First time Bitcoin has showed strength since the 10K, what now

Updated

Allot of people became bears again and the remaining bulls were getting desperate since each attempt to rally up got sold off/pushed down again. Buyers have finally stepped up a bit and continued the rally from 5800/6400 up to 6600. At the moment the bulls are trying to keep the momentum in their favor, but there is a big chance that buyers from the low are taking profit now. That's nothing more than normal after the big rally we have mad already. Yesterday i thought we could see another push up to 6700/6800, but at the moment it seems like that is to much to ask.

In the chart we can see a possible rising wedge and that big support level around 6400. There is big chance we will drop out of the wedge the coming days (from here or maybe still that last push up). Depends on what the bulls will do IF we get around the 6350/6500. We should see at least some support there, because if that breaks to easily it would be a very bad sign that this correction up might be over already. Don't think this will happen, but we have to be prepared.

So my expectation is more likely the blue and red line, i would like to see the blue line succeed, but that will depend on what happens this weak AND if bulls the bulls manage to hold the support. If that happens, we need to see what kind of bounce we will see from that support, to be able to judge if we continue this rally (blue line) or slowly turns down again (red line). Even though we are still in the bear trend, i think there is room for a bigger correction up first, above the 7.000, if we follow that blue line (inverse H&S) we should be able to get in the mid 7K's. But i don't like to call it upfront and rather just follow the path the price action is showing us on the way. Alts have made some good rallies, but we also see some small weaknesses there at the moment.

So as long as the 6300 holds, my view stays bullish (for the short term at least).

David

Previous analysis

Bitcoin finally showing some strength, been a while

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Bulls tried to push a bit higher, but selling pressure was to much eventually and bitcoin broke the support line of the (possible) wedge. So far there is quite some buying support around the 6450, but i think there is a chance we might drop a bit more before we bounce up again. Probably see a few tests of the support before we start to rally up again. Don't want to see the 6300 break for the bullish version/ the inverse H&S

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Maybe because this rally happened to soon, could be yesterday/todays move was not the right shoulder of the inverse H&S. So might still drop again to 6500/6400 to form a more solid right shoulder.

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I had just posted this a few minutes ago in my groups, and within a minute or so the price got pumped again. Since it got pushed down right away, looks like my story is still valid. This move was just another game again, been a while actually since we have seen a Bart move, they are mixing it up again!

At the moment we are at, what i call, the 50 yard line (right in the middel of things). This is a zone, when your not already in a position, you should not trade it and wait for clearer signs. I think we can still make a drop towards the 6300/6450 try to test support again before we start to move up again. But very difficult to say what will happen in the mean time. The last update i gave, said we could see another drop and we did, but the bulls caught the price pretty well and pushed it back up again, So they might be able to push it a bit higher again before we make another drop to those support levels. You can see 2 blue lines, of how things could go.
So i would not enter a trade here, maybe wait for higher prices to maybe short or just wait until we get to around 6400 to go long again. I am not giving any trades, going to sleep now :) And will see what has happened tomorrow and THEN decide what to do

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Looks like we finally end this sideways action now, probably heading down again. My first idea is still the same, testing the 6400/6300 area again as a support, depending on how things go of course, we could see bounce up again after a solid test of the support.

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Starting to look like the bulls are loosing grip, small support around 6500, if that breaks we will probably test the more important support 6400. If that breaks as well, we might trigger an H&S with a target around 6200/6300. Normally i would say they won't let it drop during the weekend, but it won't be the first time they do it the past month. So bulls need to defend the 6500, otherwise it could mean troubles for the bulls.

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It looked like the 6500 would break, but the bulls DID defend that small green support and were able to build up enough short fuel to squeeze higher again. There is chance the right shoulder is complete already, bullish momentum is in favor at the moment. I think the bulls need to keep it above the 6700 to keep momentum high and they might be able to break the heavy resistance at 6800. But when that happens, we want to see a good rally, not just a 100 point jump again. If the bulls have the confidence to do that, we might be able to see more bullish moves the coming week.

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I will try to post a new analysis later today, i made the chart yesterday (80% sure this will be it). Not been able to write my thoughts that come with it yet. Don't want to scare anyone yet, but i afraid the red scenario is the most realistic one, unless we see a new big rally these days

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With 80% sure i mean that i will use this chart, not that i am 80% sure the red line will be the path we will follow. Even if the red scenario is the one the market will follow, there is still some room to the upside.

