a daily price action after hour update - alibaba

Good evening and i hope you are well.

I do the occasional price action analysis of individual stocks and today i try to get my opinion across for alibaba or the death of capital as i see it. I think mostly trapped bulls will click on this, having hopes that someone besides them think "IT JUST CAN'T GO LOWER AND IT HAS TO RALLY".

The only question right now for this stock is, what comes first: Touch of monthly 20ema or 60 ? Who knows. I surely don't and neither do you. Right now bulls are making some tails below bars but the last time a month printed above the previous one was 2023-07. I drew 2 bear trend lines which make me think the odds of trading to 60 are higher than going up. I have zero hope for this until 60 or lower is tested multiple times and it then manages to trade above the monthly 20ema again.
alibabaChart Patternsprice-actionpriceactionTrend Analysis

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