9/13 Will BTC Hold the Line? Eyes on Rate Cut and Reversal!
Overview:
Phone vibrates...
Voice: "Bogdanoff, he panic sold."
Bogdanoff: "Temporary bottom, reversal."
Voice: "He’s not biting."
Bogdanoff: "Pump it and paint a bull flag."
The
SP500 has posted five consecutive days of gains, stopping just 0.71% short of its all-time high. Meanwhile, 
QQQ still needs to rise another 5.84% to match its previous peak. However, both indices have seen declining volume for the past three days, signaling that market participants are bracing for Wednesday’s rate cut. Whether it will impact crypto positively or negatively is the big question. Given the meteoric rise this week, Monday and Tuesday are expected to be flat or slightly negative as traders take profits ahead of anticipated volatility.
ETF flows are showing signs of divergence. On Friday, Fidelity retail traders loaded up on
BTCUSD while Blackrock sat on the sidelines once again. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to be ignored, with Grayscale Trust even selling. Are altcoins really that depressing?
W: Bitcoin broke through the 58.4K weekly level but still has a long way to go before signaling a trend reversal. BTC needs to cross and hold above the 63K level to confirm a weekly uptrend. This week will likely close with a solid green candle, although a Sunday evening sell-off could bring the price back to the moving average around 58K.
D: As we mentioned yesterday, "This is either a chance to enter at the beginning of a new bull wave or the highest BTC will be in a long time." BTC crossed the Bollinger Bands’ moving average and the weekly level, moving into a new range between 58.4K and 61.47K.
4h: The price is now at an overbought RSI level of 70.89, signaling short-term bearishness.
1h: RSI is even more overbought at 77.06.
Alts relative to BTC: As noted earlier, the BTC vs. alts divergence is currently unfolding. Of the major coins, only
TAOUSDT has outpaced BTC’s 4% rise, with a 9% gain. Still, there's no sign of TAO being listed on Coinbase.
Bull case: If Jerome Powell manages a smooth landing, we could see gains from big tech stocks like Nvidia being recycled into small-cap tech and crypto. Following the first couple of rate cuts, if inflation remains under control and employment stable, the Fed could continue its policies, boosting global liquidity and fueling the final phase of the 2024 crypto bull run.
Bear case: ..phone vibrates.
Voice: "Bogdanoff, he bought."
Fear and Greed Index: 38.35, still in Fear territory. The last time BTC was at 60.3K, the Fear and Greed Index was between 43 and 55. Could this be another divergence?
Prediction: Expect a short-term correction to 58.4K, followed by rate cut-induced volatility next week.
Phone vibrates...
Voice: "Bogdanoff, he panic sold."
Bogdanoff: "Temporary bottom, reversal."
Voice: "He’s not biting."
Bogdanoff: "Pump it and paint a bull flag."
The
SP500 has posted five consecutive days of gains, stopping just 0.71% short of its all-time high. Meanwhile, QQQ still needs to rise another 5.84% to match its previous peak. However, both indices have seen declining volume for the past three days, signaling that market participants are bracing for Wednesday’s rate cut. Whether it will impact crypto positively or negatively is the big question. Given the meteoric rise this week, Monday and Tuesday are expected to be flat or slightly negative as traders take profits ahead of anticipated volatility.ETF flows are showing signs of divergence. On Friday, Fidelity retail traders loaded up on
BTCUSD while Blackrock sat on the sidelines once again. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to be ignored, with Grayscale Trust even selling. Are altcoins really that depressing?W: Bitcoin broke through the 58.4K weekly level but still has a long way to go before signaling a trend reversal. BTC needs to cross and hold above the 63K level to confirm a weekly uptrend. This week will likely close with a solid green candle, although a Sunday evening sell-off could bring the price back to the moving average around 58K.
D: As we mentioned yesterday, "This is either a chance to enter at the beginning of a new bull wave or the highest BTC will be in a long time." BTC crossed the Bollinger Bands’ moving average and the weekly level, moving into a new range between 58.4K and 61.47K.
4h: The price is now at an overbought RSI level of 70.89, signaling short-term bearishness.
1h: RSI is even more overbought at 77.06.
Alts relative to BTC: As noted earlier, the BTC vs. alts divergence is currently unfolding. Of the major coins, only
TAOUSDT has outpaced BTC’s 4% rise, with a 9% gain. Still, there's no sign of TAO being listed on Coinbase.Bull case: If Jerome Powell manages a smooth landing, we could see gains from big tech stocks like Nvidia being recycled into small-cap tech and crypto. Following the first couple of rate cuts, if inflation remains under control and employment stable, the Fed could continue its policies, boosting global liquidity and fueling the final phase of the 2024 crypto bull run.
Bear case: ..phone vibrates.
Voice: "Bogdanoff, he bought."
Fear and Greed Index: 38.35, still in Fear territory. The last time BTC was at 60.3K, the Fear and Greed Index was between 43 and 55. Could this be another divergence?
Prediction: Expect a short-term correction to 58.4K, followed by rate cut-induced volatility next week.
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