Short

My Dec. 2021 $13k Prediction Coming to Fruition?

Updated

Indications are a bull trap bounce incoming to ~35k, then a further crash of the risk-on markets (e.g. Nasdaq) including Bitcoin to bottom somewhere below the 24.5k CME gap and my target being $13.7 – 17k. I will follow-up with some updates to provide further justification of these price targets.

Back in December 2021 (and I think going back even to summer 2021 if you want to search back in my published ideas), I had identified a potential repeating megaphone wedge pattern and for my Feb 26 published idea (and actually months before that as well) I had identified a repeating Fibonacci extension pattern. Also the terminal Elliot Wave situation I had identified earlier in 2021.

So by the March 8 update on my prior published idea, I had already identified what has transpired since. Here were those charts I published on March 8:

Here follows a static chart of this currently published idea:

Note

Note could be in orange-red Elliot wave #4 right now, in which case due to the terminal Elliot wave condition, then must come down to at least 13.7k.

Note

Crypto Crew University has also predicted everything that has transpired with Bitcoin in 2022 and he is also pointing out a likelihood of a crash to 13.7k after a bull trap, dead cat bounce to maybe ~36k.

youtu.be/-msO3RUaSN0

Note

No capitulation yet on Hash Ribbons:

youtu.be/KO3pPfYQ2hw?t=350

BTC Dominance bullish (which is probably bearish for crypto until bottom and then more bullish for Bitcoin for initial rally out of a bottom), excepting maybe a couple of weeks near-term altcoins could make a little rally if BTC does (e.g. the potential bull trap rally for Bitcoin to ~35k might see altcoins make the final attempt to not drown and rally a bit more than Bitcoin).

Altcoins likely to be decimated this summer. Luna was probably the canary in the coal mine so to speak.

youtu.be/srR_fEgCBXI?t=145

Note

I have consistently since March been saying that Game of Trades is too premature in his expectation that the markets will turn back to risk-on. His thesis is that price inflation spiked and thus price inflation and Treasury interest rates have peaked and will start rolling over. Also that the Fed will have to back off being as hawkish as the market is pricing in. Actually I think this is eventually going to be correct, because we even have the Repo Crisis exploding again as it did late in 2018 as the Fed’s tightening is causing banks to not trust each other (fearing liquidity crisis).

youtube.com/results?search_query=game+of+trades

Problem is that the indicators GoT relies on such as breadth of stocks above their moving averages, have not hit rock bottom yet. And the VIX still needs to shoot up closer to 48. I sent my VIX chart to GoT, but he is sticking to his VIX interpretation which I think is wrong. It is summer time and people want to be sell and go away on vacation. And Biden is trying as hard as he can to inflame the Ukraine Civil War to turn it into a world war, so another redux of fear is possible.

Essentially what GoT may be missing could be a rotation out of risk-on to more conservative stocks near-term. And that along with another round of spiking fear can get the risk-on assets sold off to the levels that BlackRock wants before it tells the Fed to start printing again and hand it all the money to front-run the market as they did for the cerveza sickness market crash in 2020.

Note

Eventually GoT is going to be correct. But is he still too premature?

In his last video he did speculate about a potential bounce and then maybe a retest of lows. Also he has started to admit it could take the entire summer to form the bottom.

Note

As Crypto Crew University astutely points out that if we get a weekly and especially monthly closing below the shoulder of that what appears to be a M pattern, then it is projecting down to either below $0 on a price projection basis or ~$14 – 17k on a percentage projection basis.

So Garth Brooks ends up being correct after all.

There is probably still a lot of ponzi leverage wrapped up in DeFi. So razing that could bring about these crazy low prices while decimating altcoins.

Now that we’re clearly in a bear market, then bear markets never resolve until altcoins are universally hated and written off for dead.

Note

After any bull trap bounce, extreme downside in crypto is likely. BEWARE.

Also I am not feeling that confident about Tether. A collapse of Tether could help drive a crash, but more likely the failure of Tether is in 2023 to start a massive crypto winter after the top of Elliot wave #5. Also likely to see regulations on stable coins in 2022 and/or 2023.

You absolutely want to get out of all altcoins after any small rally.

Altcoin season won’t be until at least 2023 if at all. The FOMO may be muted and shift from DeFi to NFTs and which future blockchain can compete with Bitcoin for DApps. There will be a lot of new projects coming out for the Lightning Network and Taproot on Bitcoin to provide for the 2023 bubble.

Note

Why not June for the final capitulation? I think we need to wait until next week or two for the bull trap bounce to 35k first?

Note there is an argument that can be made that already bottomed.

If Bitcoin gets over 40k, then I start to think maybe already bottomed.

Note

Here’s ADA as an example. Might bounce to $0.75, but it has lost its bullish channel and lost the last line of cliff hanging support. Next levels of support at $0.10 and $0.03!! 😱

OTOH, I suppose one could make an argument for it possibly rally back up to the bottom of the channel it fell out of ~$2 – 2.50. Note the beaish H&S or M pattern has a percentage projection that was already hit, possibly being the bottom. The price projection of it though could be anywhere between the recent low and $0.

ADA is bouncing off the first natural horizontal support as shown, but with proportionality of recent declines factored, then a decline of Bitcoin to the $14 – 17k level could bring ADA down to $0.16 – 0.20 at the next level of more significant horizontal support.

Note

Edit again to add Fibonacci retracement levels. I bet $0.10 – 0.16 incoming.

Note

Fibonacci retracement levels for Bitcoin.

Note

Someone wrote:

I think there was not enough fear in markets or capitulation for the bottom..vix needs to spike over 40 or so

Something very rotten is behind the curtain..they could proclaim new 'pandemic' maybe

Note

DOGE headed down to one cents ($0.01)?

Seems someone could get rich (or go broke) shorting this.

