Updated

Bitcoin’s Repeating Broadening Wedge

On July I published in the updates of my prior published idea a reinterpretation of my longstanding broadening wedge thesis (c.f. also) to factor in OPTICALARTdotCOM’s points:

I’m herein (c.f. below) refining more meticulously the timing based on measurements which sync with Socrates’ Forecast Arrays for the markets (DJIA) published in Martin Armstrong’s latest, PRIVATE BLOG – The Dow Into September and his priors PRIVATE BLOG – Bitcoin the Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History? and PRIVATE BLOG – Cryptocurrency Day of Reckoning?:

Note that legacy Bitcoin should not decline below the brownish-orange support line ~$7k in Q2 2024. But the impostor Bitcoin which most people are hodling (and fooled into thinking it is the actual, official Bitcoin) I had written extensively about (archived) in my prior published ideas, will plummet to near $0. Thus the Elliot Wave structure for major-most wave #3 will remain intact (not retracing more than 100% of its wave #2) but the Elliot Wave structure for the impostor Bitcoin will be terminal (kaput).

Very interestingly the timing for this ANYONECANSPEND restoration of the Nash equilibrium which was destroyed by the 2017 New York agreement that launched the softfork which has accumulated the ~13 million BTC booty for the taking — to be undoubtedly, erroneously referred to as an “attack” by the miners, as misunderstood by the majority that will be fleeced because of their inability to read and comprehend my detailed explanations. Because the projected timing in this idea aligns with (c.f. also) one of the stipulated requirements that Craig “Faketoshi” Wright, “The sale will allign to a reward having”.

C.f. the latest updates published on my prior published idea, , for more in depth discussion on what is actually going on in the world and the future that awaits us over this decade and beyond.

Note

C.f. the latest updates published on my prior published idea, "Official" (impostor) Bitcoin Core to Drop to $0 in 2023?, for more in depth discussion on what is actually going on in the world and the future that awaits us over this decade and beyond.

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Just because I mentioned “Faketoshi” Wright, doesn’t mean the posited “attack” has anything to do with BSV or BCH. Legacy Bitcoin is the immutable protocol that Satoshi Nakamoto (i.e. “I am Nash”) left us with, not the various scammers convincing too many of us to adopt doomed mutated protocols — and that includes BTC (i.e. Bitcoin Core), BCH and BSV.

Note

Or more optimistically for the rallies to the top of the posited broadening wedge aka megaphone pattern:

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This confirms BTC will not be rallying to new ATHs until after the bottom of the 2024 recession and market crash.

twitter.com/venturefounder/status/1549577722300715010
(click for the chart)

Twitter: venturefounder
#Bitcoin rally looking good? Yes. But #BTC shall take no pride in this rally.

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Wondering what could bring the markets back down in terms of news, given consumers are still spending and earnings have been less worse than expected with some surprises to the upside. Perhaps more hawkish talk from the Fed meeting July 27, GDP confirming a recession on July 28, worse than expected PCE inflation July 29, and Mich consumer sentiment (which is mostly driven by inflation, c.f. that GoT video I linked today) worse than expected. The market rallied on the worse than expected CPI report, yet PCE is more forward looking. What if the Fed shocks with a 100 basis points hike? There were signs in the CPI report that inflation was broadening and the Fed may fear a wage-price spiral and can’t allowing inflation expectations to become anchored, given that the consumer is still spending. Since there is no Fed meeting in August, Fed may need to be more proactive on July 27!

marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Goldman Sachs might be wrong, and Fed may have its focus on the consumer and the wealth effect instead of on oil:

finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-interest-rates-july-goldman-sachs-105949509.html

Note

twitter.com/venturefounder/status/1549576714623279104
(click for chart)

“If the Fed pushes for more favorable policies or guidance, recession fear eased, and equities bottom from here, then we may very likely have already seen the #Bitcoin cycle bottom as well.

Next downside target remains at $15-16k #BTC provided recession & QT fear continues.”

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VIX could come all the way down to 21.5 over next 2 days before heading back up. Seems too soon in percentage towards apex of symmetric triangle so annotated, for VIX to break down to lower than 21.5.

