When will it end? A bigger picture look at BTC
Updated
Hi Guys,
With an inbox full of messages asking when this bloodbath is going to end, and what people should do - I wanted to see if I can offer some insight as to where I see us in the market right now. To be clear, this is not a prediction or trade advice, my personal opinion only.
From MY perspective:
1) We have this bullish wedge (purple) that has been forming and respecting for quite some time now. The positive there is that it’s ultimately a bullish structure on a larger timeframe, the bad news for some of you is that we haven’t broken it yet, and it can keep going down from here. That’s the truth. I’m sorry if that’s hard to hear.
2) RSI is oversold on the daily chart and there has been so much selling in the last 10 days that we are likely to see some relief at some point soon, if only a brief one.
3) Some fairly significant Fibonacci levels and support structures have been broken now, are there more below us? Absolutely. But to discount further downside is foolish and dangerous.
4) On a positive note there are a lot of signs that there is some serious accumulation going on in the market, and these huge sell orders are not being soaked up by ‘Janet the single stay-at-home mom in Ohio’ I can promise you that! These are major players, and they aren’t stupid. None of these guys are soaking up these sell orders at these prices if they think we’re headed down to $1000 or anywhere close.
5) From here;
- We can target the bottom of this wedge and head back up again to retest the top of the structure for a breakout (rough idea shown in green)
- We can stay in this wedge structure for a while until accumulation is complete and the CO’s and control structure are ready to make a move. Which will be the most painful option and therefore quite likely! (Yellow)
- We can break out of this structure to the downside (Red) and cause absolute carnage in the retail market, “bitcoin is dead” major capitulation blah blah blah and then the mother of all bounces where you least expect before a trend reversal and new bull market.
My advice, as always..... is to use a buying strategy that offers you the maximum amount of reward whilst minimising your exposure at any significant price point. In other words, set a series of laddered limit orders from where we are now, down to some ridiculous prices that you never think will get filled - and then you win either way. Unless you think BTC is going to Zero, in which case - get off my page and stop wasting time! Haha
As your orders get filled, you lower your average buy price (known as Dollar Cost Averaging). And if you get orders filled at silly low prices in the event of an aggressive move down, then you’re laughing. If they don’t get filled, you lose nothing.
Stay calm, don’t panic, and look at the bigger picture. In 5 years time, are you going to be laughing about this, or bankrupt?.....
And who do you trust more to make ‘wealth generating decisions’ ....
Billionaires, Hedge Fund Managers, WinkleVi, Major Tech Companies, Venture Capitalists and so on and on and on......
Or Barry the FUDaholic on trading view who doesn’t even post any useful content and lives in his parents basement?.....
I say no more.
The Colonel xxx
With an inbox full of messages asking when this bloodbath is going to end, and what people should do - I wanted to see if I can offer some insight as to where I see us in the market right now. To be clear, this is not a prediction or trade advice, my personal opinion only.
From MY perspective:
1) We have this bullish wedge (purple) that has been forming and respecting for quite some time now. The positive there is that it’s ultimately a bullish structure on a larger timeframe, the bad news for some of you is that we haven’t broken it yet, and it can keep going down from here. That’s the truth. I’m sorry if that’s hard to hear.
2) RSI is oversold on the daily chart and there has been so much selling in the last 10 days that we are likely to see some relief at some point soon, if only a brief one.
3) Some fairly significant Fibonacci levels and support structures have been broken now, are there more below us? Absolutely. But to discount further downside is foolish and dangerous.
4) On a positive note there are a lot of signs that there is some serious accumulation going on in the market, and these huge sell orders are not being soaked up by ‘Janet the single stay-at-home mom in Ohio’ I can promise you that! These are major players, and they aren’t stupid. None of these guys are soaking up these sell orders at these prices if they think we’re headed down to $1000 or anywhere close.
5) From here;
- We can target the bottom of this wedge and head back up again to retest the top of the structure for a breakout (rough idea shown in green)
- We can stay in this wedge structure for a while until accumulation is complete and the CO’s and control structure are ready to make a move. Which will be the most painful option and therefore quite likely! (Yellow)
- We can break out of this structure to the downside (Red) and cause absolute carnage in the retail market, “bitcoin is dead” major capitulation blah blah blah and then the mother of all bounces where you least expect before a trend reversal and new bull market.
My advice, as always..... is to use a buying strategy that offers you the maximum amount of reward whilst minimising your exposure at any significant price point. In other words, set a series of laddered limit orders from where we are now, down to some ridiculous prices that you never think will get filled - and then you win either way. Unless you think BTC is going to Zero, in which case - get off my page and stop wasting time! Haha
As your orders get filled, you lower your average buy price (known as Dollar Cost Averaging). And if you get orders filled at silly low prices in the event of an aggressive move down, then you’re laughing. If they don’t get filled, you lose nothing.
Stay calm, don’t panic, and look at the bigger picture. In 5 years time, are you going to be laughing about this, or bankrupt?.....
And who do you trust more to make ‘wealth generating decisions’ ....
Billionaires, Hedge Fund Managers, WinkleVi, Major Tech Companies, Venture Capitalists and so on and on and on......
Or Barry the FUDaholic on trading view who doesn’t even post any useful content and lives in his parents basement?.....
I say no more.
The Colonel xxx
Note
Forgot to mention.The green box around 5500-5800 is where I have personally chucked some buy orders for investment purposes, not swing trade or short term positions.
And lower, just in case.....
Note
Big green dildo + watching multi-million dollar shorts get liquidated = grab the popcorn and watch.... NOT FOMO IN
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