Note

LTC already hit its 0.618 if we measure from March 2020. LTC was the first major shitcoin ever, so maybe we should measure from further back? Then it gets scarier. Either that or the markets have already bottomed. So let’s keep on open mind to see if Bitcoin can get back above 40k, in which case the bottom may be behind us already (I doubt it).

All these altcoins are going to $0 over next few years.

Looks like maybe a bounce incoming to $100 and if I was hodling that I would sell at $100 and just accept the shame of not selling above $300 on the two opportunities over the past 4 years.

Note

is USDT going like LUNA ? they are holding capital in commercial assets ..if nasdaq is going to crash the same will happen with USDT

Yes I cited the Bloomberg article in the Bitcoin section of my Gist. But maybe not until 2023. Tether is the elephant. Maybe it does not die yet? Note Tether may be backed by bonds that are actually backed by crypto and real estate in China.

Well DOGE looks like it could bounce from that horizontal support, but the problem is all the altcoins are so egregiously overinflated that their significant horizontal support levels are far below. They are all essentially ponzi bubbles.

Note

youtu.be/NIiyUXQGXy4

Bitcoin going to after a rally to ~?

Note

GoT notes the divergence of the VIX and S&P, and the 8 weeks of red candles in 2001 was followed by a bull trap rally. He needs to be more wary though of continued downside after the rally.

youtube.com/watch?v=5MdgCLMigrU&lc=UgxNVv2u0eSDXfSmG154AaABAg

You need to factor in the Monkeypox blackswan. There will be a bounce here, but likely a deeper crash in June. Looks like Bitcoin is going to , so that does not bode well for the Nasdaq. The West is intentionally fomenting WW3 in Europe and also with China. Also factor in the rotation out of speculative technology and to safer haven stocks.

Note

GoT also featured this chart. I have added some reddish lines to point out that his bullish interpretation isn’t the only possible interpretation.

Note

I still think Bitcoin will fill that 35k CME gap. After that look out below as very, very bad crash coming.

Note

I am eyeing DOT to outperform on the next leg up of this bull trap rally over next week or so. Possible upside is $14 compared with $0.75 for ADA and ~$10 for DOGE.

Economic data looks good. Rally should continue. Bitcoin will fill that 35k CME gap.

finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-may-31-2022-111708003.html

Here’s the reality that hits after this bull trap bounce.

cnn.com/2022/05/31/investing/stock-market-investing-trading/index.html

finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-thinks-stock-market-164237543.html

Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, also thinks the S&P 500 will decline to 3,400 to 3,500, but told clients in a note that it’s “probably a late summer or early fall event,” and before that the equities benchmark will bounce between 3,800 and 4,250.

[…]

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, pointed out how the S&P 500 was due for rally as its price-to-earnings ratio based on forward 12-month estimates reached 16.8, the lowest reading since early April 2020 and 1.1% below a two-decade average.

“The market was primed for at least a short-term snap-back,” Stovall told clients in a note. “We remain skeptical of this rally’s sustainability.”

That said, the S&P 500 is likely “closer to a bottom than a top”, according to Ari Wald, head of technical analysis at Oppenheimer, as several of the firm’s market-bottom indicators near their targeted thresholds. The S&P 500, for instance, tallied a peak-to-trough decline of 21% during intraday trading on May 20.

Still, weak market breadth may herald further declines for U.S. stocks in the near term as fewer stocks moving major indexes higher.

“We’re assuming that the S&P 500 overshot to the downside in May, and recent stabilization has positioned the index for counter-trend relief,” Wald told clients. “We also believe this year’s downturn requires additional time over the coming months, and that relief rallies are likely to be sold until an established base is presented.”

Note

More evidence that Bitcoin will fill the 35k CME gap.

youtu.be/_frgqHhUI2c

Note

youtu.be/65OaAOBawPg

ADA also crashed by -76% after August 2018, as did ETH. That was after the ETH death cross which is incoming again.

So indeed looks like ADA should be crashing below the 0.5 Fib retracement at $0.23. Probably in the 16 cents range.

Apparently the EU refusing to buy oil (and natural gas?) from Russia is going to spike the price inflation and spook the markets?

Also the monkey pox?

Then by September the Fed is going to become less hawkish will give us a bounce.

I am not clear if we get the entire capitulation before September. I think so, unlike in 2018, when the final capitulation was December.

So after this current bounce make sure you sell everything and absolutely do not try to catch the falling knives. Do not buy Bitcoin 28k. Wait.

That video is calling for ETH to drop to $590.

I just did the measurements and looks like ETH could rally to $2200 then drop to $550 over next few months.

Indeed this is looking like Bitcoin below 17k.

This bull trap will be the last chance to get out.

Note

Came all the way back down to backtest the breakout.

Still think going to close that 35k CME gap before going lower.

Note

Very important video. Watch on double speed.

Essentially this indicator says the bottom in Bitcoin will probably be end of June.

youtu.be/bgEEIeth-k8

Essentially he thinks maybe one more small bull trap move up, then a significant capitulation crash and that will be the bottom for Bitcoin.

Note

Okay taking that together with his previous videos (also factoring in Martin Armstrong’s recent private blogs), what is not clear is if the incoming capitulation crash expected later in June after the bull trap bounce, is the final capitulation. Or whether there will be a bounce for two months into September, then final capitulation in Oct. Note the purple rectangle for the comparable action back in 2018. in 2018, there were two capitulations after the current juncture. Note Armstrong also mentioned Bitcoin to decline to 20k.

Note

The posited, bearish H&S is projecting down to between $16 – 19k. That posited H&S is not text book nor well formed. Remember there’s also a 24.5k CME gap that hasn’t filled yet. Based on this and the Fib levels, my guess is Bitcoin will bottom between $17 – 23k at the end of June. Forget 13k. Which is a decline of ~23 – 42% from current levels. Or ~33 – 51% decline if from a bounce to 35k.

