We can see that on a technical basis the market is stuck in a symmetrical triangle and inside another possible symmetrical triangle. The predicted movement is up based on 4 hr and 1 day RSI but as you can see from 45 min RSI a fairly even amount of tight support and resistance between $9000 and $9300 has developed and volume is dropping off considerably as this consolidation happens. If we don't get a trigger to the upside this sideways price action could continue through the triangle or perhaps creep slightly higher. A breakdown below the downward trendline would open up a fall to the bigger trendline going back to March 2017 which suggests a major resistance level around $7500.
As you would expect with growing uncertainty the "winner" will be whichever side doesn't capitulate faster. So if the market is feeling bearish then buyers might pull out much more suddenly. Given the current trend it seems more likely that we'll see a drop before we see a more definitive reversal.
Many positive indicators have suggested that Bitcoin has hit a bottom. These include Tom Lee's new "BMI" or Bitcoin Misery Index, which suggests that the current misery level of holding Bitcoin hasn't been this low since September 2011. That being said, the BMI mainly suggests 12 month buying windows, which doesn't mean that much in terms of precision.
Google Search Trends have been much more prominently discussed and over the last two weeks Bitcoin has flattened in relative search over the last 12 months at about 20, which is more or less what it was through the late summer through fall period of 2017. This could also reflect a bottoming out / consolidation period that allows some of the dumb money / speculation to die out while giving the technology more time to mature and grown organically.
While downside risk at this price level realistically could be 67% based on a dip to $3000, that seems like a distant probability based on the current market sentiment and positioning within a sideways moving structure inside another sideways moving structure. It seems that with price stability sellers will be lulled into cancelling orders and a slow creep back towards the major $9800 resistance level could play out. Given this lack of clearly favorable reward:risk this would be the ideal time to play short duration intraday trades with small position sizes. However, over the last day or two this seems to have already played itself out and the end stages of this game is when volume completely dries up and price becomes totally stagnant. I'm watching the charts and BTCUSD has been sitting at exactly $9100 for 12 straight minutes now as of Tuesday, March 13 5:44 PM EST.
Looking at the 45 min RSI you can clearly see a convergence where the market can't decide on which direction things are going to go. A negative trigger here seems more likely to push the market lower than a favorable trigger which is a reason to be cautious.
When considering the Mt. Gox liquidiations, it's important to understand that the market moved dramatically higher from the point in which this selling supposedly started in September 2017. If we're to consider the risk of unbacked Tethers being used to inflate the market then it would seem these two activities cancel each other out to some degree.
If we consider that the market could see more liquidations while no new Tethers will be used to inflate the market then this would point to a negative trend in the intermediate term. On a longer term that money could likely end back up in Bitcoin or the crypto markets so depending on the timeframe for distribution of those funds we might see another big buying opportunity like in February followed by a longer term bullish period. This would fit the historical model of Bitcoin growth.
I would *GUESS* the reason we're stalling out around $9100 is because the market tends to see downside risk at about 50% while short term upside reward from that 50% level is $9100.