BitcoinLong
Bitcoin: Supercycle Wave III Incoming?
Hi folks,
i have been around here for around 3 years now (yeah, started early 2017 :) ) and i have decided that the time has come to publish my first analysis.
Before i start i want to share some thoughts and fundamentals, how i got to this analysis:
As the title tells, i am using a different foundation for my elliot wave count than most of the others i have read from: I think we are in a supercycle wave II, while most are counting it as supercycle wave I, with wave 4 as a possible triangle. This was how i was counting not so long ago.
My main problem with this count is, that every source i found to this, starts counting in early 2012. But Bitcoin has been traded before (Mt Gox). This means a lot of data on charts provided by TV is missing. Starting the count in early 2012 gets to a currently building wave 4 in a supercycle wave I.
But if you take charts from Mt Gox into account, starting in 2010, you will see that there is one more wave, which i think is the real wave 1. It started august 2010 from nearly 0$ to 20$ in mid 2011. Then it corrected into late 2011 / early 2012. AND this is where the bitstamp chart starts!
Another reason why i think we are in wave II?
The timeframe: Bitcoin went up to 20000$ in roughly 8 years. Since december 2017 it is in a correction, for around 2 years. This relation would fit into the bigger picture.
Now for those not familiar with elliot waves, i will try to explain in short how it works. If you know enough about it, just scroll through this paragraph.
An elliot wave cycle consists of an impulsive movement (1,2,3,4,5), followed by a corrective movement (A,B,C). Each wave consists of impulsive and corrective subwaves and so on.
The whole idea of the supercycle wave II started from the following analysis:
I think the movement of Bitcoin since december 2017 until now is a so called flat.
A flat is a corrective movement showing a 3-3-5 structure.
Wave A : corrective (A,B,C)
Wave B : corrective (A,B,C) / triangle (A,B,C,D,E)
Wave C: impulsive (1,2,3,4,5) / Ending Diagonal Triangle
For an easier understanding i have split the chart above in 3 parts, each for one wave of the flat.
I MADE AN OWN IDEA FOR EACH WAVE SO THAT YOU CAN GET INTO THE DETAILS. THESE ARE RELATED IDEAS BELOW.
Wave A:
This picture shows wave A of the overall flat. It is divided into 3 waves (A,B,C), which go together as a zigzag .
Zigzags are corrective movements showing a 5-3-5 structure:
Wave A : impulsive (1,2,3,4,5) / Leading Diagonal Triangle
Wave B : corrective (A,B,C) / exception : triangle (A,B,C,D,E)
Wave C : impulsive (1,2,3,4,5) / Ending Diagonal Triangle
Wave A is a leading diagonal triangle (waves 1 and 4 are crossing, which is only allowed in LDTs).
Wave B shows a triangle (A,B,C,D,E). In this case wave E is building a triangle ((A),(B),(C),(D),(E)) in the triangle. This is kind of a textbook pattern.
Wave C shows an impulsive movement (1,2,3,4,5) and hereby completes the zigzag .
Wave B:
This part is the main difference to any other analysis i have seen:
Most of them count it as an impulsive movement, which i have done, too. When i was counting in 2019, there was this huge formation, which i couldnt really integrate into my count.
But back then, everybody (including me) was so damn bullish , that it simply HAD to be impulsive. Moon incoming! Discussion over!
As i went through it again, i recognized that this formation could be a running flat, which would mean the following possibility:
It is not impulsive, it is corrective. Lets look at the chart: a 3-wave structure fits much better with this one big formation in the middle.
The wavecount underlines it: its another zigzag.
Wave C:
As explained earlier, a flat alway ends with an impulsive movement (1,2,3,4,5). Alternatively it could end with an Ending Diagonal Triangle.
In this case i think it could be an expanding one (mostly the occur as contracting EDT ).
These consist of 5 waves (i,ii, iii ,iv,v,) but with a 3-3-3-3-3 structure, which means all waves are corrective ones.
In comparison the above means, that Bitcoin should soon enter the next Bullcycle (wave III), breaking the ATH.