In 2018, ETH dropped ~20 – 33% more than BTC during worst phases but overall only ~12% more. So a decline of ~28 or 31% up to 50 or 56% incoming for ETH from current levels. Although on the overall decline ~74 – 85% decline. So I am inclined to believe ETH will bottom at 0.382 just above $1000 instead of crashing to $600.

ADA maybe down to the 0.5 Fib ~$0.24.

Note

I mentioned that maybe the Terminal Impulse {3} wave had completed, which requires wave {4} to drop below 14k. Given the situation the Fed is in, I thus believe the outlook is much worse. After a bounce to ~50k by Sept (retracing 0.786 as it did in 2019) after June crash, then another crash to fill the 9.8k CME gap. That crash will force the Fed to turn back on the money printers but the global situation is too dire to send markets into the stratosphere again. We’ve got to be wise with buys and sells to survive in the markets from here on. My prior idea was too optimistic.

Note

youtu.be/Rz0B7ZbGpAc?t=591

This is also indicating that the rally will begin in July. ~200 days from January for RSI get back into bullish territory.

But I am positing that something has changed for crypto, and it will not stay in the bullish territory and will crash back again unlike the prior two cycles.

Remember GoT pointed out last month that the markets will under perform the next 10 years as compared to the prior 10 years. But I have a more specific T/A reason for crypto in addition to the Terminal Impulse wave I already noted…

Note

youtu.be/XuuiO9ypx1U?t=80

And notice something has changed!

BTC has lost its ability to stay within the exponential growth bands.

Different ways to fit log curves, but essentially all have BTC falling out of the curves and becoming overhead resistance in 2023. Last chart below has BTC peaking ~16×, 8×, 4× above upper green curve. Thus 2 × 40k in 2023 would 80k top for wave {5}.

Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve: 29k$ as a potential bottom

BTC Log Growth Curves: Expanding Cycles & Diminishing Returns

Note

Maybe only crash to later this year, then after wave {5} to ~$80+k, then the ANYONECANSPEND attack to fill that 9.8k CME gap? That attack providing the new momentum to propel BTC higher?

Note

In comparison, gold looks more stable with a Cup&Handle that is projecting to $2500 – $3000. It will probably approach 5k over this decade. Bitcoin is still going to outperform if sell the rallies and reload at low prices. If don’t sell the crypto rallies then crypto may underperform, excepting the possibility of the ANYONECANSPEND attack propelling BTC much higher although nobody knows when or if that will occur and what the ramifications will be. Problem is that eventually it may become problematic to sell crypto with all sorts of increased government regulations.

Note

So note the 0.382 Fib was the bottom in 2018, so that would be ~23k. The 200 DMA is 22k. So 17k is not out of the realm of possibility but I am doubting it. I think instead a rally to $48+k into September, then a crash after that to fill back to $13 – 17k.

Any thoughts?

Note

So ETH is bottom $1074 in June, then rally to $2300 before the posited crash in which ETH could crash below $700, Thus ETH would rally less than BTC. The rally which may bring BTC to ~80k in 2023 (maybe a 6 times gain) would bring ETH perhaps to 7k or maybe a 10 times gain. I suppose ~15 times gain is remotely plausible so perhaps 9k.

Note

The good news is appears life changing wealth is still possible in crypto in 2023 if I am correct about the wave {5} incoming after wave {4} completes later this year. But you have to sell rallies and wait to buy at rock bottom prices.

ADA may crash to the 0.5 Fib ~$0.24 later this June, then rally weakly into Sept perhaps only $0.43, then perhaps crash below $0.13 later this year if I am correct about a final capitulation.

But then the rally in 2023 could be up to a 30 times gain off the bottom.

So very low priced promising altcoins could see mega gains in 2023. After that altcoins could be devastated.

Note

Has this T/A I posted today been helpful to any of you?

Essentially I think the Fed is trapped because if they slam the brakes on the economy then the Repo market could blow up. So if the spike in inflation moderates a bit this summer then speculation about Fed becoming less hawkish by September may be enough to provide for that rally that the charts seem to say will follow the June capitulation.

Capitulation later in June will be just maximum fear about inflation.

But after a rally into September or so, inflation is likely to remain persistent, so the Fed is unlikely to become too dovish into a rally. The economy could start to roll over, Biden could launch this proxy war in Iran that Armstrong has been writing about in the private blogs which would send oil to $200.

So that shock could be what causes the Panic Cycle crash I am expecting after September. That crash would force the Fed into turning on the money printing with inflation running hot. So we could get a rally in 2023 with the Fed essentially abandoning its dual mandate being forced to defend the economy and markets at the cost of fighting inflation.

Maybe also the Demonrats lose Congressional seats at the 2022 mid-terms in November. The belief is that even Republicans would maintain the war stance that Biden has been pushing. But Republicans would probably block some of the green energy crap.

In any case, my thesis is that Fed will be forced to become more dovish in 2023 and that is what will lead to a significant rally. But I am not convinced that any capitulation low in June is the final bottom of this correction. Although a significant rally from a June capitulation into September seems plausible.

Risk markets can’t go on to make new highs until the Fed is forced to print money again. I can’t see the Fed forced to print money until there is a serious collapse in the markets and/or economy.

The crash after September could be the start of the war in Iran.

Note

youtu.be/BxgoHfayQwE?t=857

My interpretation of this 1.272 retracement level, is that it was already rallied from summer 2021 and failed in November. Thus it’s no longer in play. But it’s a nice hopium that BTC could rally from here to 169k. That hopium will help drive the rally to ~50k from the incoming June bottom to September.

youtu.be/BxgoHfayQwE?t=939

Accumulation/Distribution indicator says the final low not in yet, and pattern of 2018/19 might repeat as I’m positing with bounce off June capitulation to 50k, then deep capitulation later this year making final bottom for rally into 2023 to 80k based on Fed forced print money again.

