Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Today, we're going to assess a comparison between the breakout above the 200 EMA in 2015, and the breakout above the 200 EMA on the current chart. Let's get right to it!
On the left side of your screen is the current daily chart, and on the right, I have the daily chart of 2015s bottoming sequence. Looking at the chart on the right, you can see that after the last bear market bottomed, price rallied above the 50 MA (in orange,) then above the 200 MA (in purple.) From there, Bitcoin produced a sharp rally, until it ultimately was stopped dead in it's tracks at the weekly 50 EMA (in black.)
Now, there are a couple key things to note about this move.
1. The peak of the move happened exactly as the golden cross was occurring.
2. Price fell below major moving averages, including the 50 MA and the 200 MA.
3. The move retraced almost all the way to the 786, but stabilized on the 61.8% retrace.
4. Price hadn't tested the weekly 50 EMA for 241 days.
5. The RSI reached slightly over 80.
Comparing that to the current situation on the left, we can see that it is currently looking incredibly similar. Price has rallied above the 50 MA and the 200 MA, but the rally appears to be stopping cold at the weekly 50 EMA (in black,) just as it did in 2015. If you have been following me, you know that I have shown many examples of why I believe that the highest probability movement from here, is to the downside. The weekly Stochastic RSI has been pegged on 100 for quite some time. The daily RSI reached well over 80. And the NVT has been flashing a red sell signal for about three weeks.
Speaking of the NVT, some people say that it needs to be recalibrated and that it could be nullified by an increase in network transactions etc. However, I don't think any of that matters, because the signal has been completely accurate thus far. So, in my view, there is no reason to believe that it isn't accurate now.
Undoubtedly, there are sell signals are everywhere, which is why I liquidated my BTC holdings earlier this month, as I publicly stated in previous analyses. Everyone is entitled to think and do what they want, but I see limited upside (if any remains) and a whole lot of downside. So, I am short term bearish (although not shorting) and long term bullish. I plan to buy back in at lower prices.
Based on this comparison, from a technical standpoint, I have absolutely no reason to believe that we won't retrace to at least the 618, which is just above 4000. People who think we are just going to skyrocket above that major resistance around 6000 are delusional. It took months of testing for us to break down below that level. It will take months of testing for us to break out above it. With that said, there is always a possibility that we could see slightly more upside. Although, I obviously think that is unlikely. Even if we do get some upside, it is very limited. The market is exhausted and in need of a pullback.
To the people who enjoy my content, you may have seen some negativity in my comment sections lately. Specifically, you may have seen comments from people who claim that they make huge amounts of money counter trading me and so forth. Well, I'm going to PROVE to you all that they are complete liars, in the charts that I will attach below. My calls on the vast majority of the major moves in this market have been phenomenally accurate. Sure, I have had a few bad calls, as does every analyst in the game, but the vast majority of my calls positively reflect the eleven years of experience that I have under my belt. That's why the haters have to sift through hundreds of analyses that I've made to find a low amount of bad calls. I didn't become the most viewed analyst on TView, because I suck at what I do. I became the most viewed analyst, because I make calls like the ones attached below. I guess when you are at the top, people will hate you for it no matter what. Oh well. I guess I'll let them hate. =D
Seriously, look at the calls below and come to your own conclusions.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
On the left side of your screen is the current daily chart, and on the right, I have the daily chart of 2015s bottoming sequence. Looking at the chart on the right, you can see that after the last bear market bottomed, price rallied above the 50 MA (in orange,) then above the 200 MA (in purple.) From there, Bitcoin produced a sharp rally, until it ultimately was stopped dead in it's tracks at the weekly 50 EMA (in black.)
Now, there are a couple key things to note about this move.
1. The peak of the move happened exactly as the golden cross was occurring.
2. Price fell below major moving averages, including the 50 MA and the 200 MA.
3. The move retraced almost all the way to the 786, but stabilized on the 61.8% retrace.
4. Price hadn't tested the weekly 50 EMA for 241 days.
5. The RSI reached slightly over 80.
Comparing that to the current situation on the left, we can see that it is currently looking incredibly similar. Price has rallied above the 50 MA and the 200 MA, but the rally appears to be stopping cold at the weekly 50 EMA (in black,) just as it did in 2015. If you have been following me, you know that I have shown many examples of why I believe that the highest probability movement from here, is to the downside. The weekly Stochastic RSI has been pegged on 100 for quite some time. The daily RSI reached well over 80. And the NVT has been flashing a red sell signal for about three weeks.
