Bitcoin entering a long period of Wyckoff accumulation
Updated
So the bounce idea has been canceled by Powell. Awesome times we live in, where one single individual can dictate the direction of entire markets.
And since BTC is very strongly correlated with the stock market (unfortunately), this means that BTC is just following the general direction of the stock market.
And since the FED appears to be very hawkish, this means that the Bounce scenario is now all but ruled out.
I personally now favor a Wyckoff accumulation pattern such as last seen on a long timeframe in 2015. Basically the whole of 2015, BTC was hovering around 200 USD plusminus,
and only in late 2015 did BTC start to enter the next bull phase.
I think we'll get something similar this time. As soon as inflation has sufficiently fallen, the FED will halt raising interest rates, and the markets will enter the next bull phase, and
so will Bitcoin. Let us not forget that the halving approaches fast, in April 2024.
So i foresee the next peak in late 2024 or early 2025.
I also don't see a huge stock market crash like many, because if too many people believe that something will happen, then it won't.
In this accumulation phase, BTC can retest the low at 17600 at least one more time, but normally it should hold. I think the next BTC peak will be in the 200k ballpark. BTC doesn't perform
as well any more, as we would like. Last time we "only" got a 23x from the low to the top, now I think a 11 or 12x from the 17600 low is the best we can hope for. Law of diminishing returns
in full action here!
That is my current view :)
And since BTC is very strongly correlated with the stock market (unfortunately), this means that BTC is just following the general direction of the stock market.
And since the FED appears to be very hawkish, this means that the Bounce scenario is now all but ruled out.
I personally now favor a Wyckoff accumulation pattern such as last seen on a long timeframe in 2015. Basically the whole of 2015, BTC was hovering around 200 USD plusminus,
and only in late 2015 did BTC start to enter the next bull phase.
I think we'll get something similar this time. As soon as inflation has sufficiently fallen, the FED will halt raising interest rates, and the markets will enter the next bull phase, and
so will Bitcoin. Let us not forget that the halving approaches fast, in April 2024.
So i foresee the next peak in late 2024 or early 2025.
I also don't see a huge stock market crash like many, because if too many people believe that something will happen, then it won't.
In this accumulation phase, BTC can retest the low at 17600 at least one more time, but normally it should hold. I think the next BTC peak will be in the 200k ballpark. BTC doesn't perform
as well any more, as we would like. Last time we "only" got a 23x from the low to the top, now I think a 11 or 12x from the 17600 low is the best we can hope for. Law of diminishing returns
in full action here!
That is my current view :)
Note
Bitcoin is still wyckoffing around. If the pattern holds, this will go on until December, where it will make a fake breakout to the upside, only to then make fun of us, and fall back down to the 17k area one last time, as it happened in 2015:Note
So what the hell was that event yesterday? Is the Wyckoff pattern invalidated?No, actually, the timing was just right:
It went a little lower than expected, but we are now at the point before the next runup and before the final shakeout.
The idea is invalidated if Bitcoin continues to fall below 17100.
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