Bitcoin ROI per cycle + fundamentals.
Bitcoin has always returned between 18 to 20% of the gain of the previous cycle in its current cycle. If this ROI pattern holds Bitcoin will not exceed $78000.
There are many areas of confluence.
1. 10k wallets have been dumping since 2018. You can view this for yourself on coinmetrics and select Addresses > Balance > Addr Cnt of Bal >= 10k (native units). They have also only been accumulating since May to short the market as every time they stack coins a sell off follows 1-2 weeks after.
2. The volume in BTCUSDT exceeds every fiat pair on every exchange known to the market. The tether fraud is obvious to all market players and the regulators ignore it because they conflict of interest. E.g. SEC going after Ripple
instead of FTX, Bitffinex and 1000s of meme coin scams that have been plaguing the space, because they are tied to Blockchain companies that promote the use of Bitcoin & Ethereum.
3. Within the Bitcoin BLX chart, the volume been declining since 2013 and the RSI is in steady decline. There parabolic curve that links all tops has Bitcoin capped out under 80k for any potential move up.
4. The market is full of froth where everyone and their parents think they can get rich by simply just buying and holding.
5. The DJI, SP500, NASDAQ and FTSE all have bearish divergence on the higher time frames.
6. The Fed is trying to pop the market with taper news so it can buy financial assets and use them as collateral to print yet more money. However a crash needed 1st before they can do this.
7. A media narrative has been set with Bird Flu which could escalate to into a new COVID/FLU narrative to crash markets as it has been a good number of years there was a lethal flu out break.
8. With retail money being squeezed by the pandemic, debt coming to new highs and product shortages causing price rises, retail will be less willing to part with their cash. Obviously there will be desperate fools but your tiktok investor types have all gone into doggy coins and scams like squidgame.
9. The vast majority of alt pairs are dominated in alteratives to Bitcoin as well as fiat and stablecoin pairs. There is no real need to buy Bitcoin to buy altcoins anymore.
10. Special Drawing Right blockchains like XLM, XRP., ALGO, which didn't pump so much in 2020 may steal Bitcoins market share and provide potential better ROI with the Ripple vs SEC case drawing to a close.
11. Late November is the date when Bitcoin moves over to Taproot. Rumours circulated at the beginning of the year that Taproot was rushed in its development and has not been fully stress tested. Vile Bitcoin maximalists got it through over ruling developers and making changes for pure hyper rather than focusing on the quality of the network. Rushed products always go wrong. November 20th+ is a date to watch.
12. 100k+ Bitcoin is being screamed all over the internet, while a lot of OG bears have gone into hiding, due to general disgust of how much greed there is the market. The last time this happened was in April before the big dip.
13. hashtags such as #1BTC #2BTC, #HODL #DiamondHands have all started popping up again as well as #IslandBoy and all the insanity you see at Bitcoin tops.
Having spending everyday on Twitter since March 2020 and monitoring sentiment I think the BTC price is 1 push away from a sharp nasty drop. It could either be a drop similar to March or a full on Bear Market. I dont think this time is different. I think the Bulls are going to get absolutely rekt for being to greedy.
There are many areas of confluence.
1. 10k wallets have been dumping since 2018. You can view this for yourself on coinmetrics and select Addresses > Balance > Addr Cnt of Bal >= 10k (native units). They have also only been accumulating since May to short the market as every time they stack coins a sell off follows 1-2 weeks after.
2. The volume in BTCUSDT exceeds every fiat pair on every exchange known to the market. The tether fraud is obvious to all market players and the regulators ignore it because they conflict of interest. E.g. SEC going after Ripple
instead of FTX, Bitffinex and 1000s of meme coin scams that have been plaguing the space, because they are tied to Blockchain companies that promote the use of Bitcoin & Ethereum.
3. Within the Bitcoin BLX chart, the volume been declining since 2013 and the RSI is in steady decline. There parabolic curve that links all tops has Bitcoin capped out under 80k for any potential move up.
4. The market is full of froth where everyone and their parents think they can get rich by simply just buying and holding.
5. The DJI, SP500, NASDAQ and FTSE all have bearish divergence on the higher time frames.
6. The Fed is trying to pop the market with taper news so it can buy financial assets and use them as collateral to print yet more money. However a crash needed 1st before they can do this.
7. A media narrative has been set with Bird Flu which could escalate to into a new COVID/FLU narrative to crash markets as it has been a good number of years there was a lethal flu out break.
8. With retail money being squeezed by the pandemic, debt coming to new highs and product shortages causing price rises, retail will be less willing to part with their cash. Obviously there will be desperate fools but your tiktok investor types have all gone into doggy coins and scams like squidgame.
9. The vast majority of alt pairs are dominated in alteratives to Bitcoin as well as fiat and stablecoin pairs. There is no real need to buy Bitcoin to buy altcoins anymore.
10. Special Drawing Right blockchains like XLM, XRP., ALGO, which didn't pump so much in 2020 may steal Bitcoins market share and provide potential better ROI with the Ripple vs SEC case drawing to a close.
11. Late November is the date when Bitcoin moves over to Taproot. Rumours circulated at the beginning of the year that Taproot was rushed in its development and has not been fully stress tested. Vile Bitcoin maximalists got it through over ruling developers and making changes for pure hyper rather than focusing on the quality of the network. Rushed products always go wrong. November 20th+ is a date to watch.
12. 100k+ Bitcoin is being screamed all over the internet, while a lot of OG bears have gone into hiding, due to general disgust of how much greed there is the market. The last time this happened was in April before the big dip.
13. hashtags such as #1BTC #2BTC, #HODL #DiamondHands have all started popping up again as well as #IslandBoy and all the insanity you see at Bitcoin tops.
Having spending everyday on Twitter since March 2020 and monitoring sentiment I think the BTC price is 1 push away from a sharp nasty drop. It could either be a drop similar to March or a full on Bear Market. I dont think this time is different. I think the Bulls are going to get absolutely rekt for being to greedy.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.