BitcoinShort
"Roll the Clip: The Sentiment Trap"
Updated
Let’s make this clear: this idea does not target a short position. While the exact timing of the next fall remains unconfirmed, I’ve outlined a potential movement starting from the yellow arrow at the 108K zone, extending downward to the gap area. The price could settle anywhere between $73,653 and $88,965, leaving the end result uncertain.
This chart is based on a 2-week timeframe. I will later create ideas on shorter timeframes to provide a more detailed breakdown of price movements. My auto trendlines will populate with plots that map out the trajectory of the price. As of now, this idea is about 25% complete, and the full story will unfold across subsequent ideas. Sharing everything here would only clutter the analysis.
Key Observations from This Idea:
The Triangles (Space Patterns):
The first white triangle represents the "space" formed during the broadcasting of the second wave.
The second white triangle reveals a similar space being formed, indicating that at some point, the price may need to revisit and fill this area space, just as it did with the first space. The gap reads like a magnet.
Custom Wicks and Trendlines:
My custom wicks display a clear relationship with the trendlines. While traditional wicks may suggest room for further uptrend, my analysis shows that the cycle from the previous All-Time High (ATH) has completed.
ADX and +DI Movement:
Pay attention to the ADX and +DI. When both move in the same direction, it signifies bullish momentum.
This suggests that despite any bearish sentiment during price declines, Bitcoin is likely gearing up for another wave surpassing the 108K mark.
The green arrow pinpoints where the 108K target was filled. From the bottom of the lime rectangle to its end, +DI began its journey to a new ATH. During this phase, ADX initially did not align with +DI, creating a bearish outlook in technical analysis. This misalignment triggered global fears of a Bitcoin crash, which played right into the hands of smart money. Prices were subsequently driven upward.
Crucial Insights:
As ADX and +DI now align in the same bullish direction, we must remain cautious. While this alignment reflects the reality of technical analysis (TA) and suggests Bitcoin's upward trajectory, it’s crucial to recognize the psychological play at hand. Smart money understands that traders will become increasingly bullish due to this signal, which could lead to dangerous overconfidence. When the herd leans too heavily on bullish sentiment, smart money often "rolls the clip" in the opposite direction—toward bearish moves.
Why the ADX and +DI Alignment Matters:
This alignment occurred because Bitcoin was already in motion, and this momentum couldn’t be artificially manipulated—it’s simply how the technicals unfolded. However, this doesn’t mean we should disregard the possibility of a strategic reversal driven by market psychology.
Next Steps:
I will shift my focus to shorter timeframes in my next idea to provide a clearer view of price movements. These shorter timeframes will help refine the analysis and illustrate the potential trajectory with greater precision.
Stay tuned as I continue to unravel the full picture in the upcoming ideas. Each piece will add depth to the narrative and enhance our understanding of Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
This chart is based on a 2-week timeframe. I will later create ideas on shorter timeframes to provide a more detailed breakdown of price movements. My auto trendlines will populate with plots that map out the trajectory of the price. As of now, this idea is about 25% complete, and the full story will unfold across subsequent ideas. Sharing everything here would only clutter the analysis.
Key Observations from This Idea:
The Triangles (Space Patterns):
The first white triangle represents the "space" formed during the broadcasting of the second wave.
The second white triangle reveals a similar space being formed, indicating that at some point, the price may need to revisit and fill this area space, just as it did with the first space. The gap reads like a magnet.
Custom Wicks and Trendlines:
My custom wicks display a clear relationship with the trendlines. While traditional wicks may suggest room for further uptrend, my analysis shows that the cycle from the previous All-Time High (ATH) has completed.
ADX and +DI Movement:
Pay attention to the ADX and +DI. When both move in the same direction, it signifies bullish momentum.
This suggests that despite any bearish sentiment during price declines, Bitcoin is likely gearing up for another wave surpassing the 108K mark.
The green arrow pinpoints where the 108K target was filled. From the bottom of the lime rectangle to its end, +DI began its journey to a new ATH. During this phase, ADX initially did not align with +DI, creating a bearish outlook in technical analysis. This misalignment triggered global fears of a Bitcoin crash, which played right into the hands of smart money. Prices were subsequently driven upward.
