Long

BKX: Subprime Krise überwunden

Updated

Am 15. September 2008 ging in den USA Lehman Brothers aufgrund der Subprime Krise völlig überraschen in Konkurs. Die Schockwellen erschütterten den gesamten Globus und hätten das globale Finanzsystem fast zum Einsturz gebracht. Lehman hat einen Schuldenberg von 200 Mrd. US Dollar hinterlassen (de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lehman_Brothers).

Der KBW BKX Index hat von Februar 2007 bis Februar 2009 innerhalb von nur 24 Monaten 90% seines Wertes verloren. Der Anstieg begann zuvor im Jahr 1994 mit der Deregulierung des US Bankensektors unter Bill Clinton und endete 2007 in einer Bubble. Das Platzen führte 2007/2008 zur grössten Finanzmarktkrise, die es je gegeben hat. Im Jahr 2009 folgte die Eurokrise, ausgelöst durch Griechenland, die in einer zweiten Schockwelle beinahe zum Auseinanderbrechen der Eurozone geführt hatte (de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finanzkrise_ab_2007). Bislang galt an den Börsen nach geplatzen Blasen ein einfacher Grundsatz: "They never come back" - frühere Rekordstände werden nie wieder erreicht.

Neun Jahre und 4 Monate später hat der KBW BKX Bankenindex durch den noch laufenden exponentiellen Anstieg am Ende die früheren Kursverluste fast vollständige ausgeglichen. Märkte, die in einer bubble enden, erreichen wie erwähnt so gut wie nie ihre früheren Rekordwerte. In den USA gibt es mit der Hochtechnologiebörse NASDAQ und dem KBW BKX Bankenindex aktuell gleich zwei bemerkenswerte Ausnahmen. Der BKX Bankenindex wird in den kommenden Tage in den Blickpunkt der Anleger rücken. Gerade für die Europäischen Aktienmärkte wird dies von entscheidender Bedeutung für das Sentiment werden. Anleger shorten seit 2002 insbesondere den DAX beständig wieder. Der Grund dafür sind 7 Krisen seit dem Platzen der dotcom bubble, die zu immer wieder neuen Kurseinbrüchen geführt haben:

- 1999/2000: Platzen der dot.com bubble
- 2001: 9/11
- 2008: Subprime
- 2009-2011: Euro Krise / Europäische Bankenkrise
- 2014-2017: Islamischer Terrorismus / IS
- 2016: BREXIT
- 2017/2018: Rise of Populism

Innerhalb von 16 Jahren wurden Anleger mit 7 Krisen konfrontiert, die es in dieser Form und in dieser Konzentration noch nie zuvor gegeben hatte. Demensprechen fest eingebrannt sind Skepsis und der Blickwinkel in den Charts nach unten, d.h. "short". Übersehen dabei wird, dass viele dieser Krisen mittlerweile überwunden sind.

- 1999/2000: Platzen der dot.com bubble <------------------> 2017: Neue ATH´s ander der NASDAQ

- 2009-2011: Euro Krise / Europäische Bankenkrise <------> 2018: Deutlicher Anstieg des Euros, Rückfluss abgezogenen Kapitals aus Europa
- 2014-2017: Islamischer Terrorismus /IS <-------------------> 2018: Zerschlagung des IS
- 2016: BREXIT <---------------------------------------------------> 2018: Soft BREXIT oder BREMAIN
- 2017/2018: Rise of Populism <--------------------------------> 2017/2018: Eurokritische Parteien verlieren alle wichtigen Wahlen

BKX:
- 2008: Subprime <------------------------------------------------> 2018: Neue ATH´s beim BKX

Von allen Ereignissen war der Zusamenbruch von Lehman Brothers das Ereignis, dass die Finanzwelt am meisten traumatisiert haben dürfte. Wenn der BKX in den kommenten Tagen ein neues All Time high erreicht, wird dies ein Signal senden, dass inbesondere in Europa das Sentiment positiv beeinflussen wird. Es lohnt sich daher, das Ende des Kursanstieges genau im Auge zu behalten.