Speaking of the NVT, some people say that it needs to be recalibrated and that it could be nullified by an increase in network transactions etc. However, I don't think any of that matters, because the signal has been completely accurate thus far. So, in my view, there is no reason to believe that it isn't accurate now.
Undoubtedly, there are sell signals are everywhere, which is why I liquidated my BTC holdings earlier this month, as I publicly stated in previous analyses. Everyone is entitled to think and do what they want, but I see limited upside (if any remains) and a whole lot of downside. So, I am short term bearish (although not shorting) and long term bullish. I plan to buy back in at lower prices.
Based on this comparison, from a technical standpoint, I have absolutely no reason to believe that we won't retrace to at least the 618, which is just above 4000. People who think we are just going to skyrocket above that major resistance around 6000 are delusional. It took months of testing for us to break down below that level. It will take months of testing for us to break out above it. With that said, there is always a possibility that we could see slightly more upside. Although, I obviously think that is unlikely. Even if we do get some upside, it is very limited. The market is exhausted and in need of a pullback.
To the people who enjoy my content, you may have seen some negativity in my comment sections lately. Specifically, you may have seen comments from people who claim that they make huge amounts of money counter trading me and so forth. Well, I'm going to PROVE to you all that they are complete liars, in the charts that I will attach below. My calls on the vast majority of the major moves in this market have been phenomenally accurate. Sure, I have had a few bad calls, as does every analyst in the game, but the vast majority of my calls positively reflect the eleven years of experience that I have under my belt. That's why the haters have to sift through hundreds of analyses that I've made to find a low amount of bad calls. I didn't become the most viewed analyst on TView, because I suck at what I do. I became the most viewed analyst, because I make calls like the ones attached below. I guess when you are at the top, people will hate you for it no matter what. Oh well. I guess I'll let them hate. =D
Seriously, look at the calls below and come to your own conclusions.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Note
FYI, I could keep posting phenominal calls, but I'm getting tired...Here's where I told you that we were on the "verge of a panic selloff in Bitcoin," when it was trading at 5600!
Here's where I made the perfect call on first bear flag in Bitcoin from fall below 6000!
Here's where I perfectly called the second bear flag from 6000 in Bitcoin!
Perfect call from the thrid bear flag on the breakdown from 6000 in Bitcoin!
More perfect calls on the breakdown from 6000 in Bitcoin!
Here's where I perfectly called for the final fall in Bitcoin's decline from 6000!
Here's where I told you that 3K should hold for Bitcoin!
Here's were I called for a relief rally in Bitcoin, on the exact bottom of the 2018 bear market!
Here's where I called a bullish breakout from the exact bottom in Cardano (December 16th)!
Here's where I showed you the enormous head and shoudlers in the S&P500, and called for a major fall near December!
Here's where I called for the S&P500 to plummet, just before it collapsed in December 2018!
Here's the 24% fall that ensued after my bear call on oil!
WHEN BTC WAS AT 3619, I TOLD YOU THAT I WAS NO LONGER BEARISH, AFTER BEING A LABELED A "PERMABEAR" THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF 2018!
Here's where I showed that LTC was leading the market, before anyone else!
Here's where recently I called for LTC toward rally to 49 from 38!
Here's where I showed that the (Jan 24th) chart looked like the 2015 Bottom!
Here's where I made the call for BTC to rally to 5300!
Note
Here's where I first put the PERFECT 105 taget on my LTC chart, when it was trading above 225.
Here's were I made the PERFECT call for LTC to rally to 225 after the bottom. It was trading at 139!!!
Here's where I called for the EXACT low around 137, in LTC, when it was trading at 189!
Here's where I made the literally PERFECT call on the right shoulder of the inverse in BTC!
Here's where ETH was trading well above 1000, and I called for it to fall below 600!
Here's where i made an UNPRECEDENTED call for an inverse head and shoulders pattern in XRP, when the head didn't even complete yet!
Here's where I called the exact all time high in XLM:
Here's where I made an EPIC call for destruction in Cardano!
Here's where I called for XLM to fall to at least 0.40.
Here's where I called the head and shoulders pattern in XLM perfectly before it even formed.
Here's where I called a completely EPIC bear flag, just before a NASTY breakdown in ETH!
Here's where I gave an EPIC XLM bear flag call just below a horrendous breakdown.
Here's where I called perfect bear flags in LTC.
Here's where I gave a PERFECT inverse head and shoulders call and target, in LTC!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.