As noted in earlier TA, the April correction was almost identical to the February correction, which leaves us to ponder two outcomes, one based on the current pattern/data, and one based on how Bitcoin performed following the February correction.
Background:
What is Next/Scenarios:
1. We soon break short term from the ascending triangle into a fakeout/bull trap before correcting below the macro broadening wedge, falling towards the 20/21W SMA/EMA, which is also the bottom support for the bull cycle. This particular area is also converging on a strong value area and where we succesfully bounced from in April's correction, so there is a compelling case to be made for a correction to 48/49k (maybe a wick to 47) double bottom and bounce.
2. We see a weak breakout from the triangle and wedge and continue to range/consolidate through May. This would be a modified version of what we saw in March, without the second drop. I believe all signs point to more accumulation by industry here, including some new OTC purchases in the past week of over 10,000 BTC each. In this case we may range slowly like in March, and this would also gain time for the 20/21W SMA/EMA to rise a little more with an opportunity to retest it later in the month or possibly June at a higher price.
Background:
- Week 2 historically in this cycle is the preferred week for Bitcoin and the market to correct. We noted that the corrections since December are always in Week 2 (February an exception due to Elon/Tesla news). That could be anywhere in week 2 - or it may not come at all due to the breakdown of the macro pattern in April. Set tight stoplosses.
- We see indications of continued accumulation by big money, and observed scattered whale activity triggering a couple sell-offs this week, but not enough to make a notable correction.
- The correction in February was followed by a month of consolidation and accumulation.
- We are ranging around 12% in price every ~5 days on the current macro.
What is Next/Scenarios:
1. We soon break short term from the ascending triangle into a fakeout/bull trap before correcting below the macro broadening wedge, falling towards the 20/21W SMA/EMA, which is also the bottom support for the bull cycle. This particular area is also converging on a strong value area and where we succesfully bounced from in April's correction, so there is a compelling case to be made for a correction to 48/49k (maybe a wick to 47) double bottom and bounce.
2. We see a weak breakout from the triangle and wedge and continue to range/consolidate through May. This would be a modified version of what we saw in March, without the second drop. I believe all signs point to more accumulation by industry here, including some new OTC purchases in the past week of over 10,000 BTC each. In this case we may range slowly like in March, and this would also gain time for the 20/21W SMA/EMA to rise a little more with an opportunity to retest it later in the month or possibly June at a higher price.
Note
NOTE this is invalidated if in the short term Bitcoin's breakout from the ascending triangle blows past the resistance on the wedge, which could lead to a retest of 60k
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.