AUD/USD rises to resistance ahead of RBA meeting
Updated
The RBA are expected to hike interest rates by 50bp at 14:30 today and take the cash rate to 2.85%. From here we suspect they’ll revert to 25bp hikes with the potential to pause in December or January.
The Aussie remains within an established downtrend and within a wider bearish channel on the 4-hour chart. It appears it is within the third wave of a 3-wave correction, with the 50/100 EMA’s and monthly pivot point nearby for potential resistance levels. Should we see evidence of a swing high then then 0.6300 – 0.6360 comes into focus. Note the RSI(2) is recently moved over 90 to indicate the potential for a near-term high.
The Aussie remains within an established downtrend and within a wider bearish channel on the 4-hour chart. It appears it is within the third wave of a 3-wave correction, with the 50/100 EMA’s and monthly pivot point nearby for potential resistance levels. Should we see evidence of a swing high then then 0.6300 – 0.6360 comes into focus. Note the RSI(2) is recently moved over 90 to indicate the potential for a near-term high.
Note
The RBA went for a 'dovish hike' of 25bp - and lowered expectations for the terminal rate in the process. AUD/USD has reached the lows of the range ahead of today's NFP report. And the range-trading approach worked well for bears who faded into last week’s highs yesterday, although it is debatable as to whether scooping up the lows ahead of NFP is a good idea or simply a gamble. A strong employment report could send the Aussie to fresh news lows, whilst a (much) weaker than expected report may be required to lift it back to above 0.6500.
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