In the past 2 BTC bear markets, shown below, BTC does at least 3 halvings when it crashes, pulling back ~40-70% each time. The last pullback is typically ~60%, marking capitulation.
In the current market we've seen two halvings, and now we're on a third pullback, which could be the capitulation. We seem to have started a leg 4 up, which could run as high as 32-34k before resuming the bear trend for leg 5. ABC after that could drop us as low as 15-17k, but I doubt it lasts long below $20k, if it gets there.
In the current market we've seen two halvings, and now we're on a third pullback, which could be the capitulation. We seem to have started a leg 4 up, which could run as high as 32-34k before resuming the bear trend for leg 5. ABC after that could drop us as low as 15-17k, but I doubt it lasts long below $20k, if it gets there.
Note
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I like 15-17k now, but could see a 50% bounce hereNote
I was right again, looking for $10-12k for the last capitulation leg.Note
It might not have completed the ABC yet thoNote
If it makes a new low, this is what it might look like
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I updated the chart's fibs and EW. Here's a close up Note
I would think 15k holds supp for at least a week as a psychological level, but 12k is the 1.6 fib it should settle on. Then maybe a 5th leg setup to 15k and then halve back down again $7500-6200 range. On the fib channel down, it's running out of room. The 1 down is about zero, but the last support bounced off the .618, which matches with the vertical 2.6 fib of $6200.
Zoomed out
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.