How to see where Bitcoin is heading and when to trade long/short
Updated
Using a weekly log chart showing Bitcoin from when it was only 1 cent up to today's prices of around 9k. In regards to anything mentioned below wait for BTC to close twice above or below any level mentioned for full confirmation.
Indicated is each halving of BTC on the chart with the vertical red lines (close enough to date as can't do exact when using weekly chart). The upcoming halving date is estimated.
In regards to the date ranges showing bars/days in light purple, you can see with the halving in 2016 that the bull rally afterwards took longer than the previous time. The date ranges in dark purple showing bars/days is from one halving to the next halving which also took a longer time than previously.
The price ranges in yellow/orange show the price rise from one halving to the next.
The Gaussian Channel shows that when it turns green after being red, the price continues to rise until the next all time high.
The yellow rectangle box indicates where the EMA 10 has gone under the MA 21 on the weekly chart. With the 10 under the 21 and BTC trading under the 21 at the same time BTC is in a new bear cycle. You can see there is 1 bear cycle each halving except for this current yellow box BTC is in now, indicated where the ? is on the chart. BTC has not had 1 false breakout this halving, so this yellow box BTC is in currently could be a false breakout.
The flags show where there was a false breakout of the crossing of the 10 over/under 21.
When the EMA 10 is above the MA 21 and BTC doesn't trade under the MA 21 on weekly chart, BTC is in a bull cycle and prices continue to rise until the next all time high.
Hopefully you can see where BTC will go each week using these indications and trade accordingly.
Happy trading legends!
HTBB
Indicated is each halving of BTC on the chart with the vertical red lines (close enough to date as can't do exact when using weekly chart). The upcoming halving date is estimated.
In regards to the date ranges showing bars/days in light purple, you can see with the halving in 2016 that the bull rally afterwards took longer than the previous time. The date ranges in dark purple showing bars/days is from one halving to the next halving which also took a longer time than previously.
The price ranges in yellow/orange show the price rise from one halving to the next.
The Gaussian Channel shows that when it turns green after being red, the price continues to rise until the next all time high.
The yellow rectangle box indicates where the EMA 10 has gone under the MA 21 on the weekly chart. With the 10 under the 21 and BTC trading under the 21 at the same time BTC is in a new bear cycle. You can see there is 1 bear cycle each halving except for this current yellow box BTC is in now, indicated where the ? is on the chart. BTC has not had 1 false breakout this halving, so this yellow box BTC is in currently could be a false breakout.
The flags show where there was a false breakout of the crossing of the 10 over/under 21.
When the EMA 10 is above the MA 21 and BTC doesn't trade under the MA 21 on weekly chart, BTC is in a bull cycle and prices continue to rise until the next all time high.
Hopefully you can see where BTC will go each week using these indications and trade accordingly.
Happy trading legends!
HTBB
Note
In previous bull runs, BTC never closed a candle inside the Gaussian Channel once it moved above the green section of the channel after being red. The last yellow rectangular box false breakout being the exception.
EMA 10 is still above the MA 21.
The purple down arrow shows the current weekly candle which is piercing the top of the channel. A close below it would spell disaster for a bull run.
I expect BTC to close this current candle above the top of the channel before moving upwards again. If BTC closes back inside this channel then we need to readjust our look at a bull run this halving.
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