Note

youtu.be/alJ0u7X2DsM?t=142

Tyler S arguing that bottom is in or near.

Note in late 2011, the S&P made a flash crash lower low after bottoming and bouncing on the RSI. So S&P could still have a capitulation move in June.

I need to search back for my posts on Running Flat and Expanded Flat corrections so I can comment on expected bottom of that Expanded Flat pattern.

Note

elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott-wave-theory/

I had written about those Flat patterns on May 1 and May 11. Essentially looks like a mix between a Regular and Expanded Flat has formed with downside ~$20 – 29k.

So after the June bottom (or if already bottomed in May) could see the rally to perhaps ~50k.

That linked page says “Double three: A combination of two corrective patterns above”. Thus after the posited rally to 50k, there could be another corrective phase as I posited. Or as shown on my chart a larger scale A-B-C correction.

Note

youtu.be/8MPZv809ok8?t=649

Options expiry June 17.

He (Ron Walker) is bullish after that. Presents many charts. Corporate buybacks can propel the posited incoming rally.

Note he is leaning towards a new ATH for markets by Q4. But he is open to the rally failing at 4400 then bear market continuing. Note S&P could make new highs without BTC doing so as was the case in 2019.

I don’t think he is aware that Biden administration planning for Israel and Saudi Arabia to launch war with Iran maybe in September.

Note he expects the S&P to decline to 1600 in 2024! 😱 So that is another reason I have that marked that as the likely ANYONECANSPEND attack on Bitcoin.

Note

youtu.be/8MPZv809ok8?t=2503

Forgot to include this chart.

So I agree with his projection for the low in late 2024. If we can time the shorts on that crash, we can make a fortune so make sure you have a Bybit (or Binance) account with ability to short. What I don’t agree is go directly up to new ATH. I think instead the rally will fail maybe 4400 – 4600, then come back down and test the red line of support or the black MA shown forcing the Fed to pump the markets in order to reach that final top later in 2023 before starting that horrific crash. But we will need to study and observe to decide which scenario will play out.

Note

Based on Ron Walker’s expectation of an ATH in Q4, if we assume for BTC that was not a Terminal Impulse for wave {2} back in March 2020, then maybe BTC makes a new ATH in Q4 — this is not impossible. But I think his expectation is too accelerated and I am favoring instead the Terminal Impulse scenario (i.e. wave {2} retraced more than 0.618 of wave {1} requiring {4} below ) with BTC topping out ~$50+k on this incoming rally. In my favored scenario, the Fed back on the money printing in 2023 (possibly also monkeypox lockdowns) to drive one final ATH before the collapse of the markets into the abyss in 2024 as Ron Walker expects. So I think he is correct on the crash in 2024 but he is expecting the new ATH too soon in my opinion, so I will follow him as the rally proceeds.

P.S. BTC is headed up to 35k this week as expected to fill that CME gap. Then expecting another retest of lows, possibly fulfilling that 0.382 at ~23k.

Note

So just to summarize again…

1. We appear to be getting that 35k CME gap fill this week. I went long at 30k and ADA $0.55. I plan to sell 35k and $0.75. I expect this to complete this week maybe by June 9 or 10.

2. Then I am expecting perhaps starting at options expiry June 17 a retest of lows and possibly a lower-low $23 – 24.5k. I really don’t expect 17k on this capitulation — could happen but unlikely. I expect to go massive long on this capitulation, as I am expecting 50k on the upside. Note I will not mess with altcoins on the posited rally from ~ to ~50k (but this will end up being a mistake if the rally continues to a new ATH).

3. It is unclear if go on to an ATH in Q4 or if the rally will fail from ~50k and come back down to make a lower-low to finally fill that $14 – 17k level, but I am leaning to the latter. I believe the market structure is indicating the Fed will attempt to hold the markets up into 2023 for a new ATH after a scary crash later in this year to force their hand. If instead make new ATH in Q4, then the mother-of-all-crashes will begin sooner than I expect, but it will have a series of relief rallies because will not bottom until almost 2 year hence in late 2024. Whereas if instead we get a lower low in late 2022 or Q1 2023 which pushes the Fed to pump up the markets into 2023, then the mother-of-all-crashes to follow can end up being more of a rapid crash over a period of a year or less.

In the case that final ATH is in Q4, then there is no time for me to make an altcoin. So I will be studying the market development over next 2 – 3 months to try to decide which of these outcomes will be most likely.

Note

youtu.be/V3DoHw0hQyw?t=410

Ron Walker says that Fed is likely to pause their rate hikes in Sept if inflation moderates. Would that be enough to send the markets to new ATHs?

Doesn’t think Fed wants to crash the markets going into the November mid-term Congressional elections.

Thinks Fed is jawboning to push markets down for the options expiry on July 17, Fund managers will want a recovery before end of June/quarter.

An aggressive “mother of all short squeezes” coming out of June.

After 4400 S&P (perhaps by end of June) will back test. He also admits market might peak in Sept or November.

Fed paused at bottom at end of 2018 then market crazy up, but let’s remember that BTC didn’t make a new ATH rallied from 3k to 13.9k. So that’s why I am thinking BTC only top ~50k, not new ATH.

Thus Ron agrees with me, BTC to ~50k, then crash. That would still be wave {4}?

Note

I’m long AVAX this week only and here’s what I expect:

Okay the 10Y spiked yesterday which spooked the markets, so that was the reason crypto crashed back down:

cnbc.com/2022/06/07/treasury-yields-muted-as-markets-await-inflation-indicators.html

Today the 10Y is moderating a bit so far, thus a bit out a bounce developing after gapping down at the open of the U.S. stock markets.

