Building trade plans like a pro, not a poser.
This is a very generic trading post but I've decided to use the BTC chart because it seems apparent to me there are people here who may benefit from this.
In this post we're going to discuss the difference between building your trade plans like a pro trader rather than presenting your view as if it's solid Truth, like a poser.
Pros and Posers
There are various traits that separate pros from posers in this game.
Pros will acknowledge the limitations of their analysis and strategies. They'll speak in probabilities and use conditional statements. "If I am right, this is what I expect to see. If this happens instead, then I am wrong".
Posers will concurrently speak as if there are no limitations to their analysis while calling anyone who has a different opinion from them stupid.
Pros accept any form of analysis you can use will have a win/loss distribution. There are no sure fire ways to forecast the unknowable future. You're just a person. Looking at a screen. Using various flows of incomplete information to try to make estimates on the future. You think many things and you know nothing.
Posers will present themselves as some sort of divine being. Some of the comments and analysis I read on this site I find myself wondering if this poster thinks they're the entity that created the markets. The all knowing being. Casting down their unshakable wisdom to the pitiful simpletons with different opinions.
Pros talk about the failures of their strategies. They're not ashamed of times their methods do not work out. They already knew there was a win/loss distribution. It's absolutely inevitable there will be a percentage of their setups that do not work out.
Posers try to act like their failures didn't happen. or they didn't fail. They were just unlucky. This usually comes with an egregious double standard because they revel in attacking others when their thesis is anything less than perfect.
Pros understand they can become an expert in niches and not the knower of everything. For example, I am very good with theories of how trends form and fail. I've made a living for over 10 years largely trading into where I think the reversal points of trends are. I don't know if I'll be right or wrong but I've done the same thing so many times I can detail how the market usually acts if I am right or wrong.
See example:
Posers act as if they have divine knowledge over everything. Or all other forms of analysis that are not their is invalid. They do not accept their are limitations to the amount of things they know and then there are limitations to how well the things they know will work. They express a certainty they have no justification for.
Pros make plans based on a hypothesis and a null hypothesis. "I think this. Because of this. If this is right, this will happen. If this happens, that proves it wrong". A pro makes their plan in the same way a science experiment is designed. It's designed to TEST if an idea is valid with ways to prove it isn't valid if the test fails.
Posers don't have hypothesis'. They have their facts on the future. They'll both present as if there's absolutely no way they can be wrong and give no failure conditions. From the way they present their trade plans you'd think it was they themselves that would be painting the candles on the chart dictating the future.
-----
Most trading arcs go the same. Many of us are posers early on. Some start out as posers, because they have an inflated sense of themselves from the outset. Others start out neutral but once they've managed to get a bit of success this goes to their head and they start to think they're some sort of market God.
Most of us go through our God delusion section. It's just what happens when you bet on probabilities and have a hit streak. You think the reason you have a hot streak is you're a genius. Sooner or later, this is going to be followed by you thinking you're an idiot after a cold streak.
The path to having a pro mindset is littered with failures and disappointments. Slowly, but progressively, the market shows you how stupid you are. How foolish is it of you to assume to know the future. How efficiently you can be baited into thinking you're clever and acting boldly at the worst possible moment.
As you gain awareness of this, you learn you have to build safeguards into your plans. You switch from a style of your plans dictating the future to conditional plans which are ready to deal with the spectrum of things that can happen in the unknowable future. Pros have strong opinions, held weakly.
Your mindset progresses away from a need to feel you are right all the time to a desire to be able to control the zones in which you have to risk being wrong. The expressions you use to talk about the market change from definitive statements to probabilistic opinions. You come to understand being "Right" and "Wrong" are both illusions. They're just illusions.
The fact is, you're betting on a probabilistic outcome. A win/loss distribution. If you do this enough times, you are going to experience every possible outcome. You'll be hot and cold. Some days the windshield and other days the bug. You can experience swings of wins and losses in the market without it affecting your self-esteem.
If you do this for a long time, you come to see how stupid it is to tie your self-esteem to probabilistic events. It's like flipping a coin every day and if it's heads you walk about the day feeling smart and proud and if it's tails you shuffle through the day with your head hanging in shame. You have failed today - the coin didn't come up the right side. You were wrong.
For the sake of your profits, your mental wellbeing and generally being a more interesting person to interact with when it comes to discussing markets - work towards building your trade plans like a pro. If and when you do this, you'll start to notice just how laughable the poser's presentation is.
If you're going to survive in this game long term, you'll learn humility. Everyone does. If you're smart, you'll train it into yourself. Using the very simple truth, "I have no reason to believe I know the future infallibly, so I should be humble". If you're not smart - the market will beat this into you.
We are making probabilistic bets on an unknowable future. Anyone who acts like this is any different, is delusional. A market let's people keep their delusions for a long time, but it always takes them away in the end. Your delusions, and your money, will be swallowed up by the market - like so many people before you - and the market will move on like you didn't exist.
