BTC ... does RENKO confirm we still need to drop?
Updated
Hello gang.
OK so here's the Renko on the daily.
If you've seen my previous ideas, you will notice I've been talking about a big triangle wave, along with some other people doing TA. These waves are bouncing in a big triangular formation ... 20k to 6k, 6k to 11.7k, 11.7k to 6.5k, 6.5k to 10k and now the final wave ... which has broken down below the triangle with a CURRENT bottom of 5.9k.
Each of these long waves from the top of the triangle to the bottom and vice-versa I have found are a complex correction wave ... a WXY pattern. The WXY is a (5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3-5) system ... each bracket is (W)-(X)-(Y). So basically an (impulse-abc-impulse) for W, abc for X. and (impulse-abc-impulse) for Y. Sorry for going into detail, but this is really important to understand.
Again I want to stress ... I have counted this system in ALL the major waves in the triangle, and I expect this correction down from 10k to be NO different.
Turn to the Renko now ... start at the 9.99k top, and notice the red blocks are the impulse waves and the green blocks are the abc corrections. We have completed (impulse-abc-impulse)-(abc)-(impulse-abc- ...) and are working on that last impulse. Each of these red impulse waves are around 1300 to 1600 points long, average is around 1400 points. Applying that to this impulse, it takes BTC to 5350!
I've also done an elliott wave count on the normal candle chart ... and if I compare that to the impulse we had from 7700 down, once again, it says we should hit between 5350 and 5400. There is key support at 5350/5400 that should be taken into consideration as well.
At the moment we are in wave 4 ... and that can take us to 7250 to 73XX territory. Then I expect it to go down. Can't say when as this can now sideways for a few days ... but I do see one last collapse ... I'm hoping to see a nice V shaped bottom ... and yes it can go lower than 5.4k ... key support below that is 5k and 4.5k. I would be very surprised if we go lower than 4.5k without a significant correction first, or at least weeks/months of sideways and disinterest.
Is a bounce from here possible ... yes, sure ... but I'd say lower probability ... and the only logical reason I see for that is the mass public viewing the 5900 to 6000 level as HARD support ... given it's been tested a few times. Once again, this is a low probability scenario for me right now.
One last thing ... if we do bounce from 5.4k, I don't believe that is the absolute bottom. I see a few weeks of rallying, then another bear market. There is an important log trend line that needs to be touched to get us out of this mess ... it currently sits at around 3k ... it is rising as time progresses.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make financial decisions with this info. For educational purposes only.
OK so here's the Renko on the daily.
If you've seen my previous ideas, you will notice I've been talking about a big triangle wave, along with some other people doing TA. These waves are bouncing in a big triangular formation ... 20k to 6k, 6k to 11.7k, 11.7k to 6.5k, 6.5k to 10k and now the final wave ... which has broken down below the triangle with a CURRENT bottom of 5.9k.
Each of these long waves from the top of the triangle to the bottom and vice-versa I have found are a complex correction wave ... a WXY pattern. The WXY is a (5-3-5)-(3)-(5-3-5) system ... each bracket is (W)-(X)-(Y). So basically an (impulse-abc-impulse) for W, abc for X. and (impulse-abc-impulse) for Y. Sorry for going into detail, but this is really important to understand.
Again I want to stress ... I have counted this system in ALL the major waves in the triangle, and I expect this correction down from 10k to be NO different.
Turn to the Renko now ... start at the 9.99k top, and notice the red blocks are the impulse waves and the green blocks are the abc corrections. We have completed (impulse-abc-impulse)-(abc)-(impulse-abc- ...) and are working on that last impulse. Each of these red impulse waves are around 1300 to 1600 points long, average is around 1400 points. Applying that to this impulse, it takes BTC to 5350!
I've also done an elliott wave count on the normal candle chart ... and if I compare that to the impulse we had from 7700 down, once again, it says we should hit between 5350 and 5400. There is key support at 5350/5400 that should be taken into consideration as well.
At the moment we are in wave 4 ... and that can take us to 7250 to 73XX territory. Then I expect it to go down. Can't say when as this can now sideways for a few days ... but I do see one last collapse ... I'm hoping to see a nice V shaped bottom ... and yes it can go lower than 5.4k ... key support below that is 5k and 4.5k. I would be very surprised if we go lower than 4.5k without a significant correction first, or at least weeks/months of sideways and disinterest.
Is a bounce from here possible ... yes, sure ... but I'd say lower probability ... and the only logical reason I see for that is the mass public viewing the 5900 to 6000 level as HARD support ... given it's been tested a few times. Once again, this is a low probability scenario for me right now.
One last thing ... if we do bounce from 5.4k, I don't believe that is the absolute bottom. I see a few weeks of rallying, then another bear market. There is an important log trend line that needs to be touched to get us out of this mess ... it currently sits at around 3k ... it is rising as time progresses.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make financial decisions with this info. For educational purposes only.
Note
All, I just picked up a typo in my idea, courtesy of a fellow telegram member. "At the moment we are in wave 4 ... and that can take us to 7250 to 73XX territory. Then I expect it to go down."
Should read "... and that can take us to 6250 to 63XX territory."
My mind obviously can't wrap itself around us being so low! Was in a rush to get this idea out last night!
Note
The recent bounce has made it interesting. Two possibilities:- We had a very weak ending to the wave 5 ... it is possible, but I don't think this is over.
- The chaos over the past two weeks is making it difficult to count the sub waves and so we have yet to complete wave 5. It is possible, especially when we ranged from 6.1k to 6.8k ... there are different interpretations.
At this stage I'm 50/50 ... and I also do believe we are close to a short term bottom (I could be wrong, but that's the strategy I'm playing, based on my data). So I'm starting to enter long positions. Entries aren't too bad, so I would be looking to add at 5.35k to 5.5k, if we get there. If we do break up, I have my current positions to average my cost down. I'd protect with a stop below the 5.3k support.
Note
More and more indication that this drop may be over. That green doji close on the daily ... could be a sign of the bottom ... for sure it creates stronger support there. Going back and reading the elliott waves ... I'm now more sure I count all 5 waves have been completed.There is still one interpretation of the waves that says we still have some downside to go ... and that basically says it will be BAD ... as in BTC has created only the first motive wave of an impulse (so two more downs to go). I'm thinking this is less likely now.
Bears may have a tough time getting through the 5700 - 5900 support created now, unless they take it much higher to eventually do a long squeeze and force liquidations.
Also, we have a bull flag forming, with a target of around 6600/6700. If we hit that, FOMO will start setting in, although we have to content with the STRONG resistance at 7850 - 7900.
Let's see ... I'm still holding onto my 50% long.
Note
Hello all, we are reaching the end of a triangle, I have a higher probability of a drop to around 5880 before we bounce up ... which is what I show on this chart, but its possible that we have completed wave B and we get a breakout up, to the top green bold dashed line ... where I expect everyone and their pet dog to start shorting.
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