Bitcoin Long Term Bullish Scenario
Updated
Bitcoin long term bullish forecast based on a combination of 4-year cycle and lengthening cycles theory.
REMEMBER TO TAKE PROFITS ALONG THE WAY
peace.
REMEMBER TO TAKE PROFITS ALONG THE WAY
peace.
Note
FOLLOWING THE PATH...What's been happening:
- corporations buying BTC as inflation hedge (eg. Microstrategy 425M, Square 50M)
- More institutional investors buying BTC (eg. Grayscale Investments has increased its assets under management by $1 billion in the space of a week).
- more payment providers allowing their customers to buy and sell cryptos. After CashApp, now PayPal with its 300M active accounts.
- The Great Wealth Transfer. Baby Boomers currently control 57% of the total wealth in the US, $50 trillion of which will pass to Millennials and Gen Xers in the next two years. Cryptos are more popular among Millennials who are more likely to invest in new digital assets.
- The mix of rising inflation, more money printing and growing populism should also heighten global interest in an alternative asset that is immune to inflation, monetary depreciation and political manipulation.
Trade active
TOO HIGH, TOO FAST... What's been happening?
- a massive rally in the first half of 2021 fuelled by leveraged trading took bitcoin to 64k.
- more news of publicly traded companies and famous billionaires saying they bought bitcoin.
- weeks of FUD during May and June with Elon Musk tweeting his concerns regarding the energy consumption of Bitcoin.
- Coinbase listed on the Nasdaq.
- Bitcoin crashing and consolidating around 30k.
- the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador, its president declaring his intention to start mining bitcoin with clean geothermal energy and the rollout of digital wallets built on Lightning.
- The news of China banning bitcoin mining and the exodus of the miners to countries nearby.
- A bitcoin mining renaissance in the US with companies like Marathon Digital and Riot Blockchain on the news.
- new narratives about bitcoin becoming a tool to promote green energy production and becoming "more green" itself after the china ban.
- the network hashrate going back up after the 40-50% drop due to Chinese miners turning off their machines.
- the price of bitcoin rallied back up and consolidated under the important resistance of 50k.
- narratives shifting from bitcoin as the edge for inflation, to bitcoin as open source world reserve asset.
Today:
- price is consolidating under an important resistance.
- onchain analysis is showing network adoption is trending up, adoption of scaling solutions is trending up (eg. Lightning network) , more investors taking their bitcoin off the exchanges creating a supply shock, large wallets buying bitcoin again.
- regulations targeting mostly DeFi products and exchanges that offer absurd levels of leverage, rather than Bitcoin.
What may be next?
- I expect bitcoin to continue moving up towards 100k in the next 6 to 9 months.
- once close to that level it is possible we could see a lot of hype among retail investors and prices to start going parabolic.
- if that happens, it's likely we could see another large correction, similar to what we've experienced in the last 3 cycles.
What am I going to keep an eye on?
- The rollout of Bitcoin in El Salvador
- US and EU crypto regulators
- Developments in CBDC and stablecoins
- Other countries adopting bitcoin officially
- Bitcoin onchain analysis
- the expansion of DeFi on Ethereum
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