Have to take into account all possibilities
Updated
My personal time learning to do TA especially with bitcoin is to try and find multiple outcomes both bearish and bullish.
I have seen too many in this space get too deep into a one-sided bias and watch their losses be quite substantial because of it.
Mostly that has to do with expecting bitcoin, or any asset for that matter, has to hit a specific target and get stuck in a cycle of showing only the possibilities to reach that specific target.
So what is presented here is a real possibility based off of a bitcoin nearing the end of a 5-wave super-cycle.
Elliot Waves which make up a lot of what is seen here are always speculative so, as always, this post is highly speculative but also shown with confluence. This to me makes it a real possibility.
The main ideas to take from this:
(Note: I choose the 2W time frame here as it is the best way to present this idea clearly.)
The logarithmic curve which has been shown to be resistance through-out bitcoin's history is nearing yet another touch at the top.
Not shown but for each 1, 3, 5 there are smaller 5 impulsive waves within each and also 2 and 4 have a proper A,B,C correction.
The target of ~75k is based off of both a touch on the log curve and Gann's Solar Dates theory to start.
This would be another post to explain all together but will show how accurate the dates have been for quite some time now by the time frames I've highlighted and how they have correlated with bottoms and tops.
December 6 is near enough to Dec 1st to warrant it as possible:
The current Elliot Wave count shown on the daily suggests that the top could be in as it is getting rejected around the 0.618, but I look towards the 0.786 as a possible target or anywhere in between:
This shows a fractal taken from the previous tops back earlier this year and comparing it to now. RSI is predicted here as well. It also shows a top getting close to 75k near the December 6th date as shown by previous images:
The targets for the A,B,C correction and an eventual possible bottom of around 6.5k:
The timing is based off of the 2013 double top as shown. This would put the bottom sometime in January 2023.
The Elliot Wave shows a path of 5 waves for A, 3 for B, 5 for C. C does over-extend the one-to-one but bitcoin has done that often for its last wave down in the past.
I tried to match these as close as possible to areas of historical support and resistance.
The trend line (on a log scale) from the bottom in 2018 & 2020 does cross at this date at this 6.5k price pretty accurately.
The target is also a because of a possible H&S forming with the neckline around 40k. The target of this formation is shown to be ~35k downwards as highlighted here:
I do not believe a H&S would form based from these last 2 ATH during the year as a scenario for that would have a target of under $0. I do not believe that would happen.
The last shows that there is a very high volume node in this area and also a lot of historical price action as well:
This is of course a very bearish scenario but based off of my research it does show a lot of confluence to make this a possibility to take seriously.
The target is just coming from the TA done here so I do not think of this as a certainly at all as too much can always happen in the next year.
But I feel that looking to a drastic scenario as shown needs to be taken seriously as long as proper TA is conducted and confluence is showing as a result.
Straying too far towards one bias is just an easy way to get Rek't and I continually train myself to avoid it.
I do have bullish targets too but will have to be another post as this one is already long enough!
Hope these ideas can help and at the least show something different and to see things from different perspectives. This asset requires it from all that trade and/or invest in it.
***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
I have seen too many in this space get too deep into a one-sided bias and watch their losses be quite substantial because of it.
Mostly that has to do with expecting bitcoin, or any asset for that matter, has to hit a specific target and get stuck in a cycle of showing only the possibilities to reach that specific target.
So what is presented here is a real possibility based off of a bitcoin nearing the end of a 5-wave super-cycle.
Elliot Waves which make up a lot of what is seen here are always speculative so, as always, this post is highly speculative but also shown with confluence. This to me makes it a real possibility.
The main ideas to take from this:
(Note: I choose the 2W time frame here as it is the best way to present this idea clearly.)
The logarithmic curve which has been shown to be resistance through-out bitcoin's history is nearing yet another touch at the top.
Not shown but for each 1, 3, 5 there are smaller 5 impulsive waves within each and also 2 and 4 have a proper A,B,C correction.
The target of ~75k is based off of both a touch on the log curve and Gann's Solar Dates theory to start.
This would be another post to explain all together but will show how accurate the dates have been for quite some time now by the time frames I've highlighted and how they have correlated with bottoms and tops.
December 6 is near enough to Dec 1st to warrant it as possible:
The current Elliot Wave count shown on the daily suggests that the top could be in as it is getting rejected around the 0.618, but I look towards the 0.786 as a possible target or anywhere in between:
This shows a fractal taken from the previous tops back earlier this year and comparing it to now. RSI is predicted here as well. It also shows a top getting close to 75k near the December 6th date as shown by previous images:
The targets for the A,B,C correction and an eventual possible bottom of around 6.5k:
The timing is based off of the 2013 double top as shown. This would put the bottom sometime in January 2023.
The Elliot Wave shows a path of 5 waves for A, 3 for B, 5 for C. C does over-extend the one-to-one but bitcoin has done that often for its last wave down in the past.
I tried to match these as close as possible to areas of historical support and resistance.
The trend line (on a log scale) from the bottom in 2018 & 2020 does cross at this date at this 6.5k price pretty accurately.
The target is also a because of a possible H&S forming with the neckline around 40k. The target of this formation is shown to be ~35k downwards as highlighted here:
I do not believe a H&S would form based from these last 2 ATH during the year as a scenario for that would have a target of under $0. I do not believe that would happen.
The last shows that there is a very high volume node in this area and also a lot of historical price action as well:
This is of course a very bearish scenario but based off of my research it does show a lot of confluence to make this a possibility to take seriously.
The target is just coming from the TA done here so I do not think of this as a certainly at all as too much can always happen in the next year.
But I feel that looking to a drastic scenario as shown needs to be taken seriously as long as proper TA is conducted and confluence is showing as a result.
Straying too far towards one bias is just an easy way to get Rek't and I continually train myself to avoid it.
I do have bullish targets too but will have to be another post as this one is already long enough!
Hope these ideas can help and at the least show something different and to see things from different perspectives. This asset requires it from all that trade and/or invest in it.
***Disclaimer: I am not a financial professional/expert and all ideas from me are all speculation based off of my own research. Please do your own research as well as I am not responsible for others when it comes to their financial decisions.***
Note
The last image shows also where I highlighted an ~9.7k bottom as that is a large volume node as well, so warrants a serious look.
Disclaimer
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