Das 1. Kursziel sind die früheren ATH´s aus dem Jahr 2007 bei 121 Punkten. Anschliessend, allenfalls nach einer Konsolidierung, sollte der BKX bis 2020 auf zumindest 140 Punkte ansteigen. Der BKX wird kurz und mittelfristig von steigenden US Zinsen und höheren Aktienrückkaufprogrammen profitieren.

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BKX vs. DJIA vs. Europa:

Das Momentum des DJIA läuft synchron zum BKX. Mit einer Konsolidierung der Financials in den USA sollte der DOW synchrons korrigerien. Es lohnt sich daher, die Aufmerksamkeit verstärkt auf US Finanacials zu richten. Für Europa könnte die aktuelle Kursrally in den USA das fehlende Momentum im Vergleich zu den US-Indizes triggern.

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BKX vs. DJIA vs. Europa:

Das Momentum der US Financials kann noch einige Zeit anhalten.

Note

MONEY FLOW:
Investor 'fear of missing out' runs wild as record amount of money flows into stocks the last four weeks.
Stock-based mutual funds and ETFs pulled in $58 billion in the past four weeks, the fastest surge ever.
The rush of cash is inspired by a "fear of missing out," says BAML's Michael Hartnett.
The market has been on a tear during the period, with the S&P 500 up 4 percent over the span and off to one of its fastest-ever starts to a calendar year.
cnbc.com/2018/01/19/fear-of-missing-out-peaks-as-mutual-fund-and-etfs-flows-hit-record.html

Note

Vorläufige Einigung im US Haushaltsstreit möglich:

GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN
January 20 at 6:55 PM
BREAKING: McConnell schedules early Monday vote to reopen government

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced plans for a vote at 1 a.m. Monday on a bill to fund the government through Feb. 8. The move appeared designed to force Democrats to either agree to reopen the government without concessions on immigration and other issues, or to vote again for a government shutdown, which Republicans believe will hurt Democrats. The government shut down early Saturday morning after a four-week spending bill failed to gain enough votes to advance in the Senate.
washingtonpost.com/powerpost/government-shuts-down-after-senate-bill-collapses-negotiations-fail/2018/01/20/dca0d7e0-fda6-11e7-8f66-2df0b94bb98a_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_shutdown0121-753am:homepage/story&utm_term=.2cef

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BKX @ 114,14 RATINGAGENTUREN SEHEN FORTSCHRITTE

Spanien und Griechenland hochgestuft
Griechenland und Spanien können auf bessere Konditionen an den Kapitalmärkten hoffen. Ihre Heraufstufung durch die Ratingagenturen lässt Gläubiger in Zukunft geringere Zinsen verlangen. app.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/boerse-maerkte/ratingagenturen-sehen-fortschritte-spanien-und-griechenland-hochgestuft/20869224.html

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GEOPOLITIC, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN:

Government shutdown, day 2:

Signs of progress emerge
As the government shutdown hits its second day, Republicans are getting behind a plan to keep the government funded through Feb. 8.
A group of bipartisan senators is reportedly getting set to take a proposal to end the impasse to party leaders on Sunday.
ome Democrats are ready to give immigration concessions to Republicans, including President Trump's proposed border wall.
cnbc.com/2018/01/21/government-shutdown-news-congress-trump-appear-to-make-progress.html

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GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN:

House speaker adds pressure on Senate to accept spending bill and end standoff
President Trump wants the Senate to change its rules so a simple majority can pass a deal, and House Speaker Paul Ryan said the House is ready to accept a bill to fund the government through Feb. 8.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said, “This shutdown is gonna get a lot worse tomorrow.” He has vowed to take up a new spending plan by 1 a.m. Monday and urged Democrats to allow a vote earlier.
washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-launches-new-round-of-partisan-attacks-as-government-shutdown-hits-day-2/2018/01/21/0560aece-fe35-11e7-a46b-a3614530bd87_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_shutdown0122-desktoptablet:homepage/story&utm_term=.a49266656a0c

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GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN

Moderate senators race to strike a deal to end government shutdown

Centrist senators racing to strike a deal to end the government shutdown expressed optimism Sunday that they were close to an agreement — but it was unclear whether they would be able to secure the support of leadership to end the impasse.

