BIGTIME RETRACEMENT : RECTIFYING MY MISTAKE
Updated
So, admittedly, yesterday I made some Bear-trend PTSD induced paranoia, apparently and made more than one bad call.
I apologize for this and am hoping to make up for it and with any luck redeem myself some.
This is the reviewed TA.
It's good. I endorse it and am kinda betting my reputation on it, if that counts for anything.
Not making excuses, but I'd like to offer an explanation behind the reason it happened.
When analysing ranging markets with very few sustained bullish runs, it kinda shrinks one's scope and causes you to zoom in more-and-more over time. This is dangerous for the obvious reason of losing track of scale, which impairs your ability to estimate what it is you expect to see and where a reversal is likely to happen, which makes the act of analysing the chart uncomfortable because the pieces of the puzzle don't quite fit right, but it could be due to any number of reasons, and you only know once you know, which is after it happens, when it completes the cycle and you get the confirmation that had been expected. This is often exasperated my the very nature of crypto to often go into somewhat of a lull right before a breakout, which was the case here, but to a smaller extent than it might have been later in the bullrun..
Looking at the chart today with a fresh pair of eyes and my empty plate of humble pie, I wanted to admit my mistake and make an attempt to fix it.
// Chart explained:
The $0.95 peak that just hit, was the marker I had misidentified yesterday.
It completes the firstRun leg of the cycle and, once complete, directly informs the next part of the chart, which is the retracement and usually the section my technique is most accurate in predicting correctly.
Unfortunately, there's no timeframe for this retracement and it could take hours, days, or sometimes weeks. Taking into consideration where the overall market is in its larger (BTC) cycle, ie. the early stages of breakout, my best guess at the timeline, would be fewer than 7 days. Whatever happens between this point and the end of the retracement doesn't matter, and I guarantee there will be times when it looks like it's running bullish again..
Don't trust it.
There are two scenarios I'd expect to play out for BIGTIME.
From current level down to $0.645. This is guaranteed and will happen regardless of which of these play out. It should bounce at least some from that level and after that, we'll see if it's really finished or has more to go.
The bounce from the 0.618 fib line will show intent, but can only be considered confirmation of continuation upwards if it breaks past $0.857. It may not even come back up to this level, which would support #2, but if it does, it's still not enough to call with any confidence.
Scenario 1] Bulllish breakouts often only retrace to 0.618 before making a strong recovery and continuing back to the previous high [$0.95] before kicking up and beyond. I'll post an update then.
Scenario 2] Following the bounce from 0.618, if it's still retracing it'll only reach that previously mentioned $0.857 level before coming down rapidly. If you're waiting to see how it plays out, is where I'd be looking to short. It so happens that it's currently around a similar level : $0.832, so the safe bet would be to short from current levels and hold on tight. If you do this, you can expect more minor reversals around $0.55 [the 50% fib line], $0.455 [0.382 fib line], and the eventual end of the retracement at $0.0337. There's often very little gap between the last two, so if you're going short, be careful of second guessing around this area, as it tends to get volatile and getting it wrong destroys marriages.
TP: $0.365
I'm calling this slightly short, simply because it's good practice and you'll have made a tonne of profit by then, so rather safe than greedily sorry.
If you're uncertain at any point between now and then, it's probably best to not enter. Either way, unless it goes above $0.95 and $1.00 in a convincing manner, it would be wise to not go long on this coin before it reaches $0.35 and produces a strong double-bottom.
Only once you can confirm this pattern on multiple timescales should you buy, and you can then do so in confidence and minimum risk.
Anyone with sufficient margin looking to maximize profit can go short from the current level or raise their existing entry by adding to their position. It's still a very profitable trade and unfortunately, this one favors deep pockets.
If it were me, I'd increase my current position 3 - 5 fold and wait for $0.35..
That was less painful than I expected.
Not sure anyone will read it, but that was not the objective.
Just felt that I owed you an apology and whatever insights I might have to offer.
Good luck, and since I'm not allowed to invite any DM's and have received yet another warning [previous ones unrelated], I'm hoping to hear from you in the thread where it adheres to TV's transparency policies, which, incidentally, I don't agree with purely because it's silly.
I get it, though. Managing 50mil users is a headache I don't envy anyone..
I apologize for this and am hoping to make up for it and with any luck redeem myself some.
This is the reviewed TA.
It's good. I endorse it and am kinda betting my reputation on it, if that counts for anything.
