Overview: The first day of the trading week is over, with the market wobbling between two daily levels. The market (
BTC) could go in either direction—either completing a correction up to the Bollinger Bands' moving average (BB MA) at 61.8k or correcting down to at least 55.9k or possibly touching the lower band at 53.8k. Since the upper weekly line at 62.7k has already been touched, the second scenario seems more likely. One piece of bad news or a group of whales could drive the market in either direction. Note: Global liquidity has been dropping for the last eight days. When liquidity drops, significant pumps are unlikely.
Overall, we are likely finding the top of last week's correction upward and will soon start searching for a bottom, which may not be found immediately.
Alts Relative to BTC:
ETH is rebounding slightly better than BTC, possibly due to ETH's sharper drop. Altcoins closed Monday in the green, with 
SUI continuing to rally, up 28%, while 
TAO has posted four consecutive red days. 
SOL remains the star of this bull run, not correcting as much as expected.
Bull Case: The market finishes correcting upward to 61.8k. We've been receiving mostly negative news. For contrarians, this might be the time to buy.
Bear Case: The bull run has lost momentum, and the market slowly goes sideways before dropping down to 53.8k.
Fear and Greed Index: 52.4, slightly higher.
Weekly: Accumulation zone. Market remains undecided.
Daily: Same as the weekly outlook.
4h: Although we are in an accumulation zone, the 4-hour chart shows we broke down below the BB MA level and are trailing beneath it, indicating further weakness.
1h : Accumulation zone with no clear signs of movement.
Prediction:BTC likely to move sideways. ETH might rise slightly to 2.9k before dropping to 2.2k.
Opportunities:SOL: Broke down the weekly level but is hovering around it—consider shorting.
SUI: Broke up the weekly level due to unnatural demand from news. Unless more money flows in, this level won't hold in a bear market—consider shorting.
AR: Broke down the weekly level—consider shorting.
Reality: Correct yesterday 4h prediction, BTC trails lower after 3 black crows pattern.
Long TAO:TAO's on-chain analytics aren't widely available, with only limited information from DefiLlama and proprietary data from taostats.io. According to DefiLlama, only 12.15% of TAO's total token supply is unlocked, compared to 26% for SUI, which also has more available data. This, along with the fact that TAO isn't listed on Coinbase, makes a long TAO play even riskier. Note that while Grayscale has many crypto funds, their token picks don't necessarily signify quality (e.g., Horizen). Grayscale is in the business of charging fees (e.g., ETH Trust 2.5% vs. ETH ETF 0.25%), so for them, launching overhyped tokens like MANA is more important.
Grayscale Trusts:
Bitcoin Trust (
GBTC) - Launched in September 2013.
Ethereum Trust (ETHE) - Launched in December 2017.
Litecoin Trust (LTCN) - Launched in March 2018.
Bitcoin Cash Trust (BCHG) - Launched in August 2017.
Ethereum Classic Trust (ETCG) - Launched in April 2017.
Zcash Trust (ZCSH) - Launched in October 2017.
Stellar Lumens Trust (GXLM) - Launched in January 2019.
Horizen Trust (HZEN) - Launched in August 2018.
Decentraland Trust ($EURONEXT:MANA) - Launched in March 2021.
Chainlink Trust (
LINK) - Launched in March 2021.
Basic Attention Token Trust (
BAT) - Launched in March 2021.
Livepeer Trust (
LPT) - Launched in March 2021.
Filecoin Trust ($TSX:FIL) - Launched in March 2021.
Solana Trust (SOL) - Launched in November 2021.
Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) - Launched in February 2018.
DeFi Fund - Launched in July 2021.
NEAR Trust and $Stacks Trust - Launched in May 2024.
Announcement: For those who have registered their Coinbase accounts in California, congratulations—you can now short
AVAX, LINK, 
DOT, and 
SHIB using futures. Can we get SOL futures too?
Follow for daily insights.
