Long

Bitcoin Topology

Updated

Highly improbably that November 10 was the end of the current Bitcoin bull cycle, because every the prior two major Elliot Wave 5 were a third to a half of the wave 3 and both ended with a parabolic spike top. I labeled my chart with the Elliot Wave structure which will end with a congruent wave 5 as pertains to all congruences and measurements on my chart. Note the Fibonacci extension congruences. Also note the Fibonacci ellipses (aka circle) congruences, which includes the repeating white 5.5 ellipse structure which predicts the next Pi Cycle Top in every case in Bitcoin’s entire history. The multi-colored Fibonacci ellipses on my chart are proportional to each other and then they all meet at the critical price tops exhibiting how deterministic Bitcoin’s future is as the topology appears to be a confluence of the constructive interference of multiple wave fronts.

Thus the correction from November 10 to ~40k was completely predictable in advance if one had deduced the repeating 5.5 Fib ellipses. The ~40k level for the bottom is absolutely necessary in order to obtain a 5.5 Fib ellipse projection to the ~$140 -- 200k necessary range for the next Pi Cycle Top determine by the Fib Extensions and the purple line projection from the center of the prior major Fib ellipse. Note it’s plausible for this correction to dip to $36 – 37k.

The red and green arrows on my chart are my expectation of the future price moves.

Note

The colored major Fibonacci ellipses are based on the line segment that runs from major wave 5 top to the bottom of the cryptowinter correction. The white 5.5 Fib ellipses are based on the line segment from a top to a correction bottom which predicts the next top. These ellipses provide a range of prices and dates for the predicted top, so the Fibonacci extensions are added to provide a prediction of the price of the next top, which when combined with the Fib ellipses provides a date for the next top. The purple line segments from the center of the major Fib ellipses through the intermediate wave top, provide another metric for the next top where it intersects the 5.5 Fib ellipse.

Here is my chart zoomed in:

Highly improbably that November 10 was the end of the current Bitcoin bull cycle, because every the prior two major Elliot Wave 5 were a third to a half of the wave 3 and both ended with a parabolic spike top. I labeled my chart with the Elliot Wave structure which will end with a congruent wave 5 as pertains to all congruences and measurements on my chart. Note the Fibonacci extension congruences. Also note the Fibonacci ellipses (aka circle) congruences, which includes the repeating white 5.5 ellipse structure which predicts the next Pi Cycle Top in every case in Bitcoin’s entire history. The multi-colored Fibonacci ellipses on my chart are proportional to each other and then they all meet at the critical price tops exhibiting how deterministic Bitcoin’s future is as the topology appears to be a confluence of the constructive interference of multiple wave fronts.

Thus the correction from November 10 to ~40k was completely predictable in advance if one had deduced the repeating 5.5 Fib ellipses. The ~40k level for the bottom is absolutely necessary in order to obtain a 5.5 Fib ellipse projection to the ~$140 -- 200k necessary range for the next Pi Cycle Top determine by the Fib Extensions and the purple line projection from the center of the prior major Fib ellipse. Note it’s plausible for this correction to dip to $36 – 37k.

The red and green arrows on my chart are my expectation of the future price moves.

Note

The 5.236 Fib ellipse (on the daily chart) doesn’t predict every instance but it predicts so many instances that it is worth paying attention to.

Note

Dao Khanh, {1/6/22 9:10 PM}
There are always too much fear at current level. Hope this can hold at 40k

Shelby Moore, {1/7/22 12:17 AM}
{In reply to Dao Khanh}
Perfect time to buy. Might go down to but I doubt it. Anyway hodling from to is okay for me.

Note

On the 4 hourly there is a very clear bullish RSI divergence. The H&S shoulders is projecting down to 39.6k, so might get a wick down to there, or bounce then wick down to 39.6k. I am buying at , in case we get a bounce. I could sell the bounce and then repurchase lower. If it wicks down to 39.6k, then no problem for me, I just hodl. You can see my timing measurements had Jan 7 – 12 for the first severe plunge down, and then Jan 16 – 18 for the final plungle before rocket launch. So thus May to July is repeating perfectly.

On the daily the RSI bullish divergence is on the candle bodies not the wicks. You can clearly see May to July is repeating as expected.

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As was the case in May – July it looks like a scary H&S top projecting down this time to 10k. In May – July it was projecting down below $0 which made no sense and thus was correctly disregarded. 10k makes no sense either because if Nov 10 was the end of the bull market then we would not see a spike down correction to 10k but rather a long winding decline over months. And a correction to 10k would invalidate all the bull market structure unless Nov 10 was the top of Elliot Wave 3 but where is the March 2020 catalyst? Only the Fed reiterated interest rate hikes to start in March (marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-end-lower-thursday-with-tech-rout-putting-nasdaq-composite-on-pace-for-a-36-weekly-drop-2022-01-06), so the markets sold off due to FUD.

