BitcoinShort
BTCUSD : dying bull run ?
Updated
Based on simple patterns on the 4h and daily, it seems that current bull run is reaching its limits :
- RSI bearish divergence now clear on 4h, and hidden on daily
- Elliot count can hardly exhibit anything else than a full impulse (either 12345 or 123456789)
- Rising wedge (green) meaning exhaustion for the bulls
We could go a bit higher, even reach the 10k-13k range, but I think it's a very risky bet.
My primary scenario here is a correction down to 7800 range, due to :
- 0.618 fibonacci correction of previous impulse
- being a retest of previous resistance (blue line)
- being a retest of 5-year support line on log scale (red line)
Afterwards, hard to say, but I'd bet on another impulse which could explode upwards if red resistance (yearly) is breached convincingly.
Conclusion :
- I'm gradually closing my long which I reinforced throughout this bull run
- I'll be opening a careful short position once we break the rising wedge (green) downwards
- I'm looking forward to opening long again in the 7800 range
Your thoughts about it ?
Cheers, and happy trading !
- RSI bearish divergence now clear on 4h, and hidden on daily
- Elliot count can hardly exhibit anything else than a full impulse (either 12345 or 123456789)
- Rising wedge (green) meaning exhaustion for the bulls
We could go a bit higher, even reach the 10k-13k range, but I think it's a very risky bet.
My primary scenario here is a correction down to 7800 range, due to :
- 0.618 fibonacci correction of previous impulse
- being a retest of previous resistance (blue line)
- being a retest of 5-year support line on log scale (red line)
Afterwards, hard to say, but I'd bet on another impulse which could explode upwards if red resistance (yearly) is breached convincingly.
Conclusion :
- I'm gradually closing my long which I reinforced throughout this bull run
- I'll be opening a careful short position once we break the rising wedge (green) downwards
- I'm looking forward to opening long again in the 7800 range
Your thoughts about it ?
Cheers, and happy trading !
Note
Green rising wedge updated to take into account recent move upwards, and the larger picture. My previous analysis remains unchanged : I'm waiting for a serious correction to the 7800 range before we can resume a healthy bull run to the moon.
Note
Market is still shaky with some serious ups and downs, but correction has begun and seems to continue with a huge move downside. My target is the 8k range (0.618 fibonacci), at which point my current short position will already be closed already, and I'll be waiting for confirmed higher highers to build up a long, hopefully to the moon.
Yet, my present short position is careful : market mood is highly bullish, and golden cross combined to ichimoku buy signal may kill the correction at 0.236 or 0.382 fibonacci levels to resume the bull run. Yet, I'll wait for a clear uptrend before taking any long.
Cheers, happy trading !
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