BTC has formed a textbook Wyckoff structure on the weekly chart — but are we entering Phase D markdown, or is this just a trap before continuation?
📉 Distribution Case (Primary Bias):
BC → UT → UTAD clearly defined
Bearish RSI divergence at UTAD confirms momentum exhaustion
Volume drying up = weakening demand
🎯 Targeting the 0.618–0.66 fib zone near 87k–89k, confluence with previous structure
🧠 Reaccumulation Possibility (Alternative Scenario):
Structure also mimics Reaccumulation Schematic #2
If support at 101k–104k holds and price reclaims 112k with strong volume → UTAD may prove to be a SOS, not a trap
⚠️ Levels to Watch:
🔺 UTAD: 112,087
🔸 BCLX: 108,496 → structural pivot
🔻 AR: 92,160 → distribution confirmation if lost
🎯 Target: 89,050 – 87,206 (fib + horizontal confluence)
🟠 Final invalidation for reaccumulation: weekly close below 87k
Whether we’re heading for Phase D markdown or one final shakeout before markup, this structure will define BTC’s path for the coming months.
Bias: Bearish unless price reclaims UTAD with strength.
Conviction: Grows with breakdown + volume spike under 101k.
📉 Distribution Case (Primary Bias):
BC → UT → UTAD clearly defined
Bearish RSI divergence at UTAD confirms momentum exhaustion
Volume drying up = weakening demand
🎯 Targeting the 0.618–0.66 fib zone near 87k–89k, confluence with previous structure
🧠 Reaccumulation Possibility (Alternative Scenario):
Structure also mimics Reaccumulation Schematic #2
If support at 101k–104k holds and price reclaims 112k with strong volume → UTAD may prove to be a SOS, not a trap
⚠️ Levels to Watch:
🔺 UTAD: 112,087
🔸 BCLX: 108,496 → structural pivot
🔻 AR: 92,160 → distribution confirmation if lost
🎯 Target: 89,050 – 87,206 (fib + horizontal confluence)
🟠 Final invalidation for reaccumulation: weekly close below 87k
Whether we’re heading for Phase D markdown or one final shakeout before markup, this structure will define BTC’s path for the coming months.
Bias: Bearish unless price reclaims UTAD with strength.
Conviction: Grows with breakdown + volume spike under 101k.
Trade active
Price reclaimed BC and UT levels with a daily close now retracing back from UT and with low volume. If price can't hold UT and BC levels, distribution will be confirmed and this would be the LPSY moment to sell. If on the other hand if price holds above BC and UT and UTAD level is reclaimed, then this idea will be invalidated.
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Protect your Bitcoin investment with our realtime alerts and fully automate your trading. No more sleepless nights, black swans, rug pulls, whale pump & dumps or getting sidelined.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.