BTCUSD Chart Analysis (Daily Timeframe)
1. Securing the Last LONG Position
The last LONG position should be secured in profit because:
Price failed to sustain higher levels and is now rejecting resistance.
If the price drops further, it could trigger a deeper correction.
The risk-to-reward ratio shifts once key support levels start failing, making holding a long position less favorable.
Locking in profits prevents giving back gains if price reverses.
2. Why This Is the MAX Risk Point for a New Short
🚨 A new SHORT signal has NOT yet been given, but if it prints, we must wait for the daily close to confirm it.
Key reasons why this is the max risk point:
✅ Price is still within a key decision zone (near support and trendline levels).
✅ If price bounces and holds above current levels, shorts would be trapped.
✅ Shorting prematurely without a confirmed close could result in a fakeout.
✅ Stochastic Indicator is still crossing up, meaning a bounce could occur before confirmation.
3. Short Confirmation & Timing Considerations
📌 If a SHORT signal appears, DO NOT enter immediately. Instead:
Wait for the daily close → Confirms that price sustains bearish momentum.
Watch for key breakdown levels → If price stays below support zones at ~80,000 - 86,000, bearish continuation is likely.
Check volume confirmation → A high-volume breakdown strengthens the short thesis.
Conclusion
⚠️ Right now, we are at a decision point:
If the price holds above current support, another move up is possible.
If a SHORT signal is printed, we still wait for the daily close to confirm.
Max risk for a new short is NOW, because shorting too early without confirmation could lead to a reversal.
💡 Patience is key—wait for the right signal before entering! 🚀
Current Price Context
BTCUSD is trading at ~$84,380, showing a -2.81% daily decline.
Price recently failed to break above key resistance (~86,000–88,000 zone).
Volume is slightly increasing on the downside, indicating some seller momentum.
The Stochastic RSI is still crossing up, meaning there is a chance for a bounce, but it is approaching a critical zone.
Most Probable Next Scenario (Scale of 1-10)
🔴 Bearish Breakdown: 7.5/10
🟢 Bullish Bounce: 2.5/10
**Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely) – 7.5/10
If price closes below ~$84,000, this will confirm a breakdown of key intraday support.
Next major support zones:
$80,000 (psychological and technical support)
$73,000 – $72,000 (strong demand & historical support)
$65,400 (worst-case bearish scenario in the near term)
Key Reasons for Bearish Bias:
✅ Failure to hold higher levels → Bears are in control.
✅ Trendline resistance rejection → Price rejected a major downtrend.
✅ Bearish order flow on volume → Sellers are stepping in.
✅ No new long confirmations → Momentum fading.
✅ Potential lower high structure forming → Could lead to further downside.
📌 If the daily closes red and under support (~84,000), a move towards 80,000 is highly probable.
**Bullish Bounce (Less Likely) – 2.5/10
If BTCUSD manages to reclaim ~$86,000 and sustain, bulls could attempt another push.
Resistance levels to watch:
$86,000 → Short-term reclaim level.
$88,000 - $92,000 → Key breakout zone.
$99,800 - $107,000 → Longer-term bullish targets.
What Would Change the Bias to Bullish?
❌ Price MUST reclaim $86,000+ with high volume.
❌ A strong daily close above $88,000 would confirm bullish continuation.
❌ Short squeeze event leading to a big move up.
📌 Until these conditions are met, the bullish scenario remains unlikely.
Final Thoughts
Bearish breakdown is more likely (7.5/10 probability).
If BTC closes today under $84,000, expect a move to $80,000-$73,000.
A bullish reversal is unlikely unless BTC reclaims $86,000+ convincingly.
No new SHORT signal has printed yet, but if it does, wait for the daily close to confirm.
📢 Trading Plan:
1️⃣ If price breaks down below $84,000 and closes red, SHORT confirmations are strong.
2️⃣ If BTCUSD holds $84,000 and reclaims $86,000, potential bounce.