Crucial Insights:
As ADX and +DI now align in the same bullish direction, we must remain cautious. While this alignment reflects the reality of technical analysis (TA) and suggests Bitcoin's upward trajectory, it’s crucial to recognize the psychological play at hand. Smart money understands that traders will become increasingly bullish due to this signal, which could lead to dangerous overconfidence. When the herd leans too heavily on bullish sentiment, smart money often "rolls the clip" in the opposite direction—toward bearish moves.
Why the ADX and +DI Alignment Matters:
This alignment occurred because Bitcoin was already in motion, and this momentum couldn’t be artificially manipulated—it’s simply how the technicals unfolded. However, this doesn’t mean we should disregard the possibility of a strategic reversal driven by market psychology.
Next Steps:
I will shift my focus to shorter timeframes in my next idea to provide a clearer view of price movements. These shorter timeframes will help refine the analysis and illustrate the potential trajectory with greater precision.
Stay tuned as I continue to unravel the full picture in the upcoming ideas. Each piece will add depth to the narrative and enhance our understanding of Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
Note
I’ve laid a copy over the original chart, so please ignore the dates from the original chart. The prices are nearly aligned, so the focus should remain on the overall analysis rather than specific dates.
For Viewing the Chart Copy Clearly (with Dates and Prices, if needed):
On Mobile Devices:
Rotate your screen horizontally and use a browser to view the chart. This will allow you to move the copy around for better visibility.
On PC or Laptop:
You can manually adjust the overlay by dragging it to explore the chart in greater detail.
Chart Compression:
The copied chart may appear slightly compressed, but it is closely aligned with the original chart in terms of price structure. Any minor discrepancies in alignment should not affect the overall analysis.
This idea is intended to highlight patterns and provide insights, not to pinpoint exact dates or price levels. Use these visuals as part of a broader, flexible strategy rather than fixed predictions or outcomes.
Note
Implementing the "Institutional Ambush," which remains active on the weekly timeframe.
Note
Traders—let me take a moment to say this:
I know I don’t have to apologize, but somehow I feel like I should. Maybe it’s because I understand how much hope and anticipation many of you have for the market to turn bullish again. Who knows—there’s always a chance for a quick upside shift, but up until now, my plotter has been precise and hasn’t missed a beat. It’s consistently given us warnings about phantom hidden transactions—the kind of information that often goes unnoticed.
Didn’t many of you ask for advanced, proactive alerts like this? Well, here it is—delivered to you exactly when it’s needed most. These alerts aren’t just about identifying bull runs or euphoric rallies. As much as I’d love to always be on the bullish side, we all know that’s simply not realistic in this market. The truth is, preparation and foresight are far more valuable than blind optimism.
Now, I have some exciting news coming your way, but I’m holding off on sharing it for now—it’s not quite the right time yet. For those of you who’ve been eagerly waiting for alt-season, let me remind you of something we’ve already discussed: for altcoins to truly thrive, Bitcoin and ETH need to fall from the center of attention. This isn’t speculation—it’s how the market cycle works. The spotlight has to shift, and that shift is often accompanied by volatility and shakeouts.
So, I urge you to remain focused. The market is not just about waiting for bull runs or reacting emotionally—it’s about understanding the flow, which in still learning on spotting opportunities, and being ready for the next move. Big moves are on the horizon, and I’ll be here to guide us every step of the way.
Note
Here is what what’s been prepared—
Let’s dive deeper into each stage and explore why this dynamic between Bitcoin and altcoins unfolds the way it does:
1. Bitcoin Gains Attention (Driven by Smart Money)
When the market enters a bullish phase, Bitcoin is almost always the first asset to gain attention. This happens for a few key reasons:
Trust and Recognition: Bitcoin is the most established cryptocurrency, widely seen as a store of value or “digital gold.”
Smart Money Influence: Institutions, funds, and other large investors typically allocate to Bitcoin first due to its liquidity, lower volatility (compared to altcoins), and status as the market leader.
Retail FOMO: As Bitcoin rises, media attention and retail investors start piling in, driving demand even higher.
During this phase, Bitcoin dominance—the percentage of the total crypto market cap held by Bitcoin—usually increases, as most capital flows into BTC.
