What people don't understand is that in previous cycles BTC moved away from 200ema/ma so much that there was enough room for it to drop as much as %80(approximately), now that's not the case... Measured from 69k top to 200ema, worst-case scenario %65 drop would make the bottom for bear market it also confluences with RSI levels..
Things change over time... Diminishing volatility with a higher market cap only supports this thesis.