Now we also have a M topping with a scary projection down to a MINUS 10k — yes a negative price projection lol. Nonsense. That can’t be a M top. Remove the log scaling and look at it again.

Thusly B.T.F.D! Could see a further decline to 39.6k over the weekend.

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Tl;dr accumulate crypto now. We are near to a bottom over next week or two maximum. Downside potential is much less than the upside going into late January and especially early February. Especially altcoins are poised to start making their typical January and February large moves up. Altcoins might have one final ~10% leg down or not.

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I am selling this bounce because back up to test overhead resistance at the bottom of the wedge fell out. Friday evenings can be brutal for Bitcoin. Probably one more leg down to 39.6k over the next 24 hours or so.

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So many factors have been weighting Bitcoin down since may causing this massive bullish rising triangle to form:

1. China mining ban thus hashrate plunged over summer but not back to ATHs signaling BTC will soon print ATHs again.

2. China exchanges ban taking effect December 31, thus much BTC selling in Asia.

3. U.S. government shutdown and Omicron lockdown FUD. Ended up just being the flu (as was the cerveza sickness but that’s a deeper discussion).

4. Fed taper and interest rate rise FUD. Fed reasserted today that Fed funds will be hiked in March. Markets sold off again as they did in November and also the Omicron fear in November. But fact is that Fed was tapering then hiking funds rate in 2017 and that was the parabolic move up for crypto. Markets do not top until the Fed funds rate is hiked over a couple or several months.

5. Elon Musk’s massive selling of TSLA stock (teslarati.com/tesla-elon-musk-tsla-options-completed/) weighing down the Nasdaq. Other institutional investors year end tax, bonuses, and accounting selling.

All factors indicate poised for a massive parabolic move for crypto in late January or early February running to March at least and probably into April for a Bitcoin top (April 10 or 13 again for the Pi Cycle Top 2021 and 2013)?

Note

I am referring to the chart at the 9:25 mark in Crypto Zombie’s Jan 7 video entitled BITCOIN EMERGENCY UPDATE!!!!!! BEAR MARKET CONFIRMED?!!!!! {before you sell.... KNOW THIS}. Note I am not referring to him for any commercial purposes, I merely want you to view the VPVR (volume price visible range) chart which supports the following comment:

imgur.com/a/PJEsN7t

As I suspected looks like Bitcoin is going to backtest the lower accumulation zone.

Remember I wrote yesterday that I expected Bitcoin to come down to 39.7k with a possible intradaily wick even below or to 37.5k.

Unfortunately I took Eric Krown Crypto’s word that 4 hourly was forming many bullish divergences and that this should lead to a bounce perhaps to 43.7k. Before that I went to sleep really conflicted between low timeframe bullish RSI divergence and none at the daily level meaning bearish trend still intact. I should have stuck to my conviction to wait from the lower lows before repurchasing.

I am going to stop watching Eric Known Crypto. Or at least change the way I interpret his videos. He has mislead me twice during this correction from my own convictions.

Note

Firstly E.K.C. missed that RSI bearish divergence which clearly predicted (no conflicting signals) the crash from the bounce to 52k.

And then although he was mentioning yesterday and this morning that Bitcoin was still in a bearish trend on longer timeframes, he was presenting strongly the case for a short-term bounce. I should have stuck to my risk-adverse conviction and not chased a small bounce when the bullish bottom was not yet established. OTOH I was telling myself we should buy the 10 level on the Fear and Greed although it has been as low as 5 in the past.

It is quite likely for Bitcoin to do carnage over the weekend and I had sold out to cash thinking that and noting that the bounce was very weak. Unfortunately I watched the E.K.C. video when I woke up and this was a mistake or I need to be more cautious in how I weight his opinions. Also he says "this is hopium" which is supposed to mean I guess not to take what he says seriously. Then why the fuck say it?

The problem I have with E.K.C. is he can not just say anything succinctly. He does not form any coherent priorities in his priorities in his presentation.

Note

Okay now we have a bullish W pattern double-bottom with a bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly. This looks legit. Headed to 44k.

