By Ion Jauregui - Market Analyst, ActivTrades
The direct impact of tariffs on airlines
Airlines, traditionally oblivious to trade tensions, could be directly affected by proposed new U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and imported aircraft. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary's recent warning that they could delay the delivery of 25 Boeing aircraft if these tariffs are implemented highlights the scale of the challenge.
The Trump administration's proposal includes a 25% levy on steel and aluminum - key materials in aircraft construction - and 10% on imported finished aircraft. This measure would have a direct impact on manufacturers' production costs, which would inevitably be passed on to airlines, either through price increases or delivery delays.
Operational risks and pressure on the supply chain.
In the specific case of Ryanair, the aircraft that were due to join its fleet as of August may not be available before March or April 2026. This scenario, in the midst of a recovery in air demand in Europe, would be a major constraint on its operational capacity. In addition, Delta Air Lines has also shown concern about Airbus deliveries, reflecting that the risk is not limited to one manufacturer.
The airline industry, highly dependent on a global supply chain, thus faces potential disruption at a time when air traffic growth demands additional capacity. If tariffs are confirmed, we could see escalating costs, reduced aircraft availability and pressure on industry margins.
Boeing Technical Analysis
Looking at Boeing's (BA) performance over the past year, the stock has moved between $240 and $163, with a lower seasonality range of $184 and $163.50 on the downside with recent lows at $128.89, reflecting the impact of the adverse political and trade environment. This range marks the extremes between the Christmas rally and the recent drop triggered by the uncertainty of tariffs, what some are already calling the TrumpDump and TrumpPump effect, because of the swings originating from the X/Twitter announcements.
The Point of Control (POC) currently stands at around $155.95, representing the average price of volume traded within the recent market structure. The RSI is at 52.18%, a slightly overbought zone after the previous strong oversold condition. Technically, the stock is showing bearish signals: a death crossover has occurred on the 4-hour chart, with negative expanding moving averages, indicating that the stabilization zone could be closer to the POC than to the pre-dip levels.
Conclusion: a trade war that hits its own industry
The tariffs, which seek to protect the domestic industry, could be severely damaging one of the emblems of U.S. aviation. Companies like Boeing are “quasi-critically” affected, losing competitiveness to rivals like Airbus in Europe or Asian manufacturers that do not face such tax burdens. In this volatile environment, it will be essential to closely monitor political decisions and their economic implications on strategic sectors such as aviation, where investment and operator confidence depend on a stability that today seems to be at stake.
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The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
The direct impact of tariffs on airlines
Airlines, traditionally oblivious to trade tensions, could be directly affected by proposed new U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and imported aircraft. Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary's recent warning that they could delay the delivery of 25 Boeing aircraft if these tariffs are implemented highlights the scale of the challenge.
The Trump administration's proposal includes a 25% levy on steel and aluminum - key materials in aircraft construction - and 10% on imported finished aircraft. This measure would have a direct impact on manufacturers' production costs, which would inevitably be passed on to airlines, either through price increases or delivery delays.
Operational risks and pressure on the supply chain.
In the specific case of Ryanair, the aircraft that were due to join its fleet as of August may not be available before March or April 2026. This scenario, in the midst of a recovery in air demand in Europe, would be a major constraint on its operational capacity. In addition, Delta Air Lines has also shown concern about Airbus deliveries, reflecting that the risk is not limited to one manufacturer.
The airline industry, highly dependent on a global supply chain, thus faces potential disruption at a time when air traffic growth demands additional capacity. If tariffs are confirmed, we could see escalating costs, reduced aircraft availability and pressure on industry margins.
Boeing Technical Analysis
Looking at Boeing's (BA) performance over the past year, the stock has moved between $240 and $163, with a lower seasonality range of $184 and $163.50 on the downside with recent lows at $128.89, reflecting the impact of the adverse political and trade environment. This range marks the extremes between the Christmas rally and the recent drop triggered by the uncertainty of tariffs, what some are already calling the TrumpDump and TrumpPump effect, because of the swings originating from the X/Twitter announcements.
The Point of Control (POC) currently stands at around $155.95, representing the average price of volume traded within the recent market structure. The RSI is at 52.18%, a slightly overbought zone after the previous strong oversold condition. Technically, the stock is showing bearish signals: a death crossover has occurred on the 4-hour chart, with negative expanding moving averages, indicating that the stabilization zone could be closer to the POC than to the pre-dip levels.
Conclusion: a trade war that hits its own industry
The tariffs, which seek to protect the domestic industry, could be severely damaging one of the emblems of U.S. aviation. Companies like Boeing are “quasi-critically” affected, losing competitiveness to rivals like Airbus in Europe or Asian manufacturers that do not face such tax burdens. In this volatile environment, it will be essential to closely monitor political decisions and their economic implications on strategic sectors such as aviation, where investment and operator confidence depend on a stability that today seems to be at stake.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.