Bitcoin: No Action At Range Low Good For Longs?
U.S holiday price action appears to be playing it's part in Bitcoin's slow price action, but this doesn't change anything. Bitcoin is in a consolidation within a broader BULLISH trend since April. Price continues to probe range lows which does NOT provide any evidence of progress or TREND on our time frame of interest. Keep in mind weak markets BREAK supports, they don't maintain them for long periods. The 8500 area is the key support that we are referencing in order to anticipate the herd mentality and gauge risk. In this video I will further explain the probability and potential of the current price location and why we continue to manage our swing trade LONG.
There is a lot of confusion around the concept of "trend". It is actually a very subjective idea which should be rooted by the TIME FRAME that your strategy utilizes. For example, if you are only interested in a higher frequency of trades, small targets and tighter stops, then a small time frame is appropriate. If you are trying to gauge risk and participate in broader market moves (as in 1000s of points) then small time frames (less than 8 Hrs) will only blind you. Many traders will argue that the "trend" is bearish because of some random structure on a 1 hour chart, but that information carries no weight within the scope of OUR long ONLY swing trade strategy.
Testing the 8800 and 8900 areas is not even close to compromising the 8500 support. The fact that buyers continue to step in (tails on recent candles), can be interpreted as strength. As long as this entire range (8500 to 10,400) stays intact, it is likely to act a continuation pattern and since the larger trend is bullish, probability still favors a bullish move (higher lows lead to higher highs). Until this structure changes (like a break of 8500), judging it any other way on this time frame is just asking for lower probabilities. Slow markets like these require a LOT of PATIENCE, and a strong understanding of how price structure shapes expectations. The evidence that carries the most weight continues to point to a bullish outcome, but there is no way to know when this will unfold. A few minor pullbacks into the low of the range is nothing more than NOISE and should not be confused with a trend on this time frame. A surprise catalyst can come out of no where, and next thing you know everyone is "predicting" 20K again. If you want to win, you must be positioned ahead of the herd, not react with it. We will continue to hold our long from 9225 and if it gets stopped out, we will wait for a new signal to go long again (unless price breaks 8500).
There is a lot of confusion around the concept of "trend". It is actually a very subjective idea which should be rooted by the TIME FRAME that your strategy utilizes. For example, if you are only interested in a higher frequency of trades, small targets and tighter stops, then a small time frame is appropriate. If you are trying to gauge risk and participate in broader market moves (as in 1000s of points) then small time frames (less than 8 Hrs) will only blind you. Many traders will argue that the "trend" is bearish because of some random structure on a 1 hour chart, but that information carries no weight within the scope of OUR long ONLY swing trade strategy.
Testing the 8800 and 8900 areas is not even close to compromising the 8500 support. The fact that buyers continue to step in (tails on recent candles), can be interpreted as strength. As long as this entire range (8500 to 10,400) stays intact, it is likely to act a continuation pattern and since the larger trend is bullish, probability still favors a bullish move (higher lows lead to higher highs). Until this structure changes (like a break of 8500), judging it any other way on this time frame is just asking for lower probabilities. Slow markets like these require a LOT of PATIENCE, and a strong understanding of how price structure shapes expectations. The evidence that carries the most weight continues to point to a bullish outcome, but there is no way to know when this will unfold. A few minor pullbacks into the low of the range is nothing more than NOISE and should not be confused with a trend on this time frame. A surprise catalyst can come out of no where, and next thing you know everyone is "predicting" 20K again. If you want to win, you must be positioned ahead of the herd, not react with it. We will continue to hold our long from 9225 and if it gets stopped out, we will wait for a new signal to go long again (unless price breaks 8500).
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