2. Altcoins Devalue or Stagnate
As Bitcoin starts its run, altcoins often lose value or underperform for several reasons:
Liquidity Drain: Capital flows out of altcoins and into Bitcoin, leaving less liquidity for smaller assets.
Market Sentiment: Traders prioritize Bitcoin during its strong moves, sidelining altcoins temporarily.
Altcoin Volatility: Many altcoins are more speculative and experience sharper corrections, which can scare off investors during Bitcoin’s bull run.
However, some altcoins—especially those tied to major narratives (e.g., Ethereum during the DeFi boom)—may perform well and “break out,” even as others stagnate.
3. Bitcoin Consolidates or Peaks, Altcoins Start Gaining
Once Bitcoin’s rally slows down or peaks, capital often rotates into altcoins, initiating the “alt season.” This happens because:
Profit-Taking from Bitcoin: Investors who gained substantial profits from Bitcoin’s rise start reallocating those gains into altcoins for higher risk-reward opportunities.
Market Euphoria: As Bitcoin stabilizes, investors look for “the next big thing,” turning their focus to altcoins.
Lower Barriers: Many altcoins are cheaper per unit, which attracts retail investors looking for high-percentage gains.
During this phase, altcoins often outperform Bitcoin, and many see explosive gains. Bitcoin dominance usually falls as altcoins capture more of the market’s attention.
4. Bitcoin Goes Bullish Again, Altcoins Follow or Stall
If Bitcoin resumes its bullish momentum after altcoins have had their run, two scenarios can unfold:
Altcoins Follow Bitcoin: If Bitcoin rises steadily, altcoins often follow suit, though not necessarily at the same pace. This leads to broader market growth.
Altcoins Stall or Retrace: If Bitcoin rises too aggressively, altcoins may struggle. This is because capital flows back into Bitcoin as traders chase its momentum, leaving less liquidity for altcoins.
Why This Cycle Happens
This pattern is driven by the interplay of market psychology, liquidity, and investor behavior:
Smart Money Leads, Retail Follows: Smart money allocates to Bitcoin first for stability, while retail investors often follow trends and narratives.
Liquidity and Volatility: Bitcoin absorbs liquidity first due to its larger market cap and lower risk. Altcoins, being more volatile and speculative, typically see attention once Bitcoin stabilizes.
Market Sentiment: Bitcoin is seen as the market’s “anchor.” When it performs well, it inspires confidence across the crypto space. Conversely, sharp Bitcoin moves can create fear or FOMO, influencing altcoin performance.
Final Thoughts
The order you initially provided aligns somewhat with the typical cycle but misses key nuances:
Altcoins devaluing isn’t always tied to Bitcoin’s rise—it depends on how aggressive Bitcoin’s move is and whether altcoins have compelling narratives driving them.
Altcoin seasons often rely on Bitcoin stabilizing, not just losing attention.
Bitcoin and altcoins can rise together, but Bitcoin’s dominance often dictates whether altcoins thrive or stall.
Note
Traders, bear this in mind:
The pump-and-dump activity on the daily timeframe isn’t just about one clear direction. It’s a process filled with ups and downs, and within one of those moves, a sudden fall will catch many by surprise. These swings are carefully designed to bait retail traders into making impulsive decisions while the larger process unfolds.
This behavior mirrors the classic bull flag scenario, where price fluctuations create the illusion of stability or a clear trend, only to lead to unexpected volatility. I firmly believe the next leg up won’t happen until the vast majority of traders turn bearish—a pattern we’ve seen time and time again.
That said, Bitcoin still looks incredibly bullish, even as it moves through this phase of manipulation. Stay focused, and don’t get caught off guard by the short-term moves. The market is setting the stage for its next major play.
Note
Those who follow this channel- if your not in the Bitcoin trade:
Be cautious about following the actions of retail traders around the world. Retail often buys aggressively, but this doesn’t always align with the true outcome of the market. As I mentioned yesterday—or perhaps the day before—Bitcoin remains firmly in the red zone and hasn’t broken out of it yet.
Later, I’ll explain where institutions typically step in. It’s similar to the bull flag scenario. Institutions never enter beneath the breakout point of a bull flag’s top trendline. Instead, they wait for confirmation, which comes when the weekly candlestick body closes above the trendline.
