Super Bowl 51 was one of the greatest comebacks ever. I mean at halftime it looked like Atlanta was unstoppable, and I too FELT that. Actually I had a few bones on the game and I was already calling up buddies to collect their money. Hootin and Holllarin, online surfing Amazon to insure I had my Atlanta championship hat and shirt by Tuesday. I was riding the high hog, as we said back in the hollar! But then when Atlanta came out in the second half and put up another 7 on the boards making it 28-3, even NE fans started to doubt. But my one buddy said "you know Tom Brady is the comeback king right?" LOL your crazy want to throw another $20 on it at 3-1? Yes you know that trend I say over and over is your friends. Tom Brady was #2 in the history of 2nd half comebacks! What happened after that was the greatest comeback of all times. We all know how Atlanta fans felt.
That brings us to BTC' and where all the bulls have been hootin and hollarin, $6000-$12000 in 2weeks to 3 months. But the game isn't over. And shockingly there are some hurdles ahead for both the bear and bull camps, but there is a very strong indication that the bull trend may be turning in the short term. The RSI! I've marked the chart, moving away from EW and Fibb and soley looking at the trend channel formed. That's all I need to see right now. The bulls need to stay out of the channel. The upper trend channel originally was resistance it has now become support The bears need to break back into the channel, and the upper trend needs to hold resistance. Now I received many questions yesterday concerning what do I mean about a break the trend line. My messages did blew up when we broke $4200 your an idiot comments. Well I'm not sure touching the line is breaking through where I am from. This isn't football where you only have to break the line for a touchdown. It must not only go through but show its sustainable. This means a very strong move through the line, or it retests the line and continues in the trend direction. I can understand their enthusiasm, as they thought they crossed the finish line, they are up 28-3 and blowing up the twitter sphere. Now I'm not saying we can't go higher from here. And as I mentioned multiple times, LONG TERM I'M BULLISH. But in the mid-short term I'm still in BEAR camp. The RSI may be telling us why!
Twice now we have seen a divergence of the RSI indicator vs price movement of BTC as marked on the graph over the past few days. This could signal a trend reversal. It often does. However after looking at how ZEC moved yesterday you never know. Looked like NVDA on steroids. Unless you can catch a breakdown I would NOT be shorting here. I like to wait for consolidation and low term risk trades, vs trading volatility which is often a coin flip at best. We want direction and trend confirmation. So as the RSI has diverged from the trend, and we are now pulling back from the intern high, we must monitor to see whether the bears can mount a second half comeback. 3-1 anyone? We did tune into the $4553 level as our ultimate X turning point a couple days ago, so we must keep in mind the market does not move straight up nor straight down. I believe the term is fibbonacci pinball created by a great analyst.
That brings us to BTC' and where all the bulls have been hootin and hollarin, $6000-$12000 in 2weeks to 3 months. But the game isn't over. And shockingly there are some hurdles ahead for both the bear and bull camps, but there is a very strong indication that the bull trend may be turning in the short term. The RSI! I've marked the chart, moving away from EW and Fibb and soley looking at the trend channel formed. That's all I need to see right now. The bulls need to stay out of the channel. The upper trend channel originally was resistance it has now become support The bears need to break back into the channel, and the upper trend needs to hold resistance. Now I received many questions yesterday concerning what do I mean about a break the trend line. My messages did blew up when we broke $4200 your an idiot comments. Well I'm not sure touching the line is breaking through where I am from. This isn't football where you only have to break the line for a touchdown. It must not only go through but show its sustainable. This means a very strong move through the line, or it retests the line and continues in the trend direction. I can understand their enthusiasm, as they thought they crossed the finish line, they are up 28-3 and blowing up the twitter sphere. Now I'm not saying we can't go higher from here. And as I mentioned multiple times, LONG TERM I'M BULLISH. But in the mid-short term I'm still in BEAR camp. The RSI may be telling us why!
Twice now we have seen a divergence of the RSI indicator vs price movement of BTC as marked on the graph over the past few days. This could signal a trend reversal. It often does. However after looking at how ZEC moved yesterday you never know. Looked like NVDA on steroids. Unless you can catch a breakdown I would NOT be shorting here. I like to wait for consolidation and low term risk trades, vs trading volatility which is often a coin flip at best. We want direction and trend confirmation. So as the RSI has diverged from the trend, and we are now pulling back from the intern high, we must monitor to see whether the bears can mount a second half comeback. 3-1 anyone? We did tune into the $4553 level as our ultimate X turning point a couple days ago, so we must keep in mind the market does not move straight up nor straight down. I believe the term is fibbonacci pinball created by a great analyst.
Note
Just a few more trends indicators and levels I'm watching.Note
For those that do not believe trend lines are the key and the most important aspect of being a trader, look at how it bounced twice off the trend line almost like we wrote the script, and on the 3rd it failed to hold. and look how quickly it dropped. This is not a all in short play unless you caught the initial break, and I would cover quickly as it's only a touchdown for the bears, let's not look as ridiculous as they did with their were headed to $7000 calls. let's keep our composure, have some class, and get ready to play defense. Score 10-28 bulls still lead!Note
The long wick to the downside may signal that this will be short lived as buyers jumped in. we will most likely test the upper channel. Just a note of caution, players!Note
If your unsure about BTC and want to hedge in the event we get the pullback we anticipate, I highly recommend reading the DASH article I just posted.Note
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Until you can identify trend lines and draw channels, all the BB ich-clouds etc will not mean a thing. This is how powerful they are. we drew this days ago and the action is at the trend lines. The channel is consolidating which is good as direction is becoming more clear, and a breakout up or down will be strong with a high probability short term trade long or short. Note
Action extended provides better evidence of consolidation!Note
This is where you can start trading the channel using RSI if you are doing that. I caution you must be tight with stops and not become a pig! $50-$75 profits are the stones that make mountains!Note
A BULLISH THESIS - I'm not sure 100% of the count but it doesn't break any rules, I have not dove into deeply, so please keep this in mind. But this is the alternate bullish thesis I get if we break $4700ish. I do not believe this is more probable than the Bearish Thesis but keep in mind it is a probable path. I did not like the wave 5 some have us in so this provides and alternate thesis. Regardless of your theory you must always look at other paths to keep your finances in check. DO NOT THINK THIS CAN NOT HAPPEN.Note
A BEARISH THESIS - In my opinion this is the more probable path. I know many of you are starting to draw trend lines from my messages, this again is the key to any successful trader or investor. Keep in mind after the IV wave we are headed higher. Regardless of whether you are bullish or bearish a pullback is eventually inevitable. Whether now or in two years. equities tend to revert back to the long term trend line. This is messy but it's my scratch pad.Note
I will have to say the longer I look at the bull pattern, I do like the symmetry along the trend lines.Note
Just an update, still no clear direction either way, but the fact we have had a correction similar to past corrections all we can say for sure is we are still in a correction! But I was looking at the chart this morning and thought I post what I am following on my charts. I added the PPO as the MACD is commonly used, but for long term trends is worthless.Overshot the $4200 target, but it's relative to the price. it's like having a target of $42 on a stock and it hits $43.60. Hopefully things become more clear on the pullback if we get one, a break to the upside would not negate the overall correction, unless we breach the $4800 level. Then back to reworking the charts.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.