Note

On the 2/4 hourly clearly have a bullish W bottom projecting up to $43.6 – 44k, along with two bullish RSI divergences. Note the first bounce of the W on Friday/Saturday was also a bullish RSI divergence but again I was wary to long it given no clear T/A reversal pattern and Saturdays usually do more carnage to Bitcoin on a downtrend. The second thrust down double bottomed creating the W and maintaining the RSI divergences. Also note the minor bullish falling channel reversal early Jan 7 which I identified and longed which turned into a bearish rising channel on Jan 7.

W and RSI divergences not visible on daily, only a double bottom thus more downside after bounce. July bottoming pattern repeating:

Note

Remember the S&P 500 has an analogous short term bounce which was developing on Friday with RSI divergences, so will presumably bounce this coming week with the January 12 inflation data likely to spook the markets again. The stock market charts also show there is more downside after any minor bounce before the final bottom.

We are getting close to a bottom but bear in mind all the various FUD previously mentioned including the ongoing temporary Kazakhstan dent in mining, which should be close to resolving itself with a combination of miners being exported to Russia and acquiring satellite Internet connections. Most of the hashrate decline was probably due to those miners deciding the price drop was a good time to shut off the miners and move them, not actually due to inability to obtain an Internet connection as block hashes are small, you could verbally communicate them over any satellite phone.

Note

Also have a massive hidden bullish RSI on the weekly and daily, where there is a lower low on the RSI but a higher low (so far) on the price going back to the September correction. This will only be maintained on the weekly if there is not a wick below ~39.7k. And on the daily if there is not a daily close below 40.7k. So this is indicating that the bottom price is not much further down. Also note how powerful this RSI divergence is on the weekly because the September correction RSI divergence was not visible on the weekly, only on the daily.

Note

6. Bitcoin hashrate has now dropped 20%.

archive.fo/https://www.newscientist.com/article/2303666-kazakhstan-unrest-takes-down-a-fifth-of-global-bitcoin-mining-network/

That is total nonsense. You can mine without an internet connection. You could use satellite radio to communicate the tiny block hash.

Note

The miners haven been on the move out of Kazakhstan since late October. So this is another explanation for the recent price crash. The miners should have been significantly moved by now and what remains should be on the move now or setting up satellite Internet or even phone asap.

coindesk.com/layer2/2022/01/07/kazakh-mining-slide-offers-lesson-for-us-lawmakers/

After all, the Kazakh hashrate closure – most likely temporary – was nowhere near as disruptive as China’s more permanent move to shut down 50% of the network

ft.com/content/086b7ec7-f71a-4214-bfa0-5644852056f3

Crypto miners in Kazakhstan face bitter winter of power cuts

Illegal miners and mass relocations after ban on crypto mining in China have overloaded energy grid

In October Murat Zhurebekov, vice-minister of energy, said a response to crack down on their activities “cannot be delayed any longer”.

Xive.io’s co-founder Didar Bekbau tweeted a video on November 24 of the last mining rigs being taken apart, with the caption “so much work, [our] hopes are ruined”. In a livestream interview on YouTube in October, he had warned that the company was “under some stress” because it had invested in building new containers and farms before it became aware of the energy shortage

Some overseas miners such as Sydney-based Ricky Thoo, who owned 40 machines in Kazakhstan that were also managed by Enegix, have begun relocating machines elsewhere despite the country’s 12 per cent export tax on the value of the machines.

“Kazakhstan was one of the first places I sent miners to because it had cheap electricity, but all of them are off completely now,” he said. He has sent some of his machines to Russia, the third-largest mining country after Kazakhstan.

theblockcrypto.com/post/129152/following-energy-shortage-kazakhstan-is-reining-in-2021s-stampede-of-crypto-miners

January 5, 2022

One local mining consultant told The Block: "For around a month, all of the large centers were shut off. Now they are turning them back on again."

Amid those issues, some miners left Kazakhstan. BitFuFu, one of the largest, told CoinDesk that it was abandoning its machines in the country in favor of U.S. operations, following inconsistent rules and energy cutoffs.

Other miners are still moving in. On January 4, Chinese Bitcoin mining firm Canaan filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission announcing that it was adding 10,000 machines to its Kazakh operation

Note

Look what is happening is that price of mining Bitcoin although temporarily dropping is going to go much higher because cheap electricity can not be sourced. Thus the price of Bitcoin must rise because miners will be unwilling to sell mined BTC or mine it at prices that do not generate a profit at the higher costs of electricity. Also all these mining ASICS which have had massive downtime need higher profits to pay back the depreciating hardware (due to Moore’s law) to recover the initial capex.

