First ATH BREAKOUT Before Halving?
Hello, Traders! Today, We have to Speak about King “₿”.
The Bitcoin Halving usually represents a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's ongoing evolution. Satoshi Nakamoto programmed an event into the Bitcoin network every 210,000 blocks or approximately every 4 years. This will continue until the mining of 21 million coins (estimated to occur in ≈2140) marks the end of the cryptocurrency's issuance. To gain an understanding of its impact, it is necessary to analyze historical data:
In Bitcoin's early days, miners received 50 BTC for every new block they added to the blockchain. However, after the 1st Halving (November 2012), that dropped to 25 BTC. Then, after the 2nd Halving (July 2016), it became 12.5 BTC. After the 3rd Halving, it's down to 6.25 BTC. The 4th Halving (April 2024) reduced the reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.
A review of historical data indicates that, in the period following each halving of Bitcoin, prices have consistently risen within a span of six to twelve months. However, the current situation is distinct. Why? This time, the price of Bitcoin reached a new high before the halving event occurred. The graph reveals that the previous ATH was achieved in November 2021 but was subsequently surpassed on 24 March 2024. It is noteworthy that the halving event occurred on May 1, 2024.
However, it's crucial to note that the relationship between halving events and price fluctuations is complex and multifaceted. It is not just expectations and moods. Numerous factors, including market fundamental events and technological developments, contribute to Bitcoin's price dynamics. This time around, the landscape surrounding the Halving Event is undeniably different, characterized by numerous vital factors that distinguish it from previous cycles.
Foremost among these differentiators is the advent of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States, marking a significant milestone in Bitcoin's integration into mainstream finance. Introduced by prominent financial institutions, these ETFs have swiftly garnered attention and investment inflows, reshaping the market structure.
The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has been met with enthusiasm, evidenced by impressive net inflows totaling over $12 billion within a short span. While recent data indicates a slowdown in net inflows and a temporary outflow streak leading up to the halving, the long-term implications of these ETFs on Bitcoin's demand dynamics are profound. Consistent daily inflows into these products could provide significant support for Bitcoin's price, particularly as the rate of newly mined Bitcoin decreases post-halving.
With the Halving Event now behind us, what's in store for its future? Time will reveal the answer, but with these fundamental factors in play, one can't help but hope for the best. What do you think?
The Bitcoin Halving usually represents a significant milestone in the cryptocurrency's ongoing evolution. Satoshi Nakamoto programmed an event into the Bitcoin network every 210,000 blocks or approximately every 4 years. This will continue until the mining of 21 million coins (estimated to occur in ≈2140) marks the end of the cryptocurrency's issuance. To gain an understanding of its impact, it is necessary to analyze historical data:
- 1st Halving (Nov 2012): Price was ≈$12.0 (Pre-Halving), escalating to an unprecedented peak of ≈$1.240 in November 2013.
- 2nd Halving (July 2016): The price stood at ≈$600 (Pre-Halving), surging to a remarkable high of ≈$19.756 in December 2017.
- 3rd Halving (May 2020): The price was ≈$8.500 (Pre-Halving), catapulting to a new pinnacle of ≈$64.800 in April 2021 and ≈$69.000 in November 2021.
- 4th Halving (April 2024): At the time of this writing, the price has risen from ≈$64,000 to nearly $66,000.
In Bitcoin's early days, miners received 50 BTC for every new block they added to the blockchain. However, after the 1st Halving (November 2012), that dropped to 25 BTC. Then, after the 2nd Halving (July 2016), it became 12.5 BTC. After the 3rd Halving, it's down to 6.25 BTC. The 4th Halving (April 2024) reduced the reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.
A review of historical data indicates that, in the period following each halving of Bitcoin, prices have consistently risen within a span of six to twelve months. However, the current situation is distinct. Why? This time, the price of Bitcoin reached a new high before the halving event occurred. The graph reveals that the previous ATH was achieved in November 2021 but was subsequently surpassed on 24 March 2024. It is noteworthy that the halving event occurred on May 1, 2024.
However, it's crucial to note that the relationship between halving events and price fluctuations is complex and multifaceted. It is not just expectations and moods. Numerous factors, including market fundamental events and technological developments, contribute to Bitcoin's price dynamics. This time around, the landscape surrounding the Halving Event is undeniably different, characterized by numerous vital factors that distinguish it from previous cycles.
Foremost among these differentiators is the advent of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States, marking a significant milestone in Bitcoin's integration into mainstream finance. Introduced by prominent financial institutions, these ETFs have swiftly garnered attention and investment inflows, reshaping the market structure.
The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has been met with enthusiasm, evidenced by impressive net inflows totaling over $12 billion within a short span. While recent data indicates a slowdown in net inflows and a temporary outflow streak leading up to the halving, the long-term implications of these ETFs on Bitcoin's demand dynamics are profound. Consistent daily inflows into these products could provide significant support for Bitcoin's price, particularly as the rate of newly mined Bitcoin decreases post-halving.
With the Halving Event now behind us, what's in store for its future? Time will reveal the answer, but with these fundamental factors in play, one can't help but hope for the best. What do you think?
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.