Bitcoin breakout...REALLY?
Ok the headline was just to get some attention...but seriously...when was the last time you saw an idea published on Bitcoin that wasn't simply regurgitating the same old permabull war cry over a 'bullish breakout'? And...from an isolated 2nd wave triangle no less (which are about as rare as dinosaur feathers by the way).
Anyway, while I'm not necessarily bearish about bitcoin (note that my status says 'neutral'), I'm here to caution against joining the bull wagon too early - and without sufficient evidence.
Consider the following:
1. The overwhelming majority of ideas published here are referring to BTCUSD (bitstamp), which by ANY normal metric is thinly traded.
2. BTCEUR certainly has more volume, but could hardly be called 'liquid' by the standards of normal trading.
3. Both of the above have shown a 'breakout' of sorts....but on less than convincing volume.
4. Both above 'breakouts' lack the motive force to be classed as impulsive...they are still full of overlaps - more akin to corrective price action. (ie. wave E with its signature throw-over pattern?)
5. The chart above shows BTC/Yuan, which has far greater volume, and shows no sign whatsoever of the 'breakout' that those focused on the thinly traded markets are getting all excited about.
6. Finally, if the triangle cannot be an isolated pattern in a 2nd wave, then what is it? Very simply, it's most probably the end of wave B of an ABC correction in the larger degree of trend. This view calls for a fall to a wave C extreme beyond the low of wave A (see chart).
With all that in mind, wouldn't it be best to at least wait for the market to commit before committing to the market?
Of course I could be wrong...but someone has to play devil's advocate...lol
Anyway, while I'm not necessarily bearish about bitcoin (note that my status says 'neutral'), I'm here to caution against joining the bull wagon too early - and without sufficient evidence.
Consider the following:
1. The overwhelming majority of ideas published here are referring to BTCUSD (bitstamp), which by ANY normal metric is thinly traded.
2. BTCEUR certainly has more volume, but could hardly be called 'liquid' by the standards of normal trading.
3. Both of the above have shown a 'breakout' of sorts....but on less than convincing volume.
4. Both above 'breakouts' lack the motive force to be classed as impulsive...they are still full of overlaps - more akin to corrective price action. (ie. wave E with its signature throw-over pattern?)
5. The chart above shows BTC/Yuan, which has far greater volume, and shows no sign whatsoever of the 'breakout' that those focused on the thinly traded markets are getting all excited about.
6. Finally, if the triangle cannot be an isolated pattern in a 2nd wave, then what is it? Very simply, it's most probably the end of wave B of an ABC correction in the larger degree of trend. This view calls for a fall to a wave C extreme beyond the low of wave A (see chart).
With all that in mind, wouldn't it be best to at least wait for the market to commit before committing to the market?
Of course I could be wrong...but someone has to play devil's advocate...lol
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