Also this process has been ongoing since October, so this latest salvo of an Internet blackout is just another lesson to mining farms to have satellite backup connectivity which I can not imagine they do not have. Thus I think this is FUD. The hashrate dropped because with the low price miners were shutoff to move them out of the country while the profit potential is low. As these machines are turned back on the hashrate will recover to the very high levels that were leading the price and indicating a huge price move up was imminent.

archive.fo/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/bitcoin-btc-miners-who-flocked-to-kazakhstan-now-see-zero-potential

“They’re trying to make mining a scapegoat, telling everyone that because of miners there was a super load of electricity,” Bekbauov said by phone. “Miners in Kazakhstan are very unhappy now.”

Ultimately Bekbauov had to close the larger of his two mining facilities, a 10-megawatt operation in Taraz in southern Kazakhstan. Some of his investors shipped their machines out of the country to Russia and the U.S.
Bekbauov is also looking to set up an operation in the U.S. But he hasn’t abandoned Kazakhstan entirely. He’s preparing to build a larger mine in the northern part of the country. Rather than get power from the grid, the new facility will buy gas directly from a new power station being built on the site of where the fuel is extracted. Xive entered into a long-term deal to buy the gas earlier this year, before the global spike in prices.

Kazakhstan isn’t the only country where the promise of cheap power has soured for Bitcoin miners. In Iceland, a lack of power has caused the island’s main utility to reduce supplies to some industrial customers and turn away new Bitcoin miners.

While some companies may be able to continue in Kazakhstan, the country will likely remain a small player in the global Bitcoin mining market. Earlier this year, Denis Rusinovich was looking to build a Bitcoin-mining operation that could use as much as 100 megawatts of power. Now, the founder of Switzerland-based Maveric Group AG, which invests in cryptocurrency mining, sees the country as a niche opportunity, even as power from the giant coal station returns to normal.

“Six months ago or even last year you could talk about multiple mega sites in Kazakhstan,” Rusinovich said. “If you look now, you can forget about this.”

Note

Is this current W pattern the same as one from Dec 29 to Jan 1?

Ostensibly not. Note the lack of bullish RSI divergence on the highs in the prior instance. And note the much less bullish volume structure. The current instance has a bullish surge in volume come off the bottom of the second thrust down of the W which was not present in the prior instance. Whereas the prior instance had a bull trap, fake out surge in volume BEFORE the first and second thrusts down, which was not present in the current instance. IOW, the volume profiles are inverted now to bullish from bearish in the prior instance.

Who else does analysis like this? Nobody I know of on the entire Internet.

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CryptoMo points out (in his video today) that if Bitcoin doesn’t close today which is last day of the week, above 44k, then every time Bitcoin closed a weekly below the weekly EMA ribbons there was massive downside move that followed.

I have the weekly EMA ribbons at 43.7k which coincides to my W pattern projection:

So maybe that move up is imminent.

P.S. my infantile nickname was Mo. I guess short for Moore or one of the Three Stooges.

Note

imgur.com/a/z1zRTQk

Three Peaks and Domed House makes less sense because it would have to close weekly below EMA ribbons which would be a crypto winter with the exception of March 2020 as shown.

Note don’t need to close the weekly exactly above bottom of ribbons just near to it as was case in July.

Note

2018 – 2019 wasn’t a Three Peaks and Domed House. It was a lower high on the second peak. Bitcoin was still in a bear market crypto winter.

Also in 2019 there were multiple weekly closes well below the weekly EMA ribbons. That indicates it was still in a bear market. We do not have that situation in 2021, because still in a bull market. Bitcoin bull markets don’t end with a flattening, M double top that just rolls over as in November. No. Bitcoin bull markets end with a parabolic blowoff peak.

This sort of fearful imagination is what we need near a bottom.

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Bitcoin never disappoints us with maximum drama.

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Bitcoin making a go at it right now. Has to get through those 2 hourly EMA ribbons.

Needs to push well into the 4 hourly ribbons at least with a spike up as it did in late December before crashing to lower lows.

Might push up into the daily EMA ribbons a bit above 45k into Jan 12 before declining anew. Although if the July pattern repeats, it would top out at ~44k, then thrust back down for a double bottom perhaps Jan 12, then back up again into daily EMA ribbons, before declining anew for final lower low bottom.

Note the first time had two green daily candles since December 20, the last time this rallied to 52k. I am gaining confidence a bounce is very likely here.

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Eric Krown Crypto continues to emphasize that an upturn will take months because of the monthly acccumulation/distribution indicator which I posted about previously (c.f. message I’m replying to). I will repost my charts again.

To reiterate note how instantaneously the weekly A/D reversed to the upside in 2013, but the monthly as in bullish accumulation then. Yet in 2021 the monthly A/D did not yet hit the top of the posited wedge yet. Also E.K.C. finally acknowledge how quickly the monthly A/D reverse direction from Jan to Feb 2020 heading into the cerveza sickness crash, so why couldn’t it do that to the upside?

