Decision-time for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) - will bears take over?
Back in January '21, I was searching for ways to algorithmically assess whether Bitcoin is in a bull or in a bear market, based on an analysis of its price history back to 2011. The goal was to identify ways to spot the end of the current bull market.
The result was published as the Bitcoin Bulls & Bears indicator (here) on TradingView. The portrayed indicator, with some minor "curve fitting" adjustments, was able to spot the market cycles relatively correctly from 2012 on to 2021 (especially on the monthly time-frame).
One key finding was the role of the Weekly 21 Moving Average as a key support. The story is simple: if Bitcoins stays above this level, we're relatively surely in a bull-market. If we're trading below, it's bear time. This is how the indicator identifies the market cycles.
So far for 2021, we were trading only above this level. Beginning of last week, we began to eventually slip below. That same indicator is highlighting "bear" for the time this year. Is this really the beginning of the bear market?
We will have to wait for the weekly candle close, or even better, the monthly close.
If we're closing above the weekly support level on a weekly or monthly close, changes aren't too bad that the bull market continues.
For a glimpse of hope, have a look at July 2013: we did a similar slip below the 20 MA's right in the middle of the bull market -- only after having Bitcoin 16x its price in the months thereafter!
Have a successful trading week.
The result was published as the Bitcoin Bulls & Bears indicator (here) on TradingView. The portrayed indicator, with some minor "curve fitting" adjustments, was able to spot the market cycles relatively correctly from 2012 on to 2021 (especially on the monthly time-frame).
One key finding was the role of the Weekly 21 Moving Average as a key support. The story is simple: if Bitcoins stays above this level, we're relatively surely in a bull-market. If we're trading below, it's bear time. This is how the indicator identifies the market cycles.
So far for 2021, we were trading only above this level. Beginning of last week, we began to eventually slip below. That same indicator is highlighting "bear" for the time this year. Is this really the beginning of the bear market?
We will have to wait for the weekly candle close, or even better, the monthly close.
If we're closing above the weekly support level on a weekly or monthly close, changes aren't too bad that the bull market continues.
For a glimpse of hope, have a look at July 2013: we did a similar slip below the 20 MA's right in the middle of the bull market -- only after having Bitcoin 16x its price in the months thereafter!
Have a successful trading week.
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