Bitcoin Liquid IndexUpdated Warning Signs Point To A 3K Retest! Important Conditions Inside!
Well, if you've followed me for a while, you may remember a notorious Bitcoin chart that I published on May 27th, called "Bitcoin is Linear & This is A Bear Market Rally!" In that analysis, I showed a glimpse of why I believe that Bitcoin moves in a remarkably linear fashion, that most people have not discovered. In that analysis, I showed that I thought that Bitcoin would be around 3000 by October 9th (or somewhere near then) if it continued to move in it's historically linear pattern. If you would like to see that analysis, it is linked below.
In addition to the linear nature of Bitcoin, there are several other danger signs that point to a potential return to the 3000 range. As I've said on maaaaaany occasions, BTC never retested the rising log arc (in blue) after forming a bear market bottom in December of 2018. You can see that every single time Bitcoin reached the top of the arc, it always retraced to the bottom before making a new high. That happened in 2011, 2013-2015, and now it may be happening yet again, as Bitcoin has not touched the bottom of the rising arc since it touched the top in 2017. If history is any indication, Bitcoin should touch the bottom of the arc again before making a new all time high. Right now, that is in the 3000 range — the same area that the linear nature of BTC projects price to return to in the future.
Additionally, we have the NVT. The great, beautiful, wonderful NVT. People say it isn't accurate anymore, but it looks pretty damn accurate to me. When we compare NVT sell signals to the price chart (red vertical trendlines) you can see that each NVT sell signal occurred at an EXACT peak in the market, followed by a 70% or greater fall 4/5 times. In April of 2013, the NVT sell signal yielded a 75% fall. In November of 2013, the NVT sell signal resulted in a 70% fall. In July of 2014, the NVT sell signal resulted in a 74% fall. In December of 2017, the NVT resulted in a 70% fall. Then, that was immediately followed by another NVT sell signal, which was actually weak, only yielding a 52% fall. I believe that weak one in November of 2018 was only weak because it occurred on the heels of a 70% fall just before that. This time is very different. Bitcoin rallied 300% this year, and there is PLENTY of room for a downside correction.
When we look to see where a 75% fall from the recent high would put us, it is EXACTLY on the bottom of the rising arc, in the 3000 range. So, there are many long-term signals that are pointing to a potential fall to 3000, possibly in the very near future.
But before we get too worried about that, let's assess the health of this bull run, compared to other bull runs in Bitcoin's history. In 2012, when Bitcoin broke above the 21 week MA (in orange) it never closed below that moving average. There were some slight dips below it, but never a decisive close below on a weekly basis. However, in 2013, there was a dip below the 21 week moving average, and Bitcoin actually pushed up into that moving average for months before finally breaking back above it. So, it didn't deviate far from the 21 week, although it did break below it. Then, in 2015, when Bitcoin broke above the 21 week moving average, it basically held it through the entire first half of the bull market.
Looking at today's action, it is pretty clear that Bitcoin has broken down below the 21 week moving average in a decisive way. However, the week is not over yet. So, we don't know if this weekly candle is going to close above or below the 21 week MA. For me, that is a very important line in the sand for the bull market. While we are below the 21 week MA, my outlook is becoming increasingly negative. However, it Bitcoin holds above the 21 week, I would chalk this breakdown up to a downside fake-out.
Overall, there are many powerful signs that point to a return to the 3000 zone for Bitcoin. On the flip side, the 21 week MA has been breached, but we haven't confirmed a close below it. Regardless, there are more powerful indicators pointing to much lower prices for BTC. If Bitcoin remains below the 21 week MA, and continues to head lower, I think a test of 3000 will be extremely likely.
Also, everyone in the world is bullish about cryptocurrencies right now. Everyone thinks they will get rich quick, and live happily ever after. The market needs to purge the weak hands, and it's starting to look like that's what it wants to do.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
In addition to the linear nature of Bitcoin, there are several other danger signs that point to a potential return to the 3000 range. As I've said on maaaaaany occasions, BTC never retested the rising log arc (in blue) after forming a bear market bottom in December of 2018. You can see that every single time Bitcoin reached the top of the arc, it always retraced to the bottom before making a new high. That happened in 2011, 2013-2015, and now it may be happening yet again, as Bitcoin has not touched the bottom of the rising arc since it touched the top in 2017. If history is any indication, Bitcoin should touch the bottom of the arc again before making a new all time high. Right now, that is in the 3000 range — the same area that the linear nature of BTC projects price to return to in the future.
Additionally, we have the NVT. The great, beautiful, wonderful NVT. People say it isn't accurate anymore, but it looks pretty damn accurate to me. When we compare NVT sell signals to the price chart (red vertical trendlines) you can see that each NVT sell signal occurred at an EXACT peak in the market, followed by a 70% or greater fall 4/5 times. In April of 2013, the NVT sell signal yielded a 75% fall. In November of 2013, the NVT sell signal resulted in a 70% fall. In July of 2014, the NVT sell signal resulted in a 74% fall. In December of 2017, the NVT resulted in a 70% fall. Then, that was immediately followed by another NVT sell signal, which was actually weak, only yielding a 52% fall. I believe that weak one in November of 2018 was only weak because it occurred on the heels of a 70% fall just before that. This time is very different. Bitcoin rallied 300% this year, and there is PLENTY of room for a downside correction.
When we look to see where a 75% fall from the recent high would put us, it is EXACTLY on the bottom of the rising arc, in the 3000 range. So, there are many long-term signals that are pointing to a potential fall to 3000, possibly in the very near future.
But before we get too worried about that, let's assess the health of this bull run, compared to other bull runs in Bitcoin's history. In 2012, when Bitcoin broke above the 21 week MA (in orange) it never closed below that moving average. There were some slight dips below it, but never a decisive close below on a weekly basis. However, in 2013, there was a dip below the 21 week moving average, and Bitcoin actually pushed up into that moving average for months before finally breaking back above it. So, it didn't deviate far from the 21 week, although it did break below it. Then, in 2015, when Bitcoin broke above the 21 week moving average, it basically held it through the entire first half of the bull market.
Looking at today's action, it is pretty clear that Bitcoin has broken down below the 21 week moving average in a decisive way. However, the week is not over yet. So, we don't know if this weekly candle is going to close above or below the 21 week MA. For me, that is a very important line in the sand for the bull market. While we are below the 21 week MA, my outlook is becoming increasingly negative. However, it Bitcoin holds above the 21 week, I would chalk this breakdown up to a downside fake-out.
Overall, there are many powerful signs that point to a return to the 3000 zone for Bitcoin. On the flip side, the 21 week MA has been breached, but we haven't confirmed a close below it. Regardless, there are more powerful indicators pointing to much lower prices for BTC. If Bitcoin remains below the 21 week MA, and continues to head lower, I think a test of 3000 will be extremely likely.
Also, everyone in the world is bullish about cryptocurrencies right now. Everyone thinks they will get rich quick, and live happily ever after. The market needs to purge the weak hands, and it's starting to look like that's what it wants to do.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Note
Note
Remember to consider the conditions of the analysis! If Bitcoin recovers above the 21 week MA, that changes the outlook from bearish to bullish. The 21 week MA is the line in the sand for me, and we are currently below it.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.