Long
BTC/BRL (Foxbit) – 4hr
Fibonacci Extension from previous 2 lows to previous ATH confirms consolidated support at ~14.100 with next support/resistance at ~14.500. Next leg up takes us to ~15.000 psychological resistance and fib extension with final bull-run resistance at ~15.700. The Brazilian markets have a tendency to play catch up, and when they do, they usually overshoot targets in both directions, but particularly on the downside.
We see less volume to support this bull run than previous runs, however there's still enough to push us to ~15.000 in my opinion, or at least close to it over the coming days. If you're not already in, we may head sideways for a day around the 14.500 support line. On the hourly chart entries in the cloud 14.270–14.380.
Should this trend line hold, we'll arrive at the 15.000 mark by 6am tomorrow morning (Brasilia Time). The only way I can see this happening is when Asian markets come online and push this bull further throughout the night. If we make 15.000 by tomorrow morning, expect a pull back to to 14.500 before continuation of trend.
We see less volume to support this bull run than previous runs, however there's still enough to push us to ~15.000 in my opinion, or at least close to it over the coming days. If you're not already in, we may head sideways for a day around the 14.500 support line. On the hourly chart entries in the cloud 14.270–14.380.
Should this trend line hold, we'll arrive at the 15.000 mark by 6am tomorrow morning (Brasilia Time). The only way I can see this happening is when Asian markets come online and push this bull further throughout the night. If we make 15.000 by tomorrow morning, expect a pull back to to 14.500 before continuation of trend.
Trade active
Well we pounded through the ATH, and as usual the Brazilian market has overshot itself again, currently trading at ~15% above USD exchanges... and we're still LONG. Fib extension drawn from last breakout to ATH to retracement bottom. Shows resistance at the following points:
1. 16.744 / 50%
2. 16.964 / 78.6%
3. 17.278 / 100%
3. ~18.800 / 161.8% (!!! Don't hodl your breath for this though)
We formed a pennant over the last 24 hours with a break to the upside confirming with a break through the 38.2% fib resistance line (confirmed by consolidation of previous candles). Our target for the pennant breakout is between 100% fib extension (17.676) and ~18.000 (coincides with psychological resistance, round number). This is the target range.
Volume still supports a bull run to the upside and RSI is making a move up also.
Recommended stop-loss at 16.252 (23.6% fib)
Trade closed: target reached
Target reached perfectly. And we're out for now. How in the hell did the Brazilian market get almost 20% ahead of USD? As always, count on the Brazilian hype train!
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