Plan for Bitcoin
Updated
BTC is bearish and i expect to see small swings up, and drops. These are not good buying opportunities, the there is more risk than reward. BTC not only needs to break the downward trend line, but it must do so significantly. There are 2 walls where buying is occurring around at 40k and at 43k, outside these locations there isn't buying pressure (momentum) at the moment so this is bear country until both walls are broke, and the trend continues significantly to the yellow box. At that point I'd begin looking for entry positions in alts, and would keep a close eye on BTC's volume/momentum as it could still reverse. Keep in mind the yellow box is "potential" reversal, we could see another smaller mountain peak, and BTC continue to drop.
I'm still bearish on bitcoin at the moment and believe we will see the down trend continue with small upswings. There isn't enough consistent buying pressure for a reversal in trend. It seems like the whales left, and retail buying pressure doesn't account for much in this market. My outlook is that there will be lower lows to reach a real accumulation phase for institutions to enter their positions when BTC falls below 20k. I believe BTC will reach between 8-16k at that point.
I'm still bearish on bitcoin at the moment and believe we will see the down trend continue with small upswings. There isn't enough consistent buying pressure for a reversal in trend. It seems like the whales left, and retail buying pressure doesn't account for much in this market. My outlook is that there will be lower lows to reach a real accumulation phase for institutions to enter their positions when BTC falls below 20k. I believe BTC will reach between 8-16k at that point.
Note
BTC is still following the downward trend line nicely. When it bumps into the trend line it's usually the end of a bear flag and it drops. The drop creates a new flag pole and the process repeats.Unless something changes, BTC will continue to drop in price. This is the Wyckoff markdown phase where the price drops, drops, drops, then it will be accumulation time.
In the back of my mind, i'm just wondering how long it may lay low in the accumulation phase before it pulls back to spring into a new run up. After previous run ups/downs it has laid dormant for a while.
BTC may have more utility now than before, but don't let people trick you into thinking it's definitely going to xxx,xxx in the days/months, as it may not. Everyone called BTC e-gold (store of value), but right now gold is up and btc is down so that's not true. Alts also eat away at BTC when it gets too expensive which is a problem for btc if it's the primary coin and alts are a proxy.
There was so much hype during the run up with billionaires, news, and people you probably know talking about it, i feel like the price was way too high. So to me, the current price range 30-40k, feels way to high and doesn't provide room unless you believe its going way higher than 60k.
The lower it goes the better for a future run up. Look for the accumulation phase, and spring.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.