BitcoinShort
BTC Analysis - Taking a Macro and Micro look at BTC
Updated
2 days ago (on the 22nd of April - marked on chart with light blue dashed line) I shared my chart for BTC showing an upward channel with a strong 9k resistance wherein I said "We need to break, and close above the RED 9k Resistance line to continue upward movement" which we did in the last few hours. So where will we be going next, what's the target, and is it time to Fomo?
In order to decide our next steps we need to have a Macro look at BTC.
MACRO
As you can see from the left side of my chart (60 Minute Candles on Bitfinex), BTC has been forming and confirming a Rising Wedge pattern since the gain on April 12th. There were 5 main tests of the wedge which confirm both the upper and lower line multiple times (numbered 1 through to 5). Some TA analysts extend the wedge back to April 1st, however, the movement from the period of April 1st to April 12th does not strike me as the traditional movement within a wedge and therefore I have excluded it.
We also tested the 55 EMA multiple times but only being able to remain below it for a few hours at a time.
I am expecting BTC to at a minimum bounce off the lower line where I have highlighted with a Red Triangle, or as a maximum for this to be the point which we break down out of the wedge. If and when we do break down I will provide an accurate target but for now, preliminary targets are based on a Fibonacci Retracement from 9th April at 6600 till 9300 a few hours ago. The levels are 0.382 Fib = 8274 / 0.618 Fib = 7636
MICRO
Looking in at the next few hours on the right side (15 Minute Candles on Bitfinex); we can see that the latest movements went from the lower trendline of our Macro wedge, to the upper in a fairly short amount of time. This tells me that the pressure is building and we will start to get more volatile soon as we ping pong like a pinball in an 80s pinball machine.
There are many possible moves BTC could make now, but I will talk about the 3 most probable: Fib Retracement, Bart & Testing Patience
Fib Retracement
If we look at the Fib retracement, we could see BTC retrace to 9121 (0.382 Fib) or even 9000 (0.618 Fib). Once it has completed this retracement it should continue back up towards the upper line. However; BTC has not really been following FIB as much as usual on the smaller time frames, but it is still a good possibility.
Bart
What the hell is a Bart? Google for "Bart Chart Pattern" :)
A Bart is a pattern whereby after a large and sudden pump there is an almost equal and almost as quick dump. If this does indeed happen then we should find ourselves somewhere between 8950 and 9000. The Bart should also happen suddenly as we approach and test the 55EMA *(Line in Yellow)* so keep your eyes on it.
Testing Patience
BTC could also keep retesting the upper line with the occasional retrace. Eventually, it will either have to break the upper line (less likely) or break the lower line most probably where I drew the Red Rectangle (me likey).
Final Words
There you have it. The MrTechie Macro and Micro View on BTC. Now you know what might happen, when it could happen, and how to spot if it truly has happened or if everyone around you is screaming FIRE when you know its time to make money.
Trade Safe - Set alerts - Put in Stop Losses and Be Happy :D
P.S. Rising Wedges are only 31% likely to break up - leaving a beautiful 69% chance of breaking down.
In order to decide our next steps we need to have a Macro look at BTC.
MACRO
As you can see from the left side of my chart (60 Minute Candles on Bitfinex), BTC has been forming and confirming a Rising Wedge pattern since the gain on April 12th. There were 5 main tests of the wedge which confirm both the upper and lower line multiple times (numbered 1 through to 5). Some TA analysts extend the wedge back to April 1st, however, the movement from the period of April 1st to April 12th does not strike me as the traditional movement within a wedge and therefore I have excluded it.
We also tested the 55 EMA multiple times but only being able to remain below it for a few hours at a time.
I am expecting BTC to at a minimum bounce off the lower line where I have highlighted with a Red Triangle, or as a maximum for this to be the point which we break down out of the wedge. If and when we do break down I will provide an accurate target but for now, preliminary targets are based on a Fibonacci Retracement from 9th April at 6600 till 9300 a few hours ago. The levels are 0.382 Fib = 8274 / 0.618 Fib = 7636
MICRO
Looking in at the next few hours on the right side (15 Minute Candles on Bitfinex); we can see that the latest movements went from the lower trendline of our Macro wedge, to the upper in a fairly short amount of time. This tells me that the pressure is building and we will start to get more volatile soon as we ping pong like a pinball in an 80s pinball machine.
There are many possible moves BTC could make now, but I will talk about the 3 most probable: Fib Retracement, Bart & Testing Patience
Fib Retracement
If we look at the Fib retracement, we could see BTC retrace to 9121 (0.382 Fib) or even 9000 (0.618 Fib). Once it has completed this retracement it should continue back up towards the upper line. However; BTC has not really been following FIB as much as usual on the smaller time frames, but it is still a good possibility.
Bart
What the hell is a Bart? Google for "Bart Chart Pattern" :)
A Bart is a pattern whereby after a large and sudden pump there is an almost equal and almost as quick dump. If this does indeed happen then we should find ourselves somewhere between 8950 and 9000. The Bart should also happen suddenly as we approach and test the 55EMA *(Line in Yellow)* so keep your eyes on it.
Testing Patience
BTC could also keep retesting the upper line with the occasional retrace. Eventually, it will either have to break the upper line (less likely) or break the lower line most probably where I drew the Red Rectangle (me likey).
Final Words
There you have it. The MrTechie Macro and Micro View on BTC. Now you know what might happen, when it could happen, and how to spot if it truly has happened or if everyone around you is screaming FIRE when you know its time to make money.
Trade Safe - Set alerts - Put in Stop Losses and Be Happy :D
P.S. Rising Wedges are only 31% likely to break up - leaving a beautiful 69% chance of breaking down.
Note
An addition added by my respected Colleague RedPsyI will add here more macro analysis. Lets say we are bulls and its not manipulated. We are sitting right under the fib 0.236. there is still room to go up.
But we have also ressitance at current level. If we want to push higher we will have to make a retracement and test our broken ressistance at 89. That will be very healthy for our Organic growth and bull run.
We were fighting this res at 89 for few days so if its acting as support it will indicate healthy market recovery and move up from there.
Looking on RSI its overbought and point down as well, consolidating at this level and retracing to 89 will make it restart and prepare for good move up.
SSO also very high and will eventually cross, Macd looks pretty good and has still room to go up.
Note
No Need To Panic - was just a false break - further confirming by bullish tendencies - RAWRNote
And another attempt to break the upper line - a failed attemptRemain calm and carry on
Note
So it seems that BTC has kept above the upper wedge line for some time now and is still gaining. This is in line with the "Testing Patience" as mentioned in the Micro View and as a result the other two possibilities still remain.I do not consider this to be a break out of the wedge due to the lack of growth. I will review the situation again when I awake and will see if perhaps the upper line needs to be adjusted to some other points or if BTC is simply ignoring the wedge.
Either way, play safe and Good Night
Note
Beware - A target has emerged 10k now seems to be the most likely reversal point.
Note
It broke down right through the middle of my red boxSo it seems that the break up was just a really strong false break
I hope you all managed to get out in time
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