BTC) could go in either direction—either completing a correction up to the Bollinger Bands' moving average (BB MA) at 61.8k or correcting down to at least 55.9k or possibly touching the lower band at 53.8k. Since the upper weekly line at 62.7k has already been touched, the second scenario seems more likely. One piece of bad news or a group of whales could drive the market in either direction. Note: Global liquidity has been dropping for the last eight days. When liquidity drops, significant pumps are unlikely.Overall, we are likely finding the top of last week's correction upward and will soon start searching for a bottom, which may not be found immediately.
Alts Relative to BTC:
ETH is rebounding slightly better than BTC, possibly due to ETH's sharper drop. Altcoins closed Monday in the green, with SUI continuing to rally, up 28%, while TAO has posted four consecutive red days. SOL remains the star of this bull run, not correcting as much as expected.Bull Case: The market finishes correcting upward to 61.8k. We've been receiving mostly negative news. For contrarians, this might be the time to buy.
Bear Case: The bull run has lost momentum, and the market slowly goes sideways before dropping down to 53.8k.
Fear and Greed Index: 52.4, slightly higher.
Weekly: Accumulation zone. Market remains undecided.
Daily: Same as the weekly outlook.
4h: Although we are in an accumulation zone, the 4-hour chart shows we broke down below the BB MA level and are trailing beneath it, indicating further weakness.
1h : Accumulation zone with no clear signs of movement.
Prediction:
BTC likely to move sideways. ETH might rise slightly to 2.9k before dropping to 2.2k.Opportunities:
SOL: Broke down the weekly level but is hovering around it—consider shorting.SUI: Broke up the weekly level due to unnatural demand from news. Unless more money flows in, this level won't hold in a bear market—consider shorting.AR: Broke down the weekly level—consider shorting.Reality: Correct yesterday 4h prediction, BTC trails lower after 3 black crows pattern.
Long TAO:
TAO's on-chain analytics aren't widely available, with only limited information from DefiLlama and proprietary data from taostats.io. According to DefiLlama, only 12.15% of TAO's total token supply is unlocked, compared to 26% for SUI, which also has more available data. This, along with the fact that TAO isn't listed on Coinbase, makes a long TAO play even riskier. Note that while Grayscale has many crypto funds, their token picks don't necessarily signify quality (e.g., Horizen). Grayscale is in the business of charging fees (e.g., ETH Trust 2.5% vs. ETH ETF 0.25%), so for them, launching overhyped tokens like MANA is more important.Grayscale Trusts:
Bitcoin Trust (
GBTC) - Launched in September 2013.Ethereum Trust (
ETHE) - Launched in December 2017.Litecoin Trust (
LTCN) - Launched in March 2018.Bitcoin Cash Trust (
BCHG) - Launched in August 2017.Ethereum Classic Trust (
ETCG) - Launched in April 2017.Zcash Trust (
ZCSH) - Launched in October 2017.Stellar Lumens Trust (
GXLM) - Launched in January 2019.Horizen Trust (
HZEN) - Launched in August 2018.Decentraland Trust ($EURONEXT:MANA) - Launched in March 2021.
Chainlink Trust (
LINK) - Launched in March 2021.Basic Attention Token Trust (
BAT) - Launched in March 2021.Livepeer Trust (
LPT) - Launched in March 2021.Filecoin Trust ($TSX:FIL) - Launched in March 2021.
Solana Trust (
SOL) - Launched in November 2021.Digital Large Cap Fund (
GDLC) - Launched in February 2018.DeFi Fund - Launched in July 2021.
NEAR Trust and $Stacks Trust - Launched in May 2024.Announcement: For those who have registered their Coinbase accounts in California, congratulations—you can now short
AVAX, LINK, DOT, and SHIB using futures. Can we get SOL futures too?Follow for daily insights.
Follow for daily updates.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Follow for daily updates.
Get market overview and signals daily, straight into your inbox: evgcapital.substack.com
First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
Get market overview and signals daily, straight into your inbox: evgcapital.substack.com
First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.