3️⃣ Wait for daily close confirmation before making high-risk trades.
🚀 Most probable next move: More downside towards $80,000 unless bulls reclaim key resistance.
Key Factors That Could Trigger a Drop Below $70K
🔴 1. Major Support Breakdown ($80K → $72K →
65K)
If $80,000 fails, BTC is likely to retest $72K–
73K, a historically strong support level.
If $72K fails, the next major demand zone is $65,400.
Below $65,000, panic could set in, leading to a cascade of liquidations.
📉 Critical Breakdown Levels Below $70K:
$72,000–$73,000 (historical demand, strong support)
$65,400 (deep correction support)
$55,000–$58,000 (absolute worst-case scenario in a full-blown market panic)
🔴 2. Leverage Wipeout & Liquidation Cascade
BTC is heavily leveraged. A sharp drop below $80K–$72K could trigger mass liquidations, accelerating the decline.
Whales may intentionally push price below key liquidation levels to wipe out overleveraged longs before rebuying lower.
🔴 3. Macro & Sentiment Shifts
If stocks crash, inflation fears rise, or interest rates stay high, BTC could suffer from risk-off sentiment.
If major institutions or miners start selling, BTC could dip below $70K temporarily before stabilizing.
Probability of a Drop Below $70K?
Short-term (1-2 weeks): 3.5/10 (Unlikely but possible if BTC fails $72K).
Medium-term (1-2 months): 5.5/10 (More likely if macro conditions worsen).
Black Swan Event: 8/10 (If panic liquidations hit, BTC could momentarily dip to65K or even $58K).
Bottom Line:
⚠️ BTC remains at risk for deeper corrections.
✅ Below $80K, expect increased volatility & potential $72K retest.
✅ If BTC loses $72K, sub-$70K becomes a real possibility.
✅ Only a major liquidation cascade would push BTC towards65K–$58K.
🚨 If price action weakens, be prepared for rapid downside acceleration!
1. Securing the Last LONG Position
The last LONG position should be secured in profit because:
Price failed to sustain higher levels and is now rejecting resistance.
If the price drops further, it could trigger a deeper correction.
The risk-to-reward ratio shifts once key support levels start failing, making holding a long position less favorable.
Locking in profits prevents giving back gains if price reverses.
2. Why This Is the MAX Risk Point for a New Short
🚨 A new SHORT signal has NOT yet been given, but if it prints, we must wait for the daily close to confirm it.
Key reasons why this is the max risk point:
✅ Price is still within a key decision zone (near support and trendline levels).
✅ If price bounces and holds above current levels, shorts would be trapped.
✅ Shorting prematurely without a confirmed close could result in a fakeout.
✅ Stochastic Indicator is still crossing up, meaning a bounce could occur before confirmation.
3. Short Confirmation & Timing Considerations
📌 If a SHORT signal appears, DO NOT enter immediately. Instead:
Wait for the daily close → Confirms that price sustains bearish momentum.
Watch for key breakdown levels → If price stays below support zones at ~80,000 - 86,000, bearish continuation is likely.
Check volume confirmation → A high-volume breakdown strengthens the short thesis.
Conclusion
⚠️ Right now, we are at a decision point:
If the price holds above current support, another move up is possible.
If a SHORT signal is printed, we still wait for the daily close to confirm.
Max risk for a new short is NOW, because shorting too early without confirmation could lead to a reversal.
💡 Patience is key—wait for the right signal before entering! 🚀
Current Price Context
BTCUSD is trading at ~$84,380, showing a -2.81% daily decline.
Price recently failed to break above key resistance (~86,000–88,000 zone).
Volume is slightly increasing on the downside, indicating some seller momentum.
The Stochastic RSI is still crossing up, meaning there is a chance for a bounce, but it is approaching a critical zone.