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Unfortunately after the bounce to 42.8k, the week (at least UTC time) has closed significantly below the weekly EMA ribbons. This looks bearish. I am moving to cash on my trading position.

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Some bearish RSI divergence short-term on the 4 hourly but does look like after any red candles subsequently headed up to test the 43.7k level before coming back down. E.K.C. outlined some indicators leaning to this as well.

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Visit this for the charts:

twitter.com/GameofTrades_/status/1472616620690485251

Thread Thread on the correlation of US 10 year yields, supply dynamics and #BTC

Growth and inflation drive yields. Rising yield indicates falling demand for Treasury bonds, meaning investors prefer higher-reward investments = Risk-ON
Falling yield suggests the opposite = Risk-OFF

Note

Macro Political-economic Outlook

armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/russia/private-blog-capital-flows-russia/

USD poised to breakout to the upside sometime in 2022 as Russia is amassing troops on the border with Ukraine to try to force NATO to the negotiating table w.r.t. halting its progression eastward into former Soviet Union territory.

Russian ruble volatility to increase from now to May, then go crazy in July and Aug after a brief respite in June. With a massive Panic Cycle in September.

A rising dollar indicates international capital flows into the dollar as well as a risk off phase, thus investors favoring bonds, DJIA blue chip stocks and maybe some gold. Gold is normally inversely correlated with USD, but gold rises in war time because it’s a hedge against stability of government. Bitcoin has not yet fully transitioned from a speculation/risk asset to a hedge against government because the scammy altcoins are still a large chunk of the crypto ecosystem (e.g. the HEX altcoin scam we have been discussing). Eventually legacy (not the Blockstream impostor aka Core) Bitcoin will cast off the shitcoins (with the ANYONECANSPEND donations “attack” to restore the Nash equilibrium) and become a global reserve asset as Rothschild’s 1988 Economist magazine cover story forebode. Remember that Satoshi is Rothschild.

Thus the April/May top for crypto I and others have been predicting with the Fed funds rate increasing from March seems to fit this. We could perhaps see risk assets bounce back in 2023 after the chaos of the NATO/Russia conflict and November mid-term U.S. Congressional elections.

As Armstrong has predicted since 2015.75 at least, the USD should strengthen as the global sovereign debt collapse plays out. But eventually this war crescendo will reach its apogee with a fully engaged hot WW3 with China/Russia circa ~2026/2027 on Trump 2.0’s watch. From ~2028 (or no later than 2032) onwards the dollar reserve currency status will wane and Rothschild’s legacy Bitcoin will take on a more prominent role in central bank reserves (starting with the smaller nations that want to be non-aligned to the superpower conflict, e.g. El Salvador).

The global elite overlords who are masterminding all of this want to dump WW3 and the loss of U.S. superpower status on Trump’s MAGA nonsense. The overlords (e.g. Soros, Gates, Klaus Schwab, Rothschild, etc) want to sully the image of conservatives to prepare the U.S. for its lurch into a more socialist/communist form of governance post 2037. Armstrong points out that 2032 – 2037 will be analogous to 1929 – 1934 in terms of a Great Depression and the socialist, totalitarian reaction to it (e.g. FDR’s New Deal). Whereas socialism is on its deathbed in W. Europe (i.e. the EU), its apogee has not been reached in the USSA which will not fully collapse until late in the 21st century. Thus EU will bounce back in perhaps a couple hundred years from now, but the USSA into a 600 year Dark Age later this century.

China frenetically building 100s of new nuclear ICBM silos. China can sink the U.S. carriers in the South China Sea with hypersonic missles. CCP needs this war to maintain power by uniting its people against a common threat/enemy. Thus CCP will provoke the U.S. Navy (perhaps with a blockade of Taiwan or other transgression inside the first island chain). U.S. Navy could lose one carrier in the South China Sea reacting, realizing they have no choice but to blockade the entire first island chain (i.e. most of SE Asia) to starve China into submission. The Filipinos et al as adept smugglers (economic opportunity) thus U.S. Navy forced to starve the billions in SE Asia (depopulation goals) providing China political justification to nuke U.S. cities (and EMP attacks on electric grid) to bring the U.S. to its knees because our ICBMs may no longer function because we can’t produce tritium. Lacking retaliatory defense surrender is the only option. Woes be to those purchasing BEVs.

US lays out case against ‘unlawful’ China maritime claims

Taiwan’s Strategic Value

shelby3

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