ridethepig | AUD Market Commentary 2020.01.09
Updated
AUD completing the retrace and starting to form support as Trump confirms the end of the circus. Australian local macro prints have started to improve, particularly in the housing sector and on the trade side. For the menu tonight we have retail sales in play and a leg back towards 0.69x looks imminent.
On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to 0.5% and the rate cycle is already over. If data continues to improve and follow the solid unemployment prints we saw last week, then they will have missed the boat to cut once more as income tax cut later in the year. This will be enough to keep AUD in bid over 2020 and 2021 with a clean zig zag trading-wise.
While the multi-year chart is crystal clear:
Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side:
We will do a deep dive into the USD side with NFP tomorrow for the flows in the live telegram with a round of chart updates and strategy outlooks.
GL all those in AUDUSD, thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling in!
On the macro side, RBA expected to cut once more in Feb to 0.5% and the rate cycle is already over. If data continues to improve and follow the solid unemployment prints we saw last week, then they will have missed the boat to cut once more as income tax cut later in the year. This will be enough to keep AUD in bid over 2020 and 2021 with a clean zig zag trading-wise.
While the multi-year chart is crystal clear:
Here AUDNZD would be worth thinking about increasing long exposure in order to follow up the coming RBNZ intervention / AUD outperformance leg. However, this plan to attack the highs is currently impossible, because AUD markets are still pricing a move from RBA in Feb. The correct manoeuvre, despite all counters will come from the AUD side:
We will do a deep dive into the USD side with NFP tomorrow for the flows in the live telegram with a round of chart updates and strategy outlooks.
GL all those in AUDUSD, thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments rolling in!
Note
We got the break, strong retail sales from AUD overnight. Eyes on NFP today with live coverage in the channel.Note
NZD will move as collateral 
Note
A clean and simple flow in play for AUD with the news today; Note
Trade closed: target reached
First target cleared 0.690...Note
A quick chart update here for those wanting to jump in the next iteration: 
Note
We ran out of steam to clear the final targets here. A quick single, well done those that caught the move.
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