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Refining my interpretation, I am expecting S&P to top on this bounce ~4060–4080, Nasdaq 12900 and BTC ~$26.6k. If the Nasdaq continues up to ~13500, then S&P to 4140–4200 and BTC to $28.8–30.3k.

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My current thesis is rally up to the reddish line, then drop back down to the bottom of the bluish channel. If the bluish channel is valid, then need more than one touch on the bottom.

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> > “Stock markets and crypto are about to roll over and crash.”
>
> “shelby3, respectfully disagree”

@otwa2113, I have been agreeing that the markets were overdue for a rally and for example when we first started discussing this some weeks ago, I mentioned that that $28k could upside for Bitcoin. Yet all signs continue to point to this being a bull trap. One of the important factors is that during rallies off a bottom typically everyone remains bearish. We have many people turning bullish now. Also we have bearish divergences forming on the daily and we have significant levels of overhead resistance. Earnings (e.g. banks and Netflix) have been less worse than some feared sustaining this rally. Crude oil and VIX are exhibiting bullish RSI divergences. The dollar might first pullback to trend line support 104 if 106 was not the pullback bottom.

@otwa2113, to clarify it’s your original thesis for a massive blast through all overhead resistance to egregious levels in such a short time frame that I am disagreeing with and which thus far has failed. I never disagreed that a bull trap rally could occur. I was unclear whether the rally would come before or after a test of lows and obviously it is the former by now:

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Unlike in the 1970s, spikes in price inflation aren’t leading to massive unemployment. Instead more like before the Dotcom and 2008 crash. Duh! Because Westerners can pay the higher prices as they’re heavily invested in assets that have gone up more than inflation, e.g. stocks and housing. The massive unemployment won’t happen until the massive implosion of investment assets. Also the Western governments are subsidizing those who are not invested. IT WILL END BADLY.

Click for the following linked juncture in the video for the chart I am referring to:

youtu.be/j5H9kU5R3go?t=475
(Why Stocks are Completely Disconnected From Reality.)

Note

Interesting insight, listen for a couple of minutes. The insiders might be preparing for another leg down…

youtu.be/AlKIKsXqOq0?t=750
(Last Chance To Buy The Crypto Dip? Exact Bitcoin Price Levels To Watch!)

Note

Bitcoin dominance likely to surge again:

youtu.be/Zf-hGToO6Xs?t=446
(click for the chart)

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Lest anyone forget I predicted all of this in Oct 2021:

Note

IMPORTANT:

youtu.be/R1pueM9ujr4
(It’s About to be A Wild Ride for the SP500 | Why Volatility is About to CRUSH Investors)

Note

Armstrong confirms August will be a Panic Cycle in some markets:

armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/energy/russia-to-cut-off-germany-from-gas-thanks-to-zelensky/

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Another reason the risk-on markets will be spooked again is inflation is becoming sticky and there are factors which can continue to drive CPI higher even if oil and commodities decline (not to mention we appear to be seeing the start of a bounce in those). Also the implications of this are depressing. We have an inflation spiral ahead. Additionally California will send out the stimulus checks in October and that’s also when Biden will stop draining the U.S. petroleum reserve.

youtu.be/uliw6ZedASM
(3 Reasons why the Fed will "Paul Volcker" CRASH Markets.)

youtube.com/watch?v=uliw6ZedASM&lc=UgxhYvqSL4UR3ZsV2AB4AaABAg

An economic collapse is needed to thwart spiraling, sticky inflation. The supply chains have been wrecked (intentionally by leftists). Only the demand side can be modulated now. I just returned from Mexico. Beef is 3 times more expensive in the U.S. (even compared to the UK) because during the pLandemic many meat processors went bankrupt. The consolidation has created a monopolistic processing industry which is squeezing the cattle producers who are decreasing their herds because they have no pricing power. Yet the processing industry sets the prices as high as the market will bear, raking in insane profits.

Note

youtu.be/24dyS6DEZD0
(Crypto Regulations INCOMING! Here's What They Could Look Like)

youtu.be/CIRsEOBYxbA
(Have You READ THIS!? The DeFi Crypto Regulation THEY Want!!)

Note

twitter.com/venturefounder/status/1549581172077912064
(click for chart)

“After bouncing off the golden trendline support, $ETH/#BTC also at monthly high here:

In the best case, if #ETH2 serves as an event meaningful enough to trump US risk-asset macro, ETH could resume in a new bulltrend like 2017. Otherwise it may sell off to golden trendline again.”

