Potential BTC Distribution Zone
The following VAs listed in the chart (left to right):
1. VA of current calendar year
2. VA of Wyckoff Distribution Top
3. VA of potential accumulation zone
4. VA of current and potential distribution zone
BTC is following a similar (granted smaller and faster) top pattern to the 2020 bull run and subsequent Wyckoff Distribution between 42K and 60K.
Buyers were unable to provide a liquidity shake significantly below 30K; the demand for 30K LP was larger than expected. Market makers accumulated a decreasing supply in the bottom of 3rd VA. The POC for the 3rd VA is almost identical to the POC for the current calendar year and confidence was built for a short-term intermediate move with short liquidations providing more potential upside.
I still have concern without seeing any relatively significant selling volume within the 4th VA, but would expect to see this in the upcoming days with a move down to 40-42K. I believe seller's ultimately will be unable to stay in control above 50K and the market will see impressive supply from underwater positions. In the long term, this will provide a key order block in a future more impressive buyer demanding market environment. Currently, the landscape while technically bullish does not appear to have any support from institutional buyers; with GBTC still being sold at a discount and whale wallets not clearly building position on-chain. My assumption is market makers will try to move the market price of BTC into a more value friendly zone between 18-25K.
In an effort to keep myself accountable and level headed, I believe this pattern is invalidated with any break above 50K and either explosive volume with high spread or consolidation above the current (4th) value area- in the 2nd VA.
1. VA of current calendar year
2. VA of Wyckoff Distribution Top
3. VA of potential accumulation zone
4. VA of current and potential distribution zone
BTC is following a similar (granted smaller and faster) top pattern to the 2020 bull run and subsequent Wyckoff Distribution between 42K and 60K.
Buyers were unable to provide a liquidity shake significantly below 30K; the demand for 30K LP was larger than expected. Market makers accumulated a decreasing supply in the bottom of 3rd VA. The POC for the 3rd VA is almost identical to the POC for the current calendar year and confidence was built for a short-term intermediate move with short liquidations providing more potential upside.
I still have concern without seeing any relatively significant selling volume within the 4th VA, but would expect to see this in the upcoming days with a move down to 40-42K. I believe seller's ultimately will be unable to stay in control above 50K and the market will see impressive supply from underwater positions. In the long term, this will provide a key order block in a future more impressive buyer demanding market environment. Currently, the landscape while technically bullish does not appear to have any support from institutional buyers; with GBTC still being sold at a discount and whale wallets not clearly building position on-chain. My assumption is market makers will try to move the market price of BTC into a more value friendly zone between 18-25K.
In an effort to keep myself accountable and level headed, I believe this pattern is invalidated with any break above 50K and either explosive volume with high spread or consolidation above the current (4th) value area- in the 2nd VA.
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