Inflation report will be released on Friday. That will probably be the catalyst to spike to 35k. Probably need to sell on Friday.

After that expect the Fed meeting on July 15 and the options expiry on the 17th to spook the markets for the final capitulation move.

I could be wrong and no bull trap to 35k first. Let’s observe carry until Friday.

Note

cryptobanter.com/breaking-news/legendary-crypto-og-makes-huge-bitcoin-prediction

1. He (Arthur Hayes) states the bull market can only begin once central banks reverse course, which requires pausing rate hike and keeping balance sheets constant.

2. The ruling Democratic party will need to take action to correct course before November elections.

3. The world is in a pseudo-World War; an economic war against Russia. Ukraine and Russia account for a large amount of the world’s food. Cutting rates won’t help rising food costs and shortages. The US government can offer fuel and food subsidies in turn accelerating inflation and famine. Hayes notes this could happen by the third quarter.

4. The market will enter the mother of all “risky-asset bubble” bull markets, with the possibility of a generation market collapse a few years later due to the largest amount of money printing in human history.

5. “The boomers will rage against the machine and set us free from the cage of tight central bank liquidity.”

6. “It is better to wait for the all-clear signal from the high clergy of the devil that it is time to join the crusade.” – in reference to the Fed stopping quantitative tightening.

7. Just like Raul Paoul mentioned on Ran’s show, Hayes thinks the Fed will have to start subsidizing (one way or another) later this year. The tightening will be hard to maintain in current conditions especially with the possibility of food shortages.

Market Update: Like a prairie dog on a lookout, bitcoin (BTC) retreated into its hideout after breaking strong resistance earlier this week. The RSI indicator continues to climb creating a hidden bullish divergence on the daily chart. (click link to see chart)

Note

This trader is pointing out that AVAX has more upside this week ~38% with ADA only ~24% upside.

youtu.be/dgqfqcnd6UY?t=558

Both that trader (and remember he spoke about a Bitcoin Dominance breakdown imminent):

youtu.be/_ZNXWk6VqiY

And ERC called:

youtu.be/_ZNXWk6VqiY?t=11108

app.krowntrading.net/desk/cryptos/dashboard

for that bounce yesterday to be a bull trap and come back down.

Note though that ETH and AVAX are both in a pattern which seems to indicate there will still be a significant bull trap bounce this week or next before the expected capitulation move down later in June:

youtu.be/pcM8me1Q-_k?t=202

There are hidden bullish RSI divergences on ETH, AVAX and BTC at least.

At minimum need to close the trading day today above 29.8k and much better above 31.3k, to obviate that the move will be directly down to lower-low without a move first to 35k. If bounce only to 30.3k today, then maybe there will be no bull trap bounce to 35k.

ADA still bullish as well:

Note

Hidden bearish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly 10Y thus short-term, bullish for stocks and crypto. But I don’t know for all how long it will come down (hours or days?). Ideally the 4 houly RSI will drop near 40 for a hidden bullish RSI divergence before 10Y rises again:

Note no bearish divergence on the daily, so 10Y maybe to spike again after this week? So maybe the bull trap bounce will be until Friday then maybe the inflation report on Friday will spook the markets?

Note

Correcting the link to ERC’s video:

youtu.be/V2HRo2vxZbE?t=395

Note

Here’s my guess which is still in play, but it needs to break out to upside no later than early next week, else invalidated. Preferably break out Friday, which would mean the inflation report would be better than expected. Is that possible? The closer to the apex, the less well it performs as the posited bullish reversal wedge. Could just fall out the bottom of the wedge? Bitcoin has what appears to be a bullish flag in same position which another reason to lean short-term bullish, but heck these two could even be bearish continuation wedges?

Note

Here’s BTC and the critical 10Y. The 10Y could have bearish RSI divergence tomorrow on the 4 hourly only if rises to a higher high but RSI remains below higher high. If the 10Y then dropped to a local lower low, then markets would rally.

Looks like S&P and Nasdaq are bull flagging and want to lurch up to the next region of overhead resistance, but maybe not. Maybe they are losing moment and ready to roll over?

WHAT IS YOUR OPINION?

Note

This interpretation of the BTC chart is bearish with perhaps no bull trap bounce to first below 23.5k.

Short-term traders are hoping for a BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) breakdown, although you can see on the weekly chart that BTC.D is ultimately headed higher before altcoins can get very bullish again.

Does that BTC.D breakdown short-term this week or next, then rally back up to the trendline when crypto crashes in June? Or does that trendline remain unbroken until July? The answer likely determines whether BTC and altcoins breakout to the upside this week or next before crashing in June.

WHAT IS YOUR OPINION?

Note

This Wycoff chart is sort of similar to what I expect. Still expecting Bitcoin to make a lower low in June, then rally for a couple of months, perhaps through the end of August maybe to ~50k, then make a lower low ~$14 – 17k later in the year or early 2023. Then the Fed has to reverse to dovish and so markets rally to new ATHs in 2023 before crashing. Could this Wycoff chart be correct that no lower low in June and then lower low only to ~23.5k later this year? Maybe these moonboys are not pessimistic enough?

youtu.be/H28yK8tZWv4?t=192

I commented:

“I think a lower low in June on options expiry to fill the 24.5k CME gaps perhaps down to ~$22 – 23.5k, then rally in July and August to ~50k. Then a crash to a lower low towards the end of the year $14 – 17k. Then the Fed reverses course and a rally to new ATHs in 2023 before the mega crash, crypto winter begins. I am undecided whether there will be a bull trap bounce to ~35k before the capitulation in June at expiry.”

Note

youtu.be/bzG5Hd34xpw?t=183

If Bitcoin closes the year 2022 below that would be Bitcoin’s first every Bearish Engulfing Monthly candle. If so that would signify that the next couple of years would be declines.