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ADA/BTC has more upside leverage than ETH/BTC:

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Indeed, others are pointing out clues to support speculation that it was planned. You detected it early apparently. Below is my published idea that agrees with your published idea herein:

Yet respectfully I didn’t agree with the acceleration posited in the following linked idea that you had published earlier in July, although I do think that short squeeze acceleration could come later perhaps after a long squeeze down to lower lows. And readers should note that you have already reacted to this and I agreed with your reply.

@otwa2113, to clarify it’s your original thesis for a massive blast through all overhead resistance to egregious levels in such a short time frame that I am disagreeing with and which thus far has failed. I never disagreed that a bull trap rally could occur. I was unclear whether the rally would come before or after a test of lows and obviously it is the former by now:

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Posited VIX roadmap:

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In addition to the end of the release from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve in October, the U.S. supply chain could take a massive hit in Q4 as well. Note I only have a spike bull trap rally into September on my published trading idea, and then back down to egregious lows until the Fed pivots Q2 2023:

TPTB running the freak show in WA D.C. want to impoverish the Americans before the end of Brandon’s term, so as to create dependency on pushing out UBI directly with a new enslaving 666-like central bank digital currency (CBDC) which will probably be launched in earnest during the projected 2024 market abyss. We will make more money shorting than long positions over the next over the next 1.5 years.

cnn.com/2022/07/15/business/railroad-strike-threat/index.html
(Biden averts freight railroad strike - for now)

“But the action by Biden could be only a short-term solution, setting the clock is ticking towards a possible work stoppage in 60 days.

The Presidential Emergency Board that Biden named Friday has 30 days to try to find a solution satisfactory to both sides. If either rejects it, a second 30-day "cooling off" period would begin in which the two sides try to reach a deal.

Only at the end of that second cooling-off period, which would be in mid-September, could the 12 unions that represent the railroad workers go on strike, or the nation's major railroads could lock out the workers and try to convince Congress to intervene and impose a labor deal more to their liking.”

youtu.be/Sz8AavXcKXk
(Leaked insider info from a very reliable source.. THEY ARE PREPARING FOR SOMETHING BAD PREP NOW)

Note

youtube.com/watch?v=Sz8AavXcKXk&lc=UgzgkmbZJMbqbDTM_b54AaABAg.9ds9iYor4sQ9dujpaCJOq8

> “I have been storing canned goods and everyone thinks I’m being paranoid I’m trying to get my house in order and they don’t realize that this is going to happen! Thank you for your information and giving us a warning. At least I feel I’m not alone and I’m even going through a deep depression and trying to fight through it.”

Jacquelyn all of us are suffering emotionally and mentally from this concerted attack by the powers that be on Western civilization. That the majority is still in denial doesn’t bode well for the future, because it means Brandon et al can continue to destroy the nation without the people fighting back en masse. They are attempting to manage the collapse of our $trillions debt bubble. They see this as an opportunity to turn us into digital panopticon slaves. For example, COVID was a pLandemic of billions of new tests for the flu. My plan is to get the f*ck off-grid so as to remove the stress and return to enjoying my life. In order to accomplish this financially we need to have funds to invest wisely, including shorting and longing the markets at the correct juncture. For this I can suggest to all of you Ron Walker’s channel. Good luck to all of you!

> “Yep...I'm an ASM at a local retail chain similar to ts/rural king/harbor freight. We have been warned from corporate that here soon we won't be able to recieve anything. Had a corporate visit this past week & we were told to let go of all the part time employees. It's gonna be hard bc a couple have been begging for more hrs since their rent just jumped from 1400 to 1900 this month. So now instead of telling them there's no extra hrs avail we have to say sorry, we gotta let u go. Hope people r prepared for a great depression or worse. Get your house in order NOW!!”

> “yeah sadly everything we've been prepping for is coming to fruition. I started stocking up last yr but still don't feel secure enough w my 3 littles. Guess we'll be hunting & fishing as much as we can....growing potatoes! Potatoes kept many alive during hard times & they're so easy to grow!”

