BTC at a critical juncture, continuation or top?
Updated
Welcome friends and traders alike to this analysis on Bitcoin! We are going to do a little bit deeper dive than usual on what Bitcoin is doing and see exactly what the potential of what could happen in the coming months. Which is while we'll start with the weekly and I will post some other charts zoomed in so we can get a better idea of what is going on. The first thing to note is that BTC is at a very critical stage right now. It has created a significant high and it also has come back off that hard. For a time we were forming a descending triangle, however that idea was nixed when bitcoin rallied from the 9k level to 12k. It has stayed in the range for the past couple weeks without breaking out of it one way or another. Why is this area critical? it determines where the market as whole is going in general over the next couple months. A break to the upside indicates a significant rally could be coming, while a break to the downside indicates that we are going lower. Potentially to the 4k area. All though I think 5-6k are much more probable. On the upside, if we break up we could go all the way back up to 20k. Again really critical area.
Let's get into it even more, starting with the weekly chart.
Topping action - Does the most recent top resemble the previous? Is it a run-up consolidation pattern or topping action?
On the weekly, we can see the consolidation pattern has formed pretty clearly. RSI has formed a pretty clear top and diverged accordingly and has moved below the previous low by just a hair. If we gauge this indicator, it would indicate that we are getting a further move down. MACD is so close to crossing down on the weekly. While the cross hasn't happened yet and doesn't look like it will be that strong of a cross, crossing to the downside nevertheless doesn't bold well for a larger move up.
On the daily, we can see the same consolidation pattern on a much more detailed basis. The first thing to notice is while we are in this smaller blue triangle, we could pop up to the red trend line before breaking out. A break down of the blue and red would lead to significant downside risk. We can see that RSI is in this no mans lands almost right in the middle. While MACD has turned negative and doesn't look good at the moment.
All in all, it's going to be interesting to see what happens next.
Best of luck trading and hodling,
-Sherem
Let's get into it even more, starting with the weekly chart.
Topping action - Does the most recent top resemble the previous? Is it a run-up consolidation pattern or topping action?
On the weekly, we can see the consolidation pattern has formed pretty clearly. RSI has formed a pretty clear top and diverged accordingly and has moved below the previous low by just a hair. If we gauge this indicator, it would indicate that we are getting a further move down. MACD is so close to crossing down on the weekly. While the cross hasn't happened yet and doesn't look like it will be that strong of a cross, crossing to the downside nevertheless doesn't bold well for a larger move up.
On the daily, we can see the same consolidation pattern on a much more detailed basis. The first thing to notice is while we are in this smaller blue triangle, we could pop up to the red trend line before breaking out. A break down of the blue and red would lead to significant downside risk. We can see that RSI is in this no mans lands almost right in the middle. While MACD has turned negative and doesn't look good at the moment.
All in all, it's going to be interesting to see what happens next.
Best of luck trading and hodling,
-Sherem
Note
Previous ideas: 
Note
We rejected this upwards movement again, it seems a downward move is just a matter of time.Note
Lot of fuss about this last move up. While we broke a minor trendline to the upside, we still haven't breached the major one. For now, not much has changed in the prognosis.Note
Finally getting this move to the downside, still a couple key levels to break before some major fireworks start, but we are starting.Note
Remember folks, while it is a descending triangle. It could just be a massive flag that breaks out. But what is happening is alts are moving and have a lot of upside
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