Not making excuses, but I'd like to offer an explanation behind the reason it happened.
When analysing ranging markets with very few sustained bullish runs, it kinda shrinks one's scope and causes you to zoom in more-and-more over time. This is dangerous for the obvious reason of losing track of scale, which impairs your ability to estimate what it is you expect to see and where a reversal is likely to happen, which makes the act of analysing the chart uncomfortable because the pieces of the puzzle don't quite fit right, but it could be due to any number of reasons, and you only know once you know, which is after it happens, when it completes the cycle and you get the confirmation that had been expected. This is often exasperated my the very nature of crypto to often go into somewhat of a lull right before a breakout, which was the case here, but to a smaller extent than it might have been later in the bullrun..
Looking at the chart today with a fresh pair of eyes and my empty plate of humble pie, I wanted to admit my mistake and make an attempt to fix it.
// Chart explained:
The $0.95 peak that just hit, was the marker I had misidentified yesterday.
It completes the firstRun leg of the cycle and, once complete, directly informs the next part of the chart, which is the retracement and usually the section my technique is most accurate in predicting correctly.
Unfortunately, there's no timeframe for this retracement and it could take hours, days, or sometimes weeks. Taking into consideration where the overall market is in its larger (BTC) cycle, ie. the early stages of breakout, my best guess at the timeline, would be fewer than 7 days. Whatever happens between this point and the end of the retracement doesn't matter, and I guarantee there will be times when it looks like it's running bullish again..
Don't trust it.
There are two scenarios I'd expect to play out for BIGTIME.
From current level down to $0.645. This is guaranteed and will happen regardless of which of these play out. It should bounce at least some from that level and after that, we'll see if it's really finished or has more to go.
The bounce from the 0.618 fib line will show intent, but can only be considered confirmation of continuation upwards if it breaks past $0.857. It may not even come back up to this level, which would support #2, but if it does, it's still not enough to call with any confidence.
Scenario 1] Bulllish breakouts often only retrace to 0.618 before making a strong recovery and continuing back to the previous high [$0.95] before kicking up and beyond. I'll post an update then.
Scenario 2] Following the bounce from 0.618, if it's still retracing it'll only reach that previously mentioned $0.857 level before coming down rapidly. If you're waiting to see how it plays out, is where I'd be looking to short. It so happens that it's currently around a similar level : $0.832, so the safe bet would be to short from current levels and hold on tight. If you do this, you can expect more minor reversals around $0.55 [the 50% fib line], $0.455 [0.382 fib line], and the eventual end of the retracement at $0.0337. There's often very little gap between the last two, so if you're going short, be careful of second guessing around this area, as it tends to get volatile and getting it wrong destroys marriages.
TP: $0.365
I'm calling this slightly short, simply because it's good practice and you'll have made a tonne of profit by then, so rather safe than greedily sorry.
If you're uncertain at any point between now and then, it's probably best to not enter. Either way, unless it goes above $0.95 and $1.00 in a convincing manner, it would be wise to not go long on this coin before it reaches $0.35 and produces a strong double-bottom.
Only once you can confirm this pattern on multiple timescales should you buy, and you can then do so in confidence and minimum risk.
Anyone with sufficient margin looking to maximize profit can go short from the current level or raise their existing entry by adding to their position. It's still a very profitable trade and unfortunately, this one favors deep pockets.
If it were me, I'd increase my current position 3 - 5 fold and wait for $0.35..
That was less painful than I expected.
Not sure anyone will read it, but that was not the objective.
Just felt that I owed you an apology and whatever insights I might have to offer.
Good luck, and since I'm not allowed to invite any DM's and have received yet another warning [previous ones unrelated], I'm hoping to hear from you in the thread where it adheres to TV's transparency policies, which, incidentally, I don't agree with purely because it's silly.
I get it, though. Managing 50mil users is a headache I don't envy anyone..
Note
Note
Should prove to be the second leg of the double-top..Note
// Follow chart updates here:dub.sh/BIGTIMECHART
Note
First stage complete.Note
If you're Short, stay in, so far it's progressing as expected and the full retracement looks likely.Note
Second dump starting..Note
50% Retracement level hit exactly..Note
Slight bounce..Note
Continuing down..Still on track.
Note
Timing was off a little on the previous update.Expected next movement update:
Note
Expected last run to TP:Good luck.
