a weekly price action market recap and outlook - alibaba #2
Greetings,
Last time i wrote about Alibaba was 2024-01-30 and i just read something about a WSB 'investor" betting big on higher prices for this stock. Boi.
I mean. Does anyone seriously look at this chart and think? G, this looks like it found a bottom and is ready to go back to the moon. If you do so, enlighten me with your thoughts in the comments.
This stock is on it's way lower. It can't trade more than a couple of days above the daily 20ema and it's still making lower lows. Could the January low at 66.63 hold and we make higher lows from there? Sure but the odds of that are low and market has to at least retest that price. I still think market will go lower and will probably retest 2015 & 2022 low around 57/58 and even then it has to trade way more time sideways before one could conclude, that the bottom is in. There are so so many trapped bulls who will use any bounce to reduce their losses. Maybe it's not a good short below 80 on a weekly timeframe but it sure as hell isn't a buy unless you do not care at all about another possible -40% and would happily add on to longs there.
Potential low could be around 60 but we do not know that by looking at the price action so far. Markets do not go from one trend to another or at least it's so rare that betting on it, will lose you money in the long run.
Bull case: Best they can pray for is sideways and find a bottom around 60. They have to be quick to take profits because of all the trapped bulls using any bounce to reduce their losses.
Bear case: Bears want to retest 58 and until bulls generate more buying pressure and bears fail to make lower lows, they will continue short this relentlessly. Clear down trend on multiple time frames and it's clearly SELL THE RIP.
short term: Sideways to down - Market needs to find the true bottom and until all bear channels are broken and market testet the lows multiple times, it's sideways or down.
medium-long term: Sideways until no lower lows and consecutive bigger bull bars without an immediate selloff the next days
Last time i wrote about Alibaba was 2024-01-30 and i just read something about a WSB 'investor" betting big on higher prices for this stock. Boi.
I mean. Does anyone seriously look at this chart and think? G, this looks like it found a bottom and is ready to go back to the moon. If you do so, enlighten me with your thoughts in the comments.
This stock is on it's way lower. It can't trade more than a couple of days above the daily 20ema and it's still making lower lows. Could the January low at 66.63 hold and we make higher lows from there? Sure but the odds of that are low and market has to at least retest that price. I still think market will go lower and will probably retest 2015 & 2022 low around 57/58 and even then it has to trade way more time sideways before one could conclude, that the bottom is in. There are so so many trapped bulls who will use any bounce to reduce their losses. Maybe it's not a good short below 80 on a weekly timeframe but it sure as hell isn't a buy unless you do not care at all about another possible -40% and would happily add on to longs there.
Potential low could be around 60 but we do not know that by looking at the price action so far. Markets do not go from one trend to another or at least it's so rare that betting on it, will lose you money in the long run.
Bull case: Best they can pray for is sideways and find a bottom around 60. They have to be quick to take profits because of all the trapped bulls using any bounce to reduce their losses.
Bear case: Bears want to retest 58 and until bulls generate more buying pressure and bears fail to make lower lows, they will continue short this relentlessly. Clear down trend on multiple time frames and it's clearly SELL THE RIP.
short term: Sideways to down - Market needs to find the true bottom and until all bear channels are broken and market testet the lows multiple times, it's sideways or down.
medium-long term: Sideways until no lower lows and consecutive bigger bull bars without an immediate selloff the next days
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