Thats it so far. Hope you guys like it.
i have been around here for around 3 years now (yeah, started early 2017 :) ) and i have decided that the time has come to publish my first analysis.
Before i start i want to share some thoughts and fundamentals, how i got to this analysis:
As the title tells, i am using a different foundation for my elliot wave count than most of the others i have read from: I think we are in a supercycle wave II, while most are counting it as supercycle wave I, with wave 4 as a possible triangle. This was how i was counting not so long ago.
My main problem with this count is, that every source i found to this, starts counting in early 2012. But Bitcoin has been traded before (Mt Gox). This means a lot of data on charts provided by TV is missing. Starting the count in early 2012 gets to a currently building wave 4 in a supercycle wave I.
But if you take charts from Mt Gox into account, starting in 2010, you will see that there is one more wave, which i think is the real wave 1. It started august 2010 from nearly 0$ to 20$ in mid 2011. Then it corrected into late 2011 / early 2012. AND this is where the bitstamp chart starts!
Another reason why i think we are in wave II?
The timeframe: Bitcoin went up to 20000$ in roughly 8 years. Since december 2017 it is in a correction, for around 2 years. This relation would fit into the bigger picture.
Now for those not familiar with elliot waves, i will try to explain in short how it works. If you know enough about it, just scroll through this paragraph.
An elliot wave cycle consists of an impulsive movement (1,2,3,4,5), followed by a corrective movement (A,B,C). Each wave consists of impulsive and corrective subwaves and so on.
The whole idea of the supercycle wave II started from the following analysis:
I think the movement of Bitcoin since december 2017 until now is a so called flat.
A flat is a corrective movement showing a 3-3-5 structure.
Wave A : corrective (A,B,C)
Wave B : corrective (A,B,C) / triangle (A,B,C,D,E)
Wave C: impulsive (1,2,3,4,5) / Ending Diagonal Triangle
For an easier understanding i have split the chart above in 3 parts, each for one wave of the flat.
I MADE AN OWN IDEA FOR EACH WAVE SO THAT YOU CAN GET INTO THE DETAILS. THESE ARE RELATED IDEAS BELOW.
Wave A:
This picture shows wave A of the overall flat. It is divided into 3 waves (A,B,C), which go together as a zigzag .
Zigzags are corrective movements showing a 5-3-5 structure:
Wave A : impulsive (1,2,3,4,5) / Leading Diagonal Triangle
Wave B : corrective (A,B,C) / exception : triangle (A,B,C,D,E)
Wave C : impulsive (1,2,3,4,5) / Ending Diagonal Triangle
Wave A is a leading diagonal triangle (waves 1 and 4 are crossing, which is only allowed in LDTs).
Wave B shows a triangle (A,B,C,D,E). In this case wave E is building a triangle ((A),(B),(C),(D),(E)) in the triangle. This is kind of a textbook pattern.
Wave C shows an impulsive movement (1,2,3,4,5) and hereby completes the zigzag .
Wave B:
This part is the main difference to any other analysis i have seen:
Most of them count it as an impulsive movement, which i have done, too. When i was counting in 2019, there was this huge formation, which i couldnt really integrate into my count.
But back then, everybody (including me) was so damn bullish , that it simply HAD to be impulsive. Moon incoming! Discussion over!
As i went through it again, i recognized that this formation could be a running flat, which would mean the following possibility:
It is not impulsive, it is corrective. Lets look at the chart: a 3-wave structure fits much better with this one big formation in the middle.
The wavecount underlines it: its another zigzag.
Wave C:
As explained earlier, a flat alway ends with an impulsive movement (1,2,3,4,5). Alternatively it could end with an Ending Diagonal Triangle.
In this case i think it could be an expanding one (mostly the occur as contracting EDT ).
These consist of 5 waves (i,ii, iii ,iv,v,) but with a 3-3-3-3-3 structure, which means all waves are corrective ones.
In comparison the above means, that Bitcoin should soon enter the next Bullcycle (wave III), breaking the ATH.
Thats it so far. Hope you guys like it.
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