Not assured that Bitcoin will close 2022 below 29k. If so then we will need to adjust out expectations accordingly. For example if 2022 closes with a panic then maybe the Fed pumps the markets into 2023 but then a collapse in price towards the end of the year 2023 and into 2024?

Note

youtu.be/mZryG7kP4T0?t=219

Ron Walker called the top and for a 64% decline.

He says BTC will either bull trap rally or not, but next week or so going to make a lower low which will likely form a bullish divergence.

He’s leaning towards the rally will fizzle out and will not bounce to fill the 35k CME gap. He minimum downside target is but he thinks 20k might be possible.

Note

Sure looks to me that minor wave {v} has to go a bit higher before the minor a-b-c retracement begins? Ron Walker thinks the wave {v} may have already completed.

youtu.be/KLFhJmXL8fs?t=321

Note

The key is the 10Y, if we get a bearish RSI divergence here if make a higher high but a lower high on the RSI, then it could of topped temporarily and head down which would allow for a rally in the markets heading into Friday’s inflation report. Will be watching the 10Y carefully here.

Note

Someone wrote in Telegram:

prnt.sc/eP-6eBkQOxEH

My bullish case for S&P 500. Perhaps in triangle currently. For this week support needs to hold at 4070 to be valid.

Note

So that would view the accumulation zone as a bull flag. Ron Walker discussed this as one possible scenario as well.

But that scenario with minor wave 5 so high to 4320, ruins the possible inverted H&S pattern.

Instead I think one of these two possible scenarios with today or Friday being the last chance for a bull trap rally.

WHAT DO YOU THINK OF MY RESPONSE?

P.S. Ron Walker has been trading for decades and seems very, very experienced. I am going to be following him, because he is a much better T/A analyst than me. He looks at a lot of information that I don’t have time to obtain subscriptions for and track.

Note

ETH looks very bearish. I suppose it could rally to 2200 first, but what is the catalyst? Instead this looks like a textbook bearish triangle pattern with declining volume and momentum about to fall out the bottom.

Note

Again BTC appears to be in a bearish flag pattern, not a reversal pattern. I think 32k was the high for the reaction bounce. Projecting down to ~23.4k which is the targeted Fibonacci retracement level and will also fill the long-standing 24.5k CME gap. Could wick down as low as 20.6k or 19k.

If there will be a bull trap rally to $35 – , then the downside projection would still be $22 – 23.4k. Remember 22k is around the 200 DMA.

Note

Assuming will have BTC bottoming ~$22 – 23.4k and rallying into September to ~50k, and given the ledge on the BTC.D I previously showed, it’s possible for altcoins to outperform and ETH might rally to $2.8 – 3.5k after bottoming ~1.1k.

Note

ADA looks like it’s reaction rally has completed. It could decline to $0.24, then rally into September to $1.28?

Note

Eric Kown Crypto has a backtested model which says a ~23% move is imminent. So will that be to the upside or downside? Could it rally to the upside then suddenly flip back to the downside by option expiry on June 17? At the moment the stochastic indicator is suggesting the move will be to the downside, but a daily close above 30.5k would change that. So it seems everything may hinge on the CPI report tomorrow before the U.S. markets open.

youtu.be/Ba3UTxEtcNw

Note

This inverse H&S makes the most sense, so that means breakdown, not up:

This YT agrees and he makes an excellent point about the current bounce being right at the 0.236 Fib level, so thus I think going lower from here not higher:

youtu.be/OmeuInzVnlc

Note

It’s difficult for me to bullish here. How will we get BTC to drop to if SPY is not going to make another deep drive down? BTC rallying first to $35 – 36k, with SPY rallying to 4300 makes it seem implausible to get the amount of capitulation we expect for BTC.

Much more likely to roll over here, as Ron Walker said. He has decades of experience.

Also a rally now would have ADA breaking out of the downtrend line I showed. Instead makes more sense for ADA breakout to fail here at $0.65.

Note

On logarithmic Fib the VIX has retraced to the golden pocket. On the non-logarithmic VIX, we could apply Ron Walker’s concept of the golden pocket which is any where between 0.618 and 0.786 on the non-log Fib (which may be his way of checking both the non-log and the log Fib together). Thus the VIX may be about to explode upwards which would portend a a decline.

Also I see a bullish, declining, narrowing wedge on the VIX.

Note

Two confluences of overhead trendline resistance on the S&P also including the 0.236 non-log Fib.

Note

What do you guys think of this? The VIX could do this. First the capitulation crash this month. Then the rally to end of August or into September. Then the greater crash into November. Then the Fed decides to monetize regardless of inflation sending the markets to new ATHs. Then finally the inflation is too high in 2023 and there’s a massive recession and market crash into the end of 2024.

Note

Meet Kevin says Ray Dalio doesn’t expect Fed rate cuts until late 2024, which when Ron Walker is expecting the S&P to crash to 1600.

youtu.be/DTERkbRH8a0?t=79
(oh man...)

Looking at the S&P long-term chart, perhaps we will be repeating 2018 to early 2020 again from 2022 to late 2024. With 1.76 times scaling on percentage declines and a bit longer in duration for the recession. Then a plausible matching VIX is as follows as well.

So maybe the top of this incoming rally will be a new ATH (at least for stock markets) and possibly between end of year and end of Q1 2023?

Note

I was hoping for something like this first chart so there would be a longer altcoin season again. But I think the second chart below is more likely. Perhaps we will see ATHs late this year or in Q1 2023 for the final top before the 1.75 year recession ensues?

In this case we could probably short the first leg down from the ATH in crypto, but the second leg might involve failures of exchanges and such, so we would need to be entirely out. If want to short second leg down, better to short the stock markets.