Markets have been tricking traders since before you were born. Act accordingly.
In this post we're going to discuss the difference between building your trade plans like a pro trader rather than presenting your view as if it's solid Truth, like a poser.
Pros and Posers
There are various traits that separate pros from posers in this game.
Pros will acknowledge the limitations of their analysis and strategies. They'll speak in probabilities and use conditional statements. "If I am right, this is what I expect to see. If this happens instead, then I am wrong".
Posers will concurrently speak as if there are no limitations to their analysis while calling anyone who has a different opinion from them stupid.
Pros accept any form of analysis you can use will have a win/loss distribution. There are no sure fire ways to forecast the unknowable future. You're just a person. Looking at a screen. Using various flows of incomplete information to try to make estimates on the future. You think many things and you know nothing.
Posers will present themselves as some sort of divine being. Some of the comments and analysis I read on this site I find myself wondering if this poster thinks they're the entity that created the markets. The all knowing being. Casting down their unshakable wisdom to the pitiful simpletons with different opinions.
Pros talk about the failures of their strategies. They're not ashamed of times their methods do not work out. They already knew there was a win/loss distribution. It's absolutely inevitable there will be a percentage of their setups that do not work out.
Posers try to act like their failures didn't happen. or they didn't fail. They were just unlucky. This usually comes with an egregious double standard because they revel in attacking others when their thesis is anything less than perfect.
Pros understand they can become an expert in niches and not the knower of everything. For example, I am very good with theories of how trends form and fail. I've made a living for over 10 years largely trading into where I think the reversal points of trends are. I don't know if I'll be right or wrong but I've done the same thing so many times I can detail how the market usually acts if I am right or wrong.
See example:
Posers act as if they have divine knowledge over everything. Or all other forms of analysis that are not their is invalid. They do not accept their are limitations to the amount of things they know and then there are limitations to how well the things they know will work. They express a certainty they have no justification for.
Pros make plans based on a hypothesis and a null hypothesis. "I think this. Because of this. If this is right, this will happen. If this happens, that proves it wrong". A pro makes their plan in the same way a science experiment is designed. It's designed to TEST if an idea is valid with ways to prove it isn't valid if the test fails.
Posers don't have hypothesis'. They have their facts on the future. They'll both present as if there's absolutely no way they can be wrong and give no failure conditions. From the way they present their trade plans you'd think it was they themselves that would be painting the candles on the chart dictating the future.
-----
Most trading arcs go the same. Many of us are posers early on. Some start out as posers, because they have an inflated sense of themselves from the outset. Others start out neutral but once they've managed to get a bit of success this goes to their head and they start to think they're some sort of market God.
Most of us go through our God delusion section. It's just what happens when you bet on probabilities and have a hit streak. You think the reason you have a hot streak is you're a genius. Sooner or later, this is going to be followed by you thinking you're an idiot after a cold streak.
The path to having a pro mindset is littered with failures and disappointments. Slowly, but progressively, the market shows you how stupid you are. How foolish is it of you to assume to know the future. How efficiently you can be baited into thinking you're clever and acting boldly at the worst possible moment.
As you gain awareness of this, you learn you have to build safeguards into your plans. You switch from a style of your plans dictating the future to conditional plans which are ready to deal with the spectrum of things that can happen in the unknowable future. Pros have strong opinions, held weakly.
Your mindset progresses away from a need to feel you are right all the time to a desire to be able to control the zones in which you have to risk being wrong. The expressions you use to talk about the market change from definitive statements to probabilistic opinions. You come to understand being "Right" and "Wrong" are both illusions. They're just illusions.
The fact is, you're betting on a probabilistic outcome. A win/loss distribution. If you do this enough times, you are going to experience every possible outcome. You'll be hot and cold. Some days the windshield and other days the bug. You can experience swings of wins and losses in the market without it affecting your self-esteem.
If you do this for a long time, you come to see how stupid it is to tie your self-esteem to probabilistic events. It's like flipping a coin every day and if it's heads you walk about the day feeling smart and proud and if it's tails you shuffle through the day with your head hanging in shame. You have failed today - the coin didn't come up the right side. You were wrong.
For the sake of your profits, your mental wellbeing and generally being a more interesting person to interact with when it comes to discussing markets - work towards building your trade plans like a pro. If and when you do this, you'll start to notice just how laughable the poser's presentation is.
If you're going to survive in this game long term, you'll learn humility. Everyone does. If you're smart, you'll train it into yourself. Using the very simple truth, "I have no reason to believe I know the future infallibly, so I should be humble". If you're not smart - the market will beat this into you.
We are making probabilistic bets on an unknowable future. Anyone who acts like this is any different, is delusional. A market let's people keep their delusions for a long time, but it always takes them away in the end. Your delusions, and your money, will be swallowed up by the market - like so many people before you - and the market will move on like you didn't exist.
Markets have been tricking traders since before you were born. Act accordingly.
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