With the start of the workweek for many federal employees only hours away, a bipartisan group of moderate senators tried for an accord on immigration and federal spending they hoped would pave the way to reopening the government by Monday morning.
After meetings with each other as well as with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), there were no immediate signs of a major breakthrough. McConnell and Schumer also spoke with each other off the Senate floor Sunday afternoon.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.), McConnell’s top deputy, sounded a pessimistic note early Sunday evening, predicting the government would remain shut down on Monday. “Right now yeah, yeah I do” think so, he said.
washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-launches-new-round-of-partisan-attacks-as-government-shutdown-hits-day-2/2018/01/21/0560aece-fe35-11e7-a46b-a3614530bd87_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_shutdown0122-822am:homepage/story&utm_term=.b05c9906b

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GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN:

"No vote tonight": The key procedural vote on advancing the continuing resolution for February 8th will now be held at noon tomorrow.
edition.cnn.com/2018/01/21/politics/government-shutdown-latest/index.htm

Note

BKX @ 115,25:

GEOPOLITICS, US GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN vs. MARKETS:
Senators strike a deal to end government shutdown
Senators have reached a short-term compromise deal to fund the government.
Democrats have the assurances they need on immigration and budget issues, Sen. Mark Warner says. cnbc.com/2018/01/22/government-shutdown-news-senators-reach-deal-to-end-shutdown.html

Wall St. hits record highs after deal to end U.S. shutdown
Wall Street's main indexes hit record closing highs on Monday in the wake of a deal by U.S. senators to end the federal government shutdown.
Based on the latest available data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 142.95 points, or 0.55 percent, to 26,214.67, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 22.68 points, or 0.81 percent, to 2,832.98 and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) added 71.65 points, or 0.98 percent, to 7,408.03. investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stock-futures-slightly-lower-as-us-shutdown-enters-third-day-1133067

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BKX: Neues ATH (1. Kursziel) in Reichweite:

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BKX @ 115,88.

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BKX @ 116,41

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BKX @ 116,22 (- 0,19). Financials reagieren nicht auf Kursrutsch von SPX und DJIA.

Dow falls about 180 points, marks worst daily drop in nearly 5 months as Wall Street focuses on rising yields
marketwatch.com/story/dow-falls-about-180-points-marks-worst-daily-drop-in-nearly-5-months-as-wall-street-focuses-on-rising-yields-2018-01-29

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BKX @ 115.30 Five Star Leader Vows to Help Italian Banks Grab Creditor Assets

Candidate criticizes ‘Byzantine laws’ slowing down courts

Di Maio speaks in interview with Bloomberg Television

Luigi Di Maio, leader of Italy’s anti-establishment Five Star Movement, promised to make it easier for the country’s ailing banks to recover assets from troubled creditors as he sought to win over international investors ahead of the March 4 election. Speaking to Bloomberg Television in London Wednesday, 31-year-old Di Maio said some 30 fund managers and analysts from the U.S., Britain, France and Switzerland had urged him to speed up the Italian judicial system at a closed-door meeting earlier in the day.
Non-performing loans “take too many years to be recovered, we’re talking about seven to 10 years,” Di Maio said. “We must shorten the time it takes to recover them by eliminating a series of Byzantine laws.”
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-01/five-star-leader-vows-to-help-italian-banks-grab-creditor-assets

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BKX@ 112,50: re view:

Note

review:

BKX Bank Index Break Out Today: Expect More Gains For Financials

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