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This is looking bad, they did the same trick a week ago, first time it dropped to 5800, don't know what the plan is now. The 6550/6600 has to hold for the bulls, otherwise it could mean troubles and this whole rally could just be another bull trap.
It's testing the support as we speak, support of the trend line

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Chaos in crypto world again, look at this crap again. This is very bad people, if they continue at this speed today, that V shape low is becoming very realistic. Price in now within an import support zone, this one has to hold now!

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Before we all become 100% bears again in this emotional market, need to stay objective and look at what the realistic possibilities are. Before we made that squeeze sunday to 6800 i was still expecting 6300/6400, a good price to go long again. So why should i throw that idea in the garbage right now? No reason at all!

Of course it depends on what we will do the rest of the day, If we stay around these levels and bounce up and down a bit, there is still a chance for a rally up again and to break the 6800 resistance. It's much to soon to say right now. We probably have not seen the lowest point of this drop, best case we only drop 20/50 points below the previous low and see some short covering and some buying. If the 6250ish breaks, the inverse H&S will probably not be valid anymore and than i think only the 6100 will be the last support until the 5800/5900.

Just posting this to keep you guys objective

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The inverse H&S is still an option now, first small step has been made. If we would see another push to 6450/6500, the chances would increase even more. There is chance we have set the low for today or maybe even of this down move. Probably stay between 6300/6500 the coming day or 2 before starting a rally. The 6250ish should hold though

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So the 6300/6250 support level broke, though it would not happen, but seems the 6400 was to heavy and bulls gave up the fight. To many sell orders at 6400 on Bitmex (don't know what other exchanges had in the sell book).

The drop earlier today has not shown a bounce yet, something we the bulls need to be able to shake off this bearish movement. The 6100/6150 is maybe the last support level we have between that and the 5800/5900. Nothing to be seen in between. We can say the inverse H&S is not longer valid, unless we see a huge rally the coming day or 2, but those chances are very small, at least not worth thinking about.

I just hope for the bulls among us, this is not the start of that big V shape low I showed in the weekend. I knew it was a very realistic option but really thought the bulls would give a real fight around 6300.
I think the biggest problem (probably was), that alt coins were bleeding out big time during the sideways movement of Bitcoin and during the drop. That won't give bulls real confidence (or buying power) to start buying bitcoin.

There are 2 options i think, or the prices are getting pushed down for big players to fill up their alt bags (meaning it's all just a plan), or the market has turned to shit again (so no theory behind it) and we keep on dropping like a rock.

Whatever happens, we need to see at least some sign of life here from the bulls (and bears closing some shorts)

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Looks like we might see a reversal now, there is still some selling pressure, but the bulls are trying to make this flag succeed, if they manage to push it above the 6300, i think we might be able to see a big squeeze towards 6400/6500. Should not drop below the 6200/6150, because than the bullish momentum will be gone.

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Looks like we have a fractal here, bulls are trying to make another push up the past 2 hours, but selling volume keeps coming in. Bulls almost managed to force a squeeze, but they failed a few times already.

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Bulls took their time, but looks like a break out finally, as long as 6250 holds, we should be able to push through to the 6500. I used this chart again, to show that, even thought we dropped 150/200 points more, the inverse H&S could still be in play, but then i want to see 6800 maximum on Tuesday.
It is clear some people are holding the price around 6300 and now around 6350, during every squeeze attempt they push it down immediately. I think their just doing it because it's weekend and want to wait for Asia to open tonight. Don't know how much volume these people have, but from the looks of it, looks like their have more difficulties to hold the price, because bulls are stepping in, think with a few more brave souls, we could make a jump to 6500 (target of the triangle).

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We broke resistance, we even broke that small triangle, alts are pushing higher already, everything is set for a good rally, the only problem now is volume. It's to low and it's not confirming the break out. So 2 options, we make a pullback an test support around 6250/6300 again, or this was all just a bear shake out.
If we are able to hold support and make a decent rally now, we might even be able to reach the 6800 within 2 days, like i mentioned in the previous update. If bulls are ready to show some conviction here, there is a chance for 7K+ prices the coming weeks. But the coming few days will be decisive IMO

botje11

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