Why do they wait? Because bull flags almost always include a shakeout—a move designed to trap retail traders and clear out weak positions before the real breakout occurs. Institutions only act when the conditions are solidly in their favor.
There is a breakout, that’s part of my next ideas I’ve mentioned which I have to complete.
Note
Later, I’ll break down the key differences between the behavior of smart money and dumb money. It might sound harsh, but let’s face it—that’s the reality reflected in these terms.Note
USDT dominance (USDT.D) on the 1-hour timeframe is signaling a potential spike, indicating imminent pressure for crypto devaluation. This 1-hour chart provides a real-time view of market shifts, contrasting with the daily timeframe, which reacts more gradually. For a sharp and sustained crypto drop, BTC dominance (BTC.D) must remain negative, amplifying bearish sentiment across the market.
This is to close out by 11am PT in about 8 minutes to begin to spike but can delay depending on BTC.D and psychological behavior.
Note
Coinbase’s recent instability in processing Bitcoin buy and sell orders raises a significant red flag. This behavior highlights the risks associated with relying on platforms heavily influenced by retail activity. It’s essential to stay cautious and avoid being caught in the unpredictable nature of retail-driven market moves, which can lead to sudden volatility and unfavorable outcomes.Note
This price movement appears to be reversing downward, and I see it as nothing more than a bull trap. It seems designed to generate hype before ultimately driving the price lower.Note
Bitcoin remains poised for a decline. As of January 15, 2025, at 4:00 PM PT, dark pools have suppressed USD.D on the 23-hour timeframe. Bitcoin is still in the red zone, with the pump ongoing and the anticipated dump yet to occur. This was manipulated as I stated before and manipulated again. Nothing has changed. Note
The highest price range I anticipate for this move is $102,762 but I don't back that price up. Any price movement to the upside is at real risk. Note
Traders, here’s what’s happening. As I mentioned earlier, although I couldn’t fully commit to it, if the price continued upward, I anticipated it could reach the level I outlined in my previous idea, "The Wick Alignment Reversal," which was set at $102,762. However, I closed that idea days ago due to Bitcoin’s underlying weakness, despite its bullish appearance. I’ve been clear about this being a pump-and-dump scenario.
If the price does reach $102,762, great— That said, I rejected this level days ago because it’s based on an ATR calculation, and not all ATR targets are guaranteed to be filled. If, however, the price manages to push beyond this point, hear me out:
If there’s no bullish breakout above $103,265, in which I don’t, it reinforces the idea that the price is failing to gain upward momentum and is likely stalling. Here’s what this implies:
1. Limited Upside Potential:
Without a bullish breakout, $103,265 acts as a strong resistance level.
The price is unlikely to move higher unless it establishes new bullish momentum beyond this level.
2. Neutral to Bearish Bias:
Since the price is still within or near the neutral zone, it suggests indecision.
Failure to break $103,265 could lead to bearish pressure, especially if sellers step in at this level.
3. Consolidation or Reversal:
The market could enter a consolidation phase around this range.
Alternatively, it might signal an upcoming dump, particularly if the higher timeframes remain neutral
or show bearish tendencies in which I have no bullish breakouts above my daily timeframes.
In conclusion, without a bullish breakout above $103,265, the price is capped, and the risk of a reversal or dump increases. Traders should remain cautious and watch for any signs of breakdown below the neutral zone.
Note
In conclusion, without a bullish breakout above $103,265, the price is capped, and the risk of a reversal or dump increases. Traders should remain cautious and watch for any signs of breakdown below the neutral zone.
It’s gone way above it, but here’s what’s really to be considered:
My liquidity reads, based on ATR on the daily timeframe, are at +0.52%. Price must not exceed +1.00%, which means it will likely reverse if it goes above. This shows price has already reached +52% more than it was supposed to.
The weekly timeframe reads +0.86%, and the 2-week timeframe reads +0.70%. All of these percentages change as prices move.
Stay sharp
(Risk Management)
Note
Adding the "Grid" newest idea
Order cancelled
There’s a critical drop somewhere in the market, and it all comes down to timing it right for the next bullish leg up.
"You hear the wind, but where does it go?"
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