WHAT DO YOU GUYS THINK?

Note

There’s an even worse scenario that we have to be wary of. So we will need to observing carefully after the rally back to 50k. Because that could be the top of the a bear market rally, instead of on the way to ATHs.

Note

EDIT: Elon Musk has been stating lately that he expects the economy to be very bad in coming years.

Note

This ETH/BTC chart I diagrammed in 2021 has been very prescient. So this is predicting ETH/BTC to decline to 0.050 this month, then rally to 0.10 – 0.11. If BTC declines to 22k then ETH $1100, which seems to agree with my Fib chart predictions. So if BTC rallies to a new ATH say $80 – 100k, then ETH would rally to $8 – 10k. If BTC only rallies to 50k, then ETH to ~5k?

Note

Wow the ADA/BTC chart is also validating the Fib prediction on the ADA/USDT chart for a decline to $0.24. So this is predicting ADA/BTC to decline to 0.000011 this month, then rally to 0.00007. If BTC declines to 22k then ADA $0.24, which seems to agree with my Fib chart predictions. So if BTC rallies to a new ATH say $80 – 100k, then ADA would rally to $5.6 – 7. If BTC only rallies to 50k, then ADA to ~$3.5?

Is this correct? 😳Meaning ADA is going to increase 1500% if BTC only rallies to 50k. And ADA has the potential to rally 29 times? Seems so implausible. But maybe!

Note

The non-log Fib extension levels seem to imply those price targets are plausible for ADA. Note it would bring it back up to the bottom of the channel it fell out of.

Note

Ditto ETH.

Note

Stock markets will capitulate down soon.

youtu.be/So02CA53XZU

Note

Meet Kevin is thinking houses will only decline ~10 – 15% in this coming recession, maybe up to 20 – 25% with contagion. He provides the reason of not having systemic risks in the banks with subprime loans as was the case in 2007:

youtu.be/T2uwx24lkqo

But Reventure Consulting points out that the systemic risk is the Fed after having blown up its balance sheets to trillions recently, which wasn’t the case in 2007:

youtu.be/LHJpbBm0vyQ

He and Taggert think 25 – 30% decline in housing prices is likely:

youtu.be/TNJWP24iQL0

One of the very important points from that second linked video is the Fed is under intense pressure to bring inflation down before the November Congressional elections. But if inflation reduces then the stock market will rally because interest rates will decline.

Meet Kevin said in one of his videos I watched today that Walmart, Target, etc ordered too much and have a backlog of inventory which is going to lead to lower prices.

The stock market is forward looking. It already priced in the tightening the Fed will be doing until the election. So now with inflation starting to moderate, the stock market will be free to rally for a few months after the posited June capitulation.

Note

Has Bitcoin already bottomed? I have added a new trendline showing a bullish triangle and if the Fib retracement is set to non-log, then the golden pocket retracement has already been fulfilled.

Note

ETH/BTC and ADA/BTC may both have bottomed.

Note

I am not exactly sure what is going on with ADA here. Could be coming down to $0.59 only, or maybe it is some sort of double topping?

Note

But Bitcoin has the same pattern with a potential M topping, but also a bullish ascending triangle. If Bitcoin wicks down to 29.1k it will form a hidden, bullish RSI divergence on all time frames from 4 hourly down to 1 hourly. Thus I am thinking the markets gap down on open, Bitcoin wicks down, and then the bull market is on? Or is the CPI report going to spook the markets and a lower low causing crypto to crash anew? Also it’s a Friday, so do we expect crypto to hold up over the weekend?

Note

Eric Kown Crypto has a ~23% move incoming either up or down. Will resolve on average within the next 13 days. On the upside ~38k to the top of the bullish wedge I showed yesterday, and to the downside ~$22 – 23k.

Could the CPI report come in too hot and the market is scared like shit into a final capitulation?

youtu.be/ktGk3x0CsRI

Note

There is so much fear about inflation.

youtube.com/watch?v=BTXWukEQZUs

archive.ph/https://www.marketwatch.com/story/obscure-corner-of-financial-market-sees-annual-headline-cpi-running-hot-at-8-5-or-higher-each-of-the-next-5-months-11654625028
{1}

youtube.com/watch?v=cI26NrXJAcA

cnbc.com/2022/06/09/may-consumer-inflation-expected-fiery-hot-as-gas-food-and-rent-rose.html

usatoday.com/story/money/2022/06/09/inflation-rate-slow-again-may-cpi-data/7561637001/

{1} atlantafed.org/-/media/documents/news/speeches/2015/note-on-extracting-inflation-expectations.pdf

Note

“Sorry I don't have conviction now to trade..will step at side for a while”

I agree there is much uncertainty over whether this correction will make a lower low. And thus crypto lower lows as well.

Maybe in wave 4 correction now, then up to wave 5, then a-b-c? But in either case should make a higher low.

The lower low case does not seem to make sense unless this bounce was a bull trap fake out?

Note

Ron Walker has same EW count as I did. He thinks a higher low, but he is on the lookout for a lower low.

youtu.be/uglZWkSI4ak?t=182

Given he thinks the correction will go lower next week, maybe we should wait on crypto? Wait for the correction to hit at least the golden pocket?

Maybe the b wave today so a bounce today?

Note

“Didn't rally in five waves.. liquidity drain from Fed starting Wednesday...but don't take my opinion as relevant”

Liquidity drain already started. Isn’t it priced in by the crash that already occurred?

Five waves already occurred as drawn on my chart and Ron Walker’s chart? Now in a-b-c correction before going higher?

Bitcoin completed a-b-c correction.

Bitcoin corrected to golden pocket on the non-log Fib.

Many indicators signaling Bitcoin has bottomed.

Note VIX is breaking out, so maybe more downside today and over the weekend?