Note
Now would be the time when I'd start scaling the position gradually as it continues down. 5 - 10% of the total size for every 100% added should work.Note
Unless I'm mistaken, it seems that the BTC retracement should finish more-or-less in-sync with this one.. Home stretch..Let me know how it goes..
Trade closed manually
!! PLEASE NOTE !!I'm calling this trade.
Ever since that massive candle happened a couple of days back, I'd been wondering and it's now confirmed.
Heading for higher high's, so please close this Short.
Note
// Will keep updating, but it might become erratic, so be warned.This is exactly why I'm not a great fan of lengthy trades.
It becomes confusing after a week or so.
I expected this trade to complete sooner.
Most likely it'll still carry the target, but I'm trying to minimize your risk exposure, so follow at your own risk.
I'll call it as I see it.
Trade active
All good..Nothing to see here.
Neeeeeever doubted it!
Note
Scenario One:Scenario Two:
The teacup. Most unlikely for it's rarity, but the slow-and-steady pace at which it's been moving, has to make this a strong possibility. If it is, this coin's going places.. Like $25 places..
Scenario Three:
Note
PS:I mixed up images 2 and 3.
Just switch them around.
Nobody reads this anyhoo..
Lol.
Note
For now, BTC looks to be conforming to the pattern for it to head upwards and BIGTOE seems to be following suit, which kills Scenario 1.Let me know if these updates are at all useful or whether there's a better/preferred method that's more direct and likely faster.
Note
Looks like #2 it is..Would be pretty sweet if that $0.35 target is reached..
Note
Expect a massive dump any minute now..Note
Trade continues..Sell BIGTOE again from current level down to $0.35.
Note
Of all the difficult elements related to trading, the waiting kills me the most..As always, "I wasn't wrong, just early.."
Note
Lawdy.. I've been awake too long..Mistook the "23" in the date-stamp for the day of November..
Felt pretty "Godly" for a minute there..
My bad, it's only 12 days, not three weeks..
Still..
Trade active
Doubt anyone realized, but I was using two different BIGTOE charts, so if you noticed some drawings missing from the one mentioning "Scenario 2", like writing a romantic novel, here's the relevant chart:Note
Oh-Baby, Yes-Baby, Ooh-Baby!!It's happening..
This will likely be the last update before this short finally reaches its conclusion, I'm confident, well past my TP..
Enjoy..
And, if you've gained from my work, show me..
Trade active
For those of you still in this short, well done..It's about to pay-off in a big way..
Trade closed manually
Hope everybody gets this in time.It's my job to give you the information as it develops and logically, that means that when the data changes, it affects the messages I put out.
So here's the thinking that's been on my mind regarding BIGTOE.
It's been some time since the original entry post and those of you that acted on it, got in at a decent level and should therefore be in profit.
I'd have liked to be spot-on with this signal, but there's too great a risk of it going rapidly sideways if BTC suddenly explodes and unfortunately I don't have a reliable means of quickly reaching you with any updates.
I still suspect BTC to come down sometime soon, but right now, I'd prefer playing it safe.
I have my own reasons for putting in the time and effort in sharing what I read in the charts.
So, this is the final call on this trade.
I'd rather finish with a reduced win than a disaster.
PLEASE CLOSE THIS SHORT POSITION.
I'll wait until getting confirmation before putting out anything about going long.
Thanks for the support.
If you feel it's warranted and you're happy with the results, I'm not above earning tips..
Chat soon.
Note
PS:For those of you, eager to keep earning, I'd suggest shorting AUCTION right away..
It's in a good entry level for selling.
Note
Go here:
Note
Looks like we're out of the woods on this one and that the original trade parameters will hold true..If you're still in the short and have made some progress, scaling it slightly once it drops below $0.50 is something to consider.
Targets should be unaffected..
Will update as it moves.
Follow my chart here:
dub.sh/BIGTIMECHART
Note
Note
Almost there:I'll include more details in the follow-up LONG trade where we'll basically trace this path back to somewhere around the current level, but for now, it's enough to mention that it would be a good idea to set a limit order around $0.34 to pick up what this SHORT has been putting down..
Trade closed manually
Better safe than sorry.Good call nubianhairspecialists
Note
If this was ever going to happen, now would be the time..Note
AH, BIGTOE!!The little SHORT that could..
AND REALLY WANTED TO..
Note
This is exactly why I never created a LONG signal for this coin.. Knew it wasn't done..
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