Note

youtube.com/watch?v=Sz8AavXcKXk&lc=Ugxg6n9N7o8nnbeZXwV4AaABAg.9dZsXf-T7MY9dv8IW9c8BK

You may not be allowed to grow potatoes nor keep any livestock. The Agenda 2030 plan includes banning any form of agriculture that is not controlled by Bill Gates and our enslavers at the Klaus Schwab’s World Economic Forum. You can see this has been put into motion already by lowering the level of fertilizers that we be allowed in Canada and the Netherlands, to bankrupt the farmers. Green house gas limits will be one of the means that they enslave us destroying all independent businesses, so only their cronies can produce anything which they will then ration to us via the incoming, 666-like digital panopticon central bank digital currencies which will be adopted when UBI is doled out directly (digital stimulus checks) to unemployed and homeless people so they can afford to eat. This is why they are collapsing the economy into the abyss by 2024. Then WW3 by 2025 which they have been pushing. The Western mass media is lying about everything, including Putin, Ukraine and Russia. The major social networks are censoring most truthful comments. Western civilization is committing suicide (aka societalcide) against itself.

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This video makes strong points that crypto is not going much lower. The next wick down perhaps to a marginally lower low, should be bought with confidence. I don’t know how reconcile this video with my expectation for a low lower than $13.9k by Q1 2023. Perhaps his purple Fib channel will have rolled over to a lower level by then.

youtu.be/ggyXXBF8oSA
(Warning: #Bitcoin Pi Cycle Bottom JUST FLASHED – You Should Do This Now)

Note

Armstrong on Worldwide Inflation

Shelby Moore, {7/25/22 8:24 PM}
{In reply to __________}
The dollar will be the last to experience any form of hyperinflation. I doubt very much hyperinflation in the West, because that would relieve the masses of their debt burden. The hyperinflations will only be in failed developing countries.

The way this ends we will wish for hyperinflation as a better alternative. Instead they leverage the CBDCs to enslave the Westerners on a rationing pogrom.

I don’t believe there will be a monetary crisis until after WW3 when the dollar loses its hegemony. And it will be hyperinflation only relative to Bitcoin, not relative to goods and services.

The point is that inflation is not hyperinflation. Hyperinflation only happens when the government collapses.

The Western governments are not going to collapse. They will enslave the population instead and force rationing as the solution.

The inflation will go very high, but that is not hyperinflation which is always instead a monetary phenomena when the population abandons the national currency. We are no where near hyperinflation. Not going to happen in any Western nation.

The model for our enslavement is not monetary collapse. It is instead a pogrom. The problem is our governments are not weak. Because our populations are very, very, very weak and dependent on the government.

You have an incorrect model of the collapse. Governments are strong. People are weak. In the past, people were strong and fought back. There will not be another WW2 trench warfare killing millions in Europe. You could not find a million men in all of W. Europe willing to die for their nation in a trench.

There is a hyperinflation. It has been going on since 2009. It is every currency as priced in Bitcoin. But the masses will not ever make it to Bitcoin. So there will be no mass hyperinflation. What is happening is the world is being returned to the ancient times where 99% were slaves. Only 1% will have Bitcoin after the ANYONECANSPEND attack.

The last thing our overlords want is hyperinflation in the West. That would evidence that the people are strong and capable of resisting enslavement.

Note

Prepare for a winter in W.Europe without heat and electricity.

EU Energy Panic Cycle to Begin

Note the timing of this is when I am expecting maybe a spike rally on Bitcoin before crashing back down again. This is peculiar but could explain along with other reasons I have mentioned recently as to why any significant rally is going to a bull trap.

Note

youtube.com/channel/UCRvqjQPSeaWn-uEx-w0XOIg/community?lc=UgyJ9OeAA37fyfjedjh4AaABAg&lb=Ugkxb9aA8qMZq58jtzwpB3N1oByiKFDAQDye

All PoW other than Bitcoin will fail due to difficulty non-readjustment attacks coming. And no this has not been fixed and can not be fixed. This is an invariant that can not be changed. This is why ONLY Bitcoin will be the world’s reserve currency. I do not like Bitcoin, but this is the fact. As for PoS(h8t) well it is really sh8t oligarchy control, as you all will soon find out.

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Spot Bitcoin never formed any bullish RSI divergences above a 4 hourly on the June bottom. CME formed a daily RSI divergence, but looks like it needs come back down and form another daily RSI divergence while also registering on the spot chart.