Note

CPI report came in very hot as predicted by that link I had provided and missed expectations by a wide margin:

youtube.com/watch?v=R4z2DxG0Sbk

bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

finance.yahoo.com/news/may-inflation-data-june-10-2022-212834308.html

wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-news-inflation-consumer-price-index-may-2022

Note

This feels like a bottom to me. The Bitcoin Dominance looks like it is ready to fall. Which means altcoins rally which is bullish.

Note

10Y has a bearish RSI divergence. As Ron Walker said, it has run out of steam. This is maximum fear with the latest CPI report, but the economy is starting to slow down. Inflation will be peaking. Also inventories are flooded, thus core inflation will be coming down next month. Today is maximum fear where everyone thinks the Fed will need 0.50 interest rate rise in September, but by next month the picture will look different and there will be a massive short squeeze.

I am buying here and now. This is probably the bottom. The funding rates are negative again mean a lot of fear. Too many people expect Bitcoin to go lower. The market should do the opposite of what fear expects.

Note

”Is your avax still in play”

You are a few days behind. I was still hoping for move to 35k a day or two ago, but then as nothing happened Wednesday and early Thursday, I began to focus on the Friday CPI report. And began to become more cautious realizing that 35k was not imminent and that downside was likely.

We may still get that move to $35 – 38k after the current downside due to the horrible CPI report that came out this morning.

We have to be wary of downside right now. This fear selling may not be finished yet.

I am doubting BTC will crash to a lower low, but I need to remain cautious.

Note I bought at 29.3k but I just sold it again 29.6k. Expecting another thrust down before the end of the market day here in the USA.

We have to be wary of another potential sell off next week with the Fed meeting and options expiry. But the markets may surprise us and may have already bottomed in May. We may only get a a-b-c pullback here to 0.786 Fib level which is ~11780 on Nasdaq and ~3890 on S&P. Very close to those levels already. If fall lower than those levels, then headed to a double-bottom or lower low.

Note

VIX has already run most of the way up from 23.8 to 29.1 with 33 being likely the highest, although 31 looks a potential top horizontal resistance. From the hourly and up on time frames the VIX already has a massive hidden, bearish RSI divergence. With the RSI higher than the May 19 peak, but the VIX level much lower than that peak.

Nasdaq -7.9% from bounce high, Bitcoin -9.7%, thus it does not appear that Bitcoin will have the momentum to make a lower low even if the stock markets make a lower low. At that ratio, if Nasdaq double bottoms then BTC will bottom 28.2k. If Nasdaq bottoms at the 0.786 Fib, then BTC proportionally to 29k.

Now if Ron Walker’s worse case scenario of 3500 S&P is incoming, then that would project BTC down to 24.5k or lower. Is the fear that great?

Note

Possibly although I sold all above 25 because I was expecting this volatility around the CPI report and next week. So far on the AVAX chart below is holding support, but that looks precarious. I would wait to reenter that. I think I had made it clear over the past days that I was positioning to cash ahead of the CPI report?

Ditto ETH precarious but look at that bounce. The altcoins are trying to hold on to support. But maybe they will lose their supports so be careful here. Let’s look for maximum fear to the downside first.

Is ADA coming down to 56? I bought some 0.585 but sold it 0.593

Note

Let’s assume ETH breaks down, then another way we can draw the chart has support $1610 which is a 6% decline. For AVAX that same support is -18%! Ouch. I would definitely sell AVAX if you had not already done so. Wait for a safer entry point.

If ETH were to decline that price, BTC might decline to ~$28 – 28.1k only declining ~4.5%.

Actually we can see on daily BTC chart that 28k level would be a better bottom because it would project back up 37k. If close below , there is hidden, bearish RSI divergence on daily indicating BTC likely to fall to 28k at least. But may hold as support?

Note this consolidation resembles the summer 2021 bottom, except note the spike high did not come back down to the low. Thus the bottom may only be ~, not 26.5k (25.4k on Bitstamp, Kraken, CME).

Note

Based on the top expected for the VIX between 31 to 32.9, the proportional moves in the Nasdaq and Bitcoin would be 11310 – 11610 and $28.1 – 29k.

I think the bottom is near. Either the altcoins will hold or drop to their next lower support levels, e.g. ETH $1610, ADA $0.56, AVAX $18.6. Given that AVAX at $18.6 makes no sense, I think BTC will likely hold and Nasdaq will bottom 11610 or higher. And the resolution of the 23% move will be to upside within two weeks.

I am leaning bullish. This is maximum FUD.

We may have a bottom and ready to go up for the next months.

Note

This feels like a bottom. Need the 10Y to spike to a new ATH, with the RSI not making a new ATH, thus bearish divergence on the daily. Almost there just a little bit more to go and ditto on the VIX one more move up, although the VIX already has hidden, bearish RSI divergence with the RSI higher than the last peak 33 but the VIX level lower than the last peak.

Note

BTC has a hidden, bullish RSI divergence on the 4 hourly but none yet on the hourly. In the summer 2021, there was a marginal bullish, RSI divergence on the daily. This leads me to believe BTC might wick down to at least 28k.

Other than that I think the bottom might be in.

However, let’s remember that Crypto Crew University was warning that the bottom would be nearer to the end of June and that it could be lower. Well he has a new video out. If his proprietary signal turns red when pops back above his threshold line, then ~300+% rally, otherwise ~45% decline.

He’s not sure which outcome, and the proportional time for breakout to upside would be 266 days (only 151 days so far), thus October. But remember his other video computed the bottom should be by 3rd or 4th week of June. What if bottom June rally into August but don’t breakout on monthly stochastic RSI until October?

youtu.be/6njOG0_eTrE

shelby3

Related publications

Could Bitcoin crash to $13k now?

by shelby3

Repeating Fibonacci Levels Pattern?

by shelby3

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.