Most Probable Next Scenario (Scale of 1-10)
🔴 Bearish Breakdown: 7.5/10
🟢 Bullish Bounce: 2.5/10
**Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely) – 7.5/10
If price closes below ~$84,000, this will confirm a breakdown of key intraday support.
Next major support zones:
$80,000 (psychological and technical support)
$73,000 – $72,000 (strong demand & historical support)
$65,400 (worst-case bearish scenario in the near term)
Key Reasons for Bearish Bias:
✅ Failure to hold higher levels → Bears are in control.
✅ Trendline resistance rejection → Price rejected a major downtrend.
✅ Bearish order flow on volume → Sellers are stepping in.
✅ No new long confirmations → Momentum fading.
✅ Potential lower high structure forming → Could lead to further downside.
📌 If the daily closes red and under support (~84,000), a move towards 80,000 is highly probable.
**Bullish Bounce (Less Likely) – 2.5/10
If BTCUSD manages to reclaim ~$86,000 and sustain, bulls could attempt another push.
Resistance levels to watch:
$86,000 → Short-term reclaim level.
$88,000 - $92,000 → Key breakout zone.
$99,800 - $107,000 → Longer-term bullish targets.
What Would Change the Bias to Bullish?
❌ Price MUST reclaim $86,000+ with high volume.
❌ A strong daily close above $88,000 would confirm bullish continuation.
❌ Short squeeze event leading to a big move up.
📌 Until these conditions are met, the bullish scenario remains unlikely.
Final Thoughts
Bearish breakdown is more likely (7.5/10 probability).
If BTC closes today under $84,000, expect a move to $80,000-$73,000.
A bullish reversal is unlikely unless BTC reclaims $86,000+ convincingly.
No new SHORT signal has printed yet, but if it does, wait for the daily close to confirm.
📢 Trading Plan:
1️⃣ If price breaks down below $84,000 and closes red, SHORT confirmations are strong.
2️⃣ If BTCUSD holds $84,000 and reclaims $86,000, potential bounce.
3️⃣ Wait for daily close confirmation before making high-risk trades.
🚀 Most probable next move: More downside towards $80,000 unless bulls reclaim key resistance.
Key Factors That Could Trigger a Drop Below $70K
🔴 1. Major Support Breakdown ($80K → $72K →
65K)If $80,000 fails, BTC is likely to retest $72K–
73K, a historically strong support level.If $72K fails, the next major demand zone is $65,400.
Below $65,000, panic could set in, leading to a cascade of liquidations.
📉 Critical Breakdown Levels Below $70K:
$72,000–$73,000 (historical demand, strong support)
$65,400 (deep correction support)
$55,000–$58,000 (absolute worst-case scenario in a full-blown market panic)
🔴 2. Leverage Wipeout & Liquidation Cascade
BTC is heavily leveraged. A sharp drop below $80K–$72K could trigger mass liquidations, accelerating the decline.
Whales may intentionally push price below key liquidation levels to wipe out overleveraged longs before rebuying lower.
🔴 3. Macro & Sentiment Shifts
If stocks crash, inflation fears rise, or interest rates stay high, BTC could suffer from risk-off sentiment.
If major institutions or miners start selling, BTC could dip below $70K temporarily before stabilizing.
Probability of a Drop Below $70K?
Short-term (1-2 weeks): 3.5/10 (Unlikely but possible if BTC fails $72K).
Medium-term (1-2 months): 5.5/10 (More likely if macro conditions worsen).
Black Swan Event: 8/10 (If panic liquidations hit, BTC could momentarily dip to
65K or even $58K).Bottom Line:
⚠️ BTC remains at risk for deeper corrections.
✅ Below $80K, expect increased volatility & potential $72K retest.
✅ If BTC loses $72K, sub-$70K becomes a real possibility.
✅ Only a major liquidation cascade would push BTC towards
65K–$58K.🚨 If price action weakens, be prepared for rapid downside acceleration!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.