BTC.D - BITCOIN DOMINANCE TURNS BULLISH THS FIRST TIME
BTC.D turns bullish the first time. Why does it matter?One thing everyone should be aware of is the fact, that during the last bull market, the Bitcoin market share dropped from 95% to 30% and now for the first time the time series analysis shows bullish signals in the long term trend. Does this go against the masses? I bet it does.
Opinions might differ among people in the crypto space, but most of them would agree on one point. This point is the believe that there are too many bad projects and useless coins. In 2017 we got that Dot-com bubble vibe. Thousands of completely useless white papers and projects getting millions in investment without even producing anything. It was a big show, and whoever won the advertising won the funding. In 2017 it worked very well, but it is extremely unlikely that this will last during the next market cycle for the following reasons:
1. The majority learned from their losses and won't 'hodl' that much anymore or invest in a bunch of highly correlated garbage assets.
2. The supply of exotic projects is just overwhelming. In 2013/2014 I was trading Bitcoin and Litecoin. In 2016 I basically had 90% of all the important Altcoins covered by trading on Poloniex. Afterwards, there was the Altcoin explosion which boosted the availability of different coins into the thousands. New investors (retail and institutional) will stick to the major assets (BTC, XRP, ETH, LTC etc.)and the jungle of altcoins will have a similar status as penny stocks or otc low floats in the stock market.
I strongly believe that profits, as we saw in different assets, will still be possible in the future. The difference will be that crypto will establish their own 'blue chip'-assets and only a hand full of promising projects will get the trust and the exposure to perform like most Altcoins in the recent run. I strongly believe that the strategy of basically buying 'everything' won't work anymore. It will take much more effort to fundamentally research and find a good asset.
If you are a new investor or still flashed by the altcoin run of 2017, do not expect the next market cycle to be the same. The market will mature and a place where money is flowing into all sorts of unreliable projects is not sustainable. If you want to be safe, then stick to the major coins and only have a small exposure on small projects.
I hope this was helpful.
Best,
Felix Kewa
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