Long

BTC Analysis based on Block frame and halving

Updated

this is not financial advise just my thought about BTC treatment .

i think its more helpful we check fractal or trend line base on block frame .

since BTC network created we experienced 2 halving .
i showed 2+1 halving time with vertical pink line.
3 period mentioned in chart :

First era - 1419 days from beginning to the first halving (28-11-2012) that include CPU, GPU and FPGA mining
Second era- 1319 days (28-11-2012 to 09-07-2016) in the early of the 2013 we faced to ASIC miners started with 2 TH , 16 nm chip developed in mid 2015
Third era- estimate to be 1417 days ( 09-07-2016 to 26-05-2020 !!!) ( refer to the website bitcoinblockhalf.com/) 16 nm chip (last ASIC technology) released in 2017-May-31

whenever Bitmain company released new devices we see new rally for example :

a- Gen 1 55 nm chip Nov 2011 price increased
b- Gen 2 28 nm Apr 2014
c- Gen 3 28 nm semi-custom sep 2014
d- Gen 4 28 nm full custom aug 2015 , price increased
e- Antminer s9 16 nm full-custom may 2017 price increased

i expect to see new power full miner devices in next 3 month .

continue ...

Note

i checked BTC network speed when the price was same as now 6348 $ almost 7 month ago. BTC had 8 EH/s network speed and today it have 40.17 EH/s.
during last 7 month (40,800 blocks ) network speed increased 32 EH which means 32,000,000 TH/s
if we divide above number to 14 TH/s for each formal BTC mining machine we can estimate that 2,285,714 Antminers join to the BTC networks.
i assumed each devices cost 800$ so we found that 1,828,571,428 $ invest to the BTC networks since 7 month ago. total BTC market cap (according to the coin market cap) 109,067,873,386$

1828571428/6370=287,059 BTC cost for mining 40,800 BLK

i did below calculation to find how far it profitable for miner :

40800 BLK *12.5 blk RW = 510,000 BTC == so ==> 1828571428/510000 = 3585 $

i think lowest price for BTC without any additional cost such as cooling, mining fee, device faulty, power cost,... can be 3585 $
-------------------------------
consideration :
a- formal and newest mining machine is antminer s9 with 14 TH/s and it cost near 800 $
b-

Note

if we add power cost calculation :

if we have 222 days from the beginning we have
2285714 S9 i Aantminers * 5328 hours * 1.320 KWh ( each device power usage ) * ( 0.05 /KWh = 803,766,756 $
total cost = device cost + power cost = 1,828,571,428 + 803,766,756 = 2,632,338,184 $

BTC price estimation for device cost and power cost: 5161 $

Note

i checked and compare RSI chart for 2nd vs 3rd era in below graph:

i used WXYXZ just for showing chart similarity .

each rsi charts divided into two parts , yellow section and blue section
yellow section in both chart follows exactly each other with 3x factor in time axis.

i thought second part ( Blue WXYXZ ) will follow same pattern with factor lower than 1x in time axis .

i prefer to choose lower than one factors because we have not seen any new commercial ASIC chip since mid 2015

Note

update

Note

update

MSHLFX

Also on:

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.