Big Players Playing their Plays on Bitcoin Part 4

Updated

In the last updates i said that we have set the high for this correctional upwave around 8700 and a few hours and saying earlier today around 8750 that i we COULD have set the high for the day. Not because i am the King or the Master :) no, price was getting very close to the resistance of the bear flag so there was not much room left to go higher. Unless we would see a big squeeze and bulls would invalidate the bear flag and end this big drop. Now we made a quick and fast drop and are almost conforming the break of the bear flag. Alts have dropped allot as well and some even dropped below their support levels already.

As i mentioned in my previous analysis, i assumed there are 2 options. First is the bullish scenario, that we drop towards the 8000 support level, buyers come in again and price moves up and would resume the med term bull trend again. Second option would be a real bear flag and that price drops to the low 7K's. There things could still turn up again, still no real reason to say it can't. I have not read the details of that Korean exchange being raided, but it's no real surprise actually. I even mentioned a day or 2 before that event that the whole crypto world already forgot about all the bad news facts and the frauduleus exchanges. And there you have it, a small reality check again.

I have mentioned my opinion about Consensus 2018, that is that i completely ignore it and think it's just one of those fairy tales that has been pushed into the crypto world again. Many still think prices will jump up because of that, because it happened several times in the past. My followers have asked me many times about this, but just think about it this way. If the whole crypto world is aware of this fact. When would you start to buy? Days or even weeks before the event, or would you wait until the event starts? Just think about it, knowing there is allot of smart in the market and the whole market is aware of it. And would everyone sell like the past week, right before the event starts?

Overall the market the strength of the market seems to be gone completely again, it seemed unstoppable until a week ago and now it almost seems like the tables have turned already. Showing one weak rally after the other and making lower lows on these time frames. But don't get desperate right away, correction's usually happen fast, so it still fits the bullish scenario. I think we are going down towards the low 7K's, i have a target around 7200, but that is only when the 8200 support breaks. So the blue line in the charts is a very realistic option, but i think we will follow the red line. Now it's just a line showing to which price we can go, doesn't mean we will drop in a straight line. If we do drop very fast, than we have to assume we will break the 6K as well. So the market has to decide the next week what it's intention's are for the coming period.

For more information read some of my previous analysis. I have been receiving many PM messages, but i can't keep up anymore and it costs me to much time. Time that i could spend watching the markets for my self and for you, instead of answering questions of which i already have given the answers to. So please read my analysis, the updates and some of my previous analysis first. I promise you will learn allot while doing that.

Don't forget to like if you appreciate what i am doing here :)

My previous analysis

Big Players Playing their Plays on Bitcoin Part 3

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So it dropped out of that big bear flag as i showed you in my previous analysis, this picture is a zoom in. The drop has cooled down and price has been moving sideways inside a small bear flag that is still a retracement of the bigger bear flag. Now any flag can fail of course, but the chances are very big this time that we continue the drop towards 8000, because this setup. If bulls manage to push it back inside the big bear flag, so above 8500/8550, than things would at least cool down and maybe even turn up again

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Bulls and bear are fighting inside the flag it seems

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Looks like the bulls want to break up and test the small bear flag again on the upside and the big bear flag on the low side. So it seems they still try to push back into the big bear flag and leave this bearish momentum since yesterday behind them. There are always chances for both ways, i think the upside has no more than 25% chance

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Looks like the attempt has failed already, this would suggest an acceleration downwards, first small confirmation would be a break of 8330

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Dropped out of the small bear flag, but 8330 still holding. Above 8400ish things could cool down again

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And it's back inside the flag again, making a very small bear trap. Doesn't mean we go for new highs again, it's to small to suggest that. But does mean we could move to towards the 8500 resistance again

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WOW thats one big squeeze!! This changes almost everything, means it was a big bear trap!

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Time to zoom out again and think about whats going on now. This move could mean 2 things, to many short were in place and those had to be squeezed out first before dropping again, or the low is set and we move higher again.

As long as the previous high around 8800 is not broken, we have to assume it's still bearish. But things have changed now of course!

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Any one knows whats going on with ZEC? just got pumped +30%. Consensus? :)

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Sometimes i see a squeeze coming, but i have to admit, not this one. I was just about to leave my workspace :)

Anyway, the bull flag looks very strong still and it's right against the resistance of the previous high. This would suggest it will probably break upwards, if it does the target should be around 9000/9200. I am not trading it, staying i don't like to trade these squeezes anymore, to much have failed lately. But i have to say, a 400 point squeeze does have some reliability. Good luck guys, i will come back later today

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Posted an extra update

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So it broke the bull flag on the upside, made a small rally but dropped again to test the flag as support. This should hold, the 8800, otherwise it would be a first small signal of weakness. If it drops below the 7700 we have to assume the attempt has failed

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First signs of the bull flag failing

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The 8700 seems to hold so far, seeing some buying. But still inside a small bear flag

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Zooming out it shows that 8500 (if we get there) could still be a support

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So made a small jump up again, but against the resistance of the bull flag. The whole 8700/8900 is a big resistance area (former big support). I think we are going down from here, at least towards the 8500, but these jumps up and down are starting to confuse a bit

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Could still be inside that bull flag, waiting to make that fake break out. I thought we had that moment yesterday, but could still happen. But to be honoust, price moves like crap again, so i can't really say which way we will go. As long as we stay below the 9000, my view is 100% downwards.

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Assuming the big bear flag has value, it broke the support line again. But chances are they won't let it drop below the lows. Maybe the stakes are to high with Consensus?

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No bounce yet, so probably drop some more

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The longer this flag takes, chances increase we go up again, but so far as long as we stay below 8550 it's almost certain we make another drop. It's a weak flag so far

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But what i don't understand yet, why don't they push it higher. A reason could be, not enough short positions have build up with stops at 8600 to create another squeeze up, or they have not yet sold enough at these prices and get let it drop yet. This is all guessing of what could be going on, can't say for sure of course. Just thinking out loud :)

Here we can see those support buying candles, that just pup up out of nowhere. So far that support at the green area is holding

botje11

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