BTC Log Growth Curves: Expanding Cycles & Diminishing Returns
Updated
Chart showing Logrithmic Growth Curves with Fibonacci regions on the BTC price since it's inception. What it's showing is that from the beginning, the price of BTC exponentially rises up to a peak of the bull run cycle then crashes down to the bear market cycle. This cycle is then repeated again as the Bitcoin halving event cuts the new supply of BTC mined in each block in half while demand slowly increases or remains the same driving up the price of BTC and starting the bull run. The green yellow red exponential curve zones represent Fibonacci levels, we can see that the bottom of the bear markets start in the green and the price peaks out at the top of the bull run in the red zone. Each cycle length so far has been increasing in duration and the gains from beginning to end of bull run are diminishing. One thesis out there is that of "Increasing Cycles and Diminishing Returns", which suggests that each cycle's bull run duration gets longer and the percentage gain in price is getting lower, which makes sense since each Bitcoin halving event is having a lower impact on the incoming supply of Bitcoin mined per block. Eventually the price of Bitcoin would stabilize and we may not see such large cyclic bull/bear run cycles which can easily be predicted based on calendar dates relative to the having event. Stability in price would be good for the Bitcoin use case of "Store of Value", but bad for predictability of Bull/Bear market cycles and would require a lot more research into individual alt coin project fundamentals to see the kind of seasonal gains we accustomed to seeing. For this logarithmic growth curve model we can estimate that the length of the bull run may be dragged out to Q1/Q2 2021 and the peak Bitcoin price could be in the range of $125,000-150,000 by then with a sharp crash in price into the bear market of around $50,000.
Note
Correction: that should read 'Q1/Q2 2022" for the bull run extension
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