🕯️ 4H Chart Analysis | June 19, 2025
🎯 Targeting: $93.3K CME Gap | Confluence: AVWAP zones + Structure breaks
Thesis:
We're currently hanging off the edge of a volume profile cliff. Price is coiled beneath a broken rising wedge, hugging the POC from the prior rally. The key idea: liquidity has shifted, and the next high-probability move is a breakdown through key VWAP levels into the CME gap at ~$93.3K.
📉 Funding Shift:
Funding remains slightly negative or flat across major venues — signaling late longs are trapped and paying to hold.
📊 Open Interest Still Elevated:
– Total BTC OI: $69.41B
– CME OI: $16.50B (23.77%)
– Binance OI: $11.67B (16.8%)
– Bybit OI: $7.66B
– OKX OI: $4.02B
– CME is now the largest BTC derivatives venue by notional OI — institutionals dominate this range.
– Despite the recent drop, OI only fell -0.6% (24h) system-wide — leverage still bloated and vulnerable.
💱 CME Basis Compression:
June front-month futures trade only ~$35 above spot — basis compressed to ~0.03%. Carry trade is gone; CME gap below is now magnetic.
🛡️ Macro Narrative: Credential Meltdown
Today marks the largest password leak in digital history (16 billion credentials). If this leads to broader cybersecurity fear, crypto might feel downstream de-risking effects.
📉 Spot vs. Derivatives Skew:
Derivatives OI/volume is high; spot demand remains muted. Suggests price is levitating on leverage — not sustainable without real buyers.
📍 Invalidation Levels:
– Short-term: 4H close above $106.6K = invalidates immediate breakdown setup.
– Macro: Weekly close above $109K with rising OBV = negates CME gap gravity.
✍️ Execution Logic:
If $103K breaks alongside a $500M+ OI flush → scale into short
TP1: $100.3K, TP2: $97.6K, TP3: $93.3K CME gap
🟠 AVWAP targets:
- $102K (orange line) – currently being tested.
- $97.6K – Fib 0.382 zone + AVWAP cluster.
- $93.3K – CME Gap + “Golden Supply Zone” + Fib 0.5.
📉 Liquidity Logic:
- Shorts got squeezed early June — now the longs are stuck. Thin air below. If we nuke through $102K, the dominoes fall cleanly: AVWAP by AVWAP until CME gap closes.
Volume & Profile:
🟦 High-volume node just got pierced.
📉 We’re slipping below the POC — next major support is structurally far below.
Price Levels to Watch:
Immediate breakdown: $100.3K wick zone
Support fade targets:
🔹 $97.6K (Fib & AVWAP)
🟠 $93.3K (Gap)
🟢 $88.9K (Fib 0.618, possible overshoot)
Narrative Summary:
Shorts are gone, longs are sweating. This is the AVWAP death ladder scenario. CME gap acts like gravity when no major buyers step in. Until price reclaims above broken trend structure, every bounce is suspect.
🎯 Targeting: $93.3K CME Gap | Confluence: AVWAP zones + Structure breaks
Thesis:
We're currently hanging off the edge of a volume profile cliff. Price is coiled beneath a broken rising wedge, hugging the POC from the prior rally. The key idea: liquidity has shifted, and the next high-probability move is a breakdown through key VWAP levels into the CME gap at ~$93.3K.
📉 Funding Shift:
Funding remains slightly negative or flat across major venues — signaling late longs are trapped and paying to hold.
📊 Open Interest Still Elevated:
– Total BTC OI: $69.41B
– CME OI: $16.50B (23.77%)
– Binance OI: $11.67B (16.8%)
– Bybit OI: $7.66B
– OKX OI: $4.02B
– CME is now the largest BTC derivatives venue by notional OI — institutionals dominate this range.
– Despite the recent drop, OI only fell -0.6% (24h) system-wide — leverage still bloated and vulnerable.
💱 CME Basis Compression:
June front-month futures trade only ~$35 above spot — basis compressed to ~0.03%. Carry trade is gone; CME gap below is now magnetic.
🛡️ Macro Narrative: Credential Meltdown
Today marks the largest password leak in digital history (16 billion credentials). If this leads to broader cybersecurity fear, crypto might feel downstream de-risking effects.
📉 Spot vs. Derivatives Skew:
Derivatives OI/volume is high; spot demand remains muted. Suggests price is levitating on leverage — not sustainable without real buyers.
📍 Invalidation Levels:
– Short-term: 4H close above $106.6K = invalidates immediate breakdown setup.
– Macro: Weekly close above $109K with rising OBV = negates CME gap gravity.
✍️ Execution Logic:
If $103K breaks alongside a $500M+ OI flush → scale into short
TP1: $100.3K, TP2: $97.6K, TP3: $93.3K CME gap
🟠 AVWAP targets:
- $102K (orange line) – currently being tested.
- $97.6K – Fib 0.382 zone + AVWAP cluster.
- $93.3K – CME Gap + “Golden Supply Zone” + Fib 0.5.
📉 Liquidity Logic:
- Shorts got squeezed early June — now the longs are stuck. Thin air below. If we nuke through $102K, the dominoes fall cleanly: AVWAP by AVWAP until CME gap closes.
Volume & Profile:
🟦 High-volume node just got pierced.
📉 We’re slipping below the POC — next major support is structurally far below.
Price Levels to Watch:
Immediate breakdown: $100.3K wick zone
Support fade targets:
🔹 $97.6K (Fib & AVWAP)
🟠 $93.3K (Gap)
🟢 $88.9K (Fib 0.618, possible overshoot)
Narrative Summary:
Shorts are gone, longs are sweating. This is the AVWAP death ladder scenario. CME gap acts like gravity when no major buyers step in. Until price reclaims above broken trend structure, every bounce is suspect.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.