Timeframe: 1 Week (Halving Mapping)
This article focuses on three key aspects of Bitcoin’s halving, based on historical research:
Bull Market Moves
Bear Market Moves
Pre-Halving Moves
As you can see in the chart above, the previous halving events have been mapped out, providing a clear picture of Bitcoin’s price behavior. Historically, after each halving, Bitcoin enters a bull market, followed by a bear market. Additionally, I’ve observed and mapped a unique pattern that isn’t widely discussed: a pre-halving upward move that occurs before the halving event. This pre-halving move often provides significant returns, especially after a bear market phase.
For investors and long-term holders, this presents an opportunity to divide investments into two parts:
Pre-Halving Move: Capitalize on the upward momentum before the halving.
Post-Halving Bull Run: Benefit from the sustained bull market after the halving.
These strategies don’t require extensive technical analysis. A deep dive into historical data makes the patterns clear. Historically, after an uptrend, Bitcoin experiences a downtrend lasting between 1.5 to 2 years. Keeping these patterns in mind can help you craft effective investment strategies.
Current Market Bull Run Update
A common question among traders and investors is: Has the bull run ended? Is this the last exit point for Bitcoin?
Based on my research, the bull run is not over yet. While we may see a downward move in the near term, this is likely to be a manipulation phase, creating FOMO (fear of missing out) among traders who might believe the bull run has ended. However, Bitcoin is expected to make one final upward move, reaching a new all-time high. This final phase is likely to occur in the latter part of this year, with 2025 being entirely dominated by the bull run.
Looking at the 2020 halving chart, you can see a clear "M" shape pattern. At that time, the market experienced a similar phase where the "M" shape completed, and Bitcoin retraced significantly, creating FOMO. However, it eventually surged to a new all-time high in the final phase. Currently, I believe we are witnessing the formation of a similar "M" shape. Bitcoin is in the process of completing the first half of the "M," which could lead to a downward move. However, this is not a cause for panic. After this retracement, Bitcoin is expected to complete the "M" shape and reach a new all-time high later this year.
On-Chain Analysis Insights
From an on-chain perspective, it’s evident that major investors have not fully exited their positions. There’s a general sentiment among large holders to create FOMO, allowing them to buy back at lower prices. This aligns with my research, suggesting that the current market dynamics are part of a larger strategy.
Additionally, the recent delay in the bull run can be attributed to the rise of meme coins. These coins have created a frenzy, with politicians and influencers jumping on the bandwagon to launch their own meme coins. This has diverted attention and capital from Bitcoin, causing a slight delay in its upward momentum. However, once the meme coin hype subsides, Bitcoin is expected to resume its upward trajectory.
Summary
Halving Mapping: Three key phases were discussed – the bull run, bear market, and pre-halving upward move.
Current Chart Structure: Bitcoin is forming a half "M" shape, which may lead to a downward move before completing the pattern and reaching a new all-time high later this year.
2025 Outlook: The entire year of 2025 is expected to be dominated by the bull run.
Note
My goal is to simplify the chart and help you understand the price action clearly. I avoid overloading the chart with unnecessary indicators or creating confusion. My analysis focuses on keeping the chart clean and straightforward.
Thank you!
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.