Large Speculators Bet on Bitcoin Rally

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We published this chart a few months back noting that Bitcoin has never rallied while Large Speculators were net-long in Bitcoin futures and that streak continues this month as they remain net-long. This past week, Large Speculators actually increased their net-long positions by a lot as Bitcoin continues to struggle and near 2025 lows. This will be a good experiment to watch and see where Bitcoin goes from here and how it impacts positioning.

Some may say that Bitcoin futures is a small part of the BTC world and does not represent the entire trader population. Which may be true, but so far the COT data has done well identifying the reward/risk potential in Bitcoin. I have always said that COT data is not a great predictor of direction, but it sure does help you manage risk by knowing which side is crowded.

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