📊 BTC Daily Chart – In-Depth Analysis (as of Apr 15, 2025)
🔍 Overview
You're holding a long position from below $80K, still active but now at a +5-6% gain, while TP is placed around 88.3K, close to a key resistance and trendline confluence. Let's break this all down and answer your core question: Is it wise to secure profits now even if TP hasn't been reached?
⚒️ BitcoinMF PRO & Fisher Confirmation
The BitcoinMF PRO indicator has been delivering precise entries/exits—highlighted with green "Long" and red "Short" tags.
Your current active long was marked by BitcoinMF PRO near the lower end of the descending channel with Fisher Transform at a local bottom, signaling an extremely oversold bounce zone.
The Fisher is curling up from a "super low" region, meaning it is entering mid-zone. This reduces risk-reward from here for new longs—good reason to lock partial profits.
📉 Technical Chart Structure Breakdown
🔺 Linear Regression Channels:
BTC is now trading near the top of the smaller descending red channel, nearing rejection territory.
Also, it’s approaching the bottom half of the broader dark blue ascending channel = resistance cluster zone.
🔁 Elliott Wave Structure (Possibly Ending Wave 4)
This looks like a potential 3 → 4 → 5 wave structure unfolding.
Wave 3 likely bottomed near $71K-
73K, and this long is likely part of Wave 4 retracement. If correct, Wave 5 may resume down again unless invalidated above $88.3K.
🔸 Fibonacci Watch:
0.5 Fib retracement from recent swing high to low is around $84.2K-$85.5K—you’re sitting on it right now.
0.618 Fib confluence is ~$88.5K, right where TP is set. That zone is statistically known for rejections. This is another reason to secure a chunk of profit now.
📉 Volume & Sentiment
Volume is weak on this rally, indicating a lack of conviction.
Fear & Greed Index (live: ⚠️ around 72 – greed zone) is starting to lean hot.
Market sentiment is optimistic, and price is hovering just below known short zones.
🏦 Whale Activity, Exchange Inflows & CME Gap
Whale wallets have shown mild accumulation at lower levels (~73K-$75K), but no aggressive buying up here.
Exchange inflows are increasing slightly – suggesting some may be getting ready to sell into this strength.
✅ CME Gap around $66K is still unfilled. Historically 90% of gaps fill. Keep that in your long-term radar.
🔄 Long vs Shorts Ratio (Bybit + Binance)
On both Bybit and Binance, Longs > Shorts by ~58/42 – minor imbalance. Suggests majority is positioned long, slightly raising correction risk.
✅ Final Strategic Take
❗ Why You Should Secure Profits Now:
Price is at a resistance confluence zone (Fib + LR + sentiment).
The move has already run +5-6%, and even if price doesn’t touch TP at 88.3K, greed could erase that unrealized profit quickly.
If this is just Wave 4, the next move could be a final push down to $70K or lower (Wave 5).
Volume divergence + rising inflows = risk is increasing.
Locking at least 50-70% now is smart trader psychology. You can always re-enter.
🔮 Most Probable Next Move: 6.8 / 10 – Mild Up, Then Pullback
BTC has 69% probability of testing $86.5K–$88.5K, but rejection is very likely there.
After that, we could see a pullback to $80K–$82K.
Extreme bullish continuation (above $90K) currently has <20% probability unless macro/Fed/etc. change.
📌 Action Recommendation:
📈 Secure partial profits immediately.
🧠 Move stop-loss to breakeven or slightly in profit to protect the rest.
🛑 Avoid FOMO-ing into new longs now – let the chart confirm breakout first.
🧠 Ancient Wisdom:
In Pirkei Avot (Ethics of the Fathers), Rabbi Tarfon said:
“The day is short, the work is great… and the reward is much, but the Master is insistent.”
In trading terms: The market doesn’t owe you your TP. Secure reward when the work is done. Don’t overstay your welcome.
for more follow links in profile
🔍 Overview
You're holding a long position from below $80K, still active but now at a +5-6% gain, while TP is placed around 88.3K, close to a key resistance and trendline confluence. Let's break this all down and answer your core question: Is it wise to secure profits now even if TP hasn't been reached?
⚒️ BitcoinMF PRO & Fisher Confirmation
The BitcoinMF PRO indicator has been delivering precise entries/exits—highlighted with green "Long" and red "Short" tags.
Your current active long was marked by BitcoinMF PRO near the lower end of the descending channel with Fisher Transform at a local bottom, signaling an extremely oversold bounce zone.
The Fisher is curling up from a "super low" region, meaning it is entering mid-zone. This reduces risk-reward from here for new longs—good reason to lock partial profits.
📉 Technical Chart Structure Breakdown
🔺 Linear Regression Channels:
BTC is now trading near the top of the smaller descending red channel, nearing rejection territory.
Also, it’s approaching the bottom half of the broader dark blue ascending channel = resistance cluster zone.
🔁 Elliott Wave Structure (Possibly Ending Wave 4)
This looks like a potential 3 → 4 → 5 wave structure unfolding.
Wave 3 likely bottomed near $71K-
73K, and this long is likely part of Wave 4 retracement. If correct, Wave 5 may resume down again unless invalidated above $88.3K.🔸 Fibonacci Watch:
0.5 Fib retracement from recent swing high to low is around $84.2K-$85.5K—you’re sitting on it right now.
0.618 Fib confluence is ~$88.5K, right where TP is set. That zone is statistically known for rejections. This is another reason to secure a chunk of profit now.
📉 Volume & Sentiment
Volume is weak on this rally, indicating a lack of conviction.
Fear & Greed Index (live: ⚠️ around 72 – greed zone) is starting to lean hot.
Market sentiment is optimistic, and price is hovering just below known short zones.
🏦 Whale Activity, Exchange Inflows & CME Gap
Whale wallets have shown mild accumulation at lower levels (~
73K-$75K), but no aggressive buying up here.Exchange inflows are increasing slightly – suggesting some may be getting ready to sell into this strength.
✅ CME Gap around $66K is still unfilled. Historically 90% of gaps fill. Keep that in your long-term radar.
🔄 Long vs Shorts Ratio (Bybit + Binance)
On both Bybit and Binance, Longs > Shorts by ~58/42 – minor imbalance. Suggests majority is positioned long, slightly raising correction risk.
✅ Final Strategic Take
❗ Why You Should Secure Profits Now:
Price is at a resistance confluence zone (Fib + LR + sentiment).
The move has already run +5-6%, and even if price doesn’t touch TP at 88.3K, greed could erase that unrealized profit quickly.
If this is just Wave 4, the next move could be a final push down to $70K or lower (Wave 5).
Volume divergence + rising inflows = risk is increasing.
Locking at least 50-70% now is smart trader psychology. You can always re-enter.
🔮 Most Probable Next Move: 6.8 / 10 – Mild Up, Then Pullback
BTC has 69% probability of testing $86.5K–$88.5K, but rejection is very likely there.
After that, we could see a pullback to $80K–$82K.
Extreme bullish continuation (above $90K) currently has <20% probability unless macro/Fed/etc. change.
📌 Action Recommendation:
📈 Secure partial profits immediately.
🧠 Move stop-loss to breakeven or slightly in profit to protect the rest.
🛑 Avoid FOMO-ing into new longs now – let the chart confirm breakout first.
🧠 Ancient Wisdom:
In Pirkei Avot (Ethics of the Fathers), Rabbi Tarfon said:
“The day is short, the work is great… and the reward is much, but the Master is insistent.”
In trading terms: The market doesn’t owe you your TP. Secure reward when the work is done. Don’t overstay your welcome.
for more follow links in profile
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.