Upside to $38 – 45k for a precipitous rally to mirror Q4 2019, but perhaps after retesting the lows if the stock markets decline to form a right shoulder on their posited inverted H&S patterns.

That wick low $25.6k in May is probably overhead resistance, as were the lows before the drop in Q4 2019.

Alternative hypothesis is going to rally to ~$38k in August without any significant decline interim.

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But remember I had measured the posited repeating broadening wedge as not making that significant bull trap rally into late September but not until after after a decline in late August.

Also recall that I wrote on July 20, “My current thesis is rally up to the reddish line, then drop back down to the bottom of the bluish channel. If the bluish channel is valid, then need more than one touch on the bottom.”

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BTC, ETH and ADA prices respectively. My current outlook is for a potential continued relief rally tomorrow to ~21.9–22.8k, 1720–1820 and 0.48–0.50. with a decline into the end of the week to ~19.3–20.4k, 1475 and 0.40–0.43. A bull trap rally next week to ~25.7k, 2500 and 0.59–0.69. A decline into third week of September ~18.1–19.3k, 1300 and 0.40–0.45 (SPX to ~3980). A rally into Nov/Dec 42k, 3400 and 1.45 as ETH and ADA slam into their overhead resistance trend lines on my recent chart updates. Pullback and two more surges into January and March with final tops 60–65k, 4100–4200 and 1.55.

What’s not clear is whether ETH and ADA will under perform from that juncture as they did in 2019. Will they stay trapped under their said overhead trend lines or will the bullish EW count (c.f. my published updates) hold and they proceed up to new ATHs to complete their posited, major wave 5?

BTC will decline until May perhaps to ~36k. Then it will rally to ~75k (70–80k, i.e. a “triple, quadruple or double-double” top) into Q4 2023 (perhaps a Sept/Oct peak), presumably due to the Fed forced to become more dovish but not yet rockets-to-da-moon QE (as was the case in 2019 as noted in my recent updates). A FLASH CRASH (Russia invades Lithuania and takes the Sulwaki Corridor?) will seek egregious lows ~5–7k, 120–300 and 0.03–0.10 by end of 2024. Readers repeat after me, ‘ANYONECANSPEND restoration, donations-to-the-miners “attack”.‘ Note timing could be extended by a couple of months or so. I’m expecting the SPX to crash -62.5% from ~5900 to ~2180. Note every percentage decline on the SPX has been increasing by 1.75 so the -35.5% corona flash crash will be amplified. Many exchanges and stable coins may fail so keep that in mind if attempting to short the cryptocurrencies.

The Fed will be forced to QE-to-da-moon again but with inflation already hot a.f. due to accelerating international war and sanctions thereof. The Fed will discover they are pushing on a string (marginal-utility-of-debt gone egregiously negative) so they are likely to be unable to control interest rates and non-speculative, non-FOMO legacy (i.e. Satoshi’s immutable protocol, not BTC, BCH nor BSV!) Bitcoin should finally start mooning on fear (as gold does) as the monetary reset looms.

The altcoins (all that FOMO, speculative dogesh8t, including the altcoin Bitcoin Core which was created by the corruption on the 2017 N.Y. Agreement soft fork…soft forks are deceptions and must eventually hard fork/f-ck) will have declined for the first time to well below their prior cycle ATHs indicating the end of their half-decade bull market (all except LTC launched ~2017). The proof-of-work altcoins will be destroyed by repeated, difficulty-bomb non-readjustment attacks. The proof-of-stake sh8tcoins will be attacked by government regulation as they are folded into the orbit of the central bank digital currencies’ (CBDCs’) dominion — as TPTB try to enslave us in totalitarian, negative interest rates aka capital controls by trying to end the free market with their futile, diabolical “Great Reset” collateral damage wrecking ball.

ETH may form a bearish double-top and/or decade long, bearish, H&S pattern projecting to $0. All cryptocurrencies other than legacy Bitcoin to $0 whilst Satoshi’s Phoenix rises to $1 million.

ETH:BTC appears to be dying. It peaked in 2017 and now is dead cat rallying in a bearish rising channel or wedge